NYSE$TAP

Molson Coors Brewing Co · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Molson Coors delivered sixth consecutive quarter of top-line growth and navigated global inflationary pressures.

Molson Coors reported a net sales increase of 4.0% and 7.9% in constant currency, driven by positive net pricing and favorable sales mix. The company reaffirmed its 2022 guidance for top and bottom-line growth, while earnings per share was $0.99 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.32.

  • Net sales increased 4.0% reported and 7.9% in constant currency, primarily due to positive net pricing and favorable sales mix.
  • Net sales per hectoliter on a brand volume basis increased 9.2% in constant currency.
  • U.S. GAAP net income attributable to MCBC of $216.4 million, $0.99 per share on a diluted basis.
  • Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.32 declined $0.43 per share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.52B

Previous: $3.44B+2.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.32

Previous: $1.75-24.6%
Total Financial Volume

22.809

Previous: 22.851-0.2%
Free Cash Flow

$216M

Previous: $453M-52.2%
Net Income

$216M

Previous: $453M-52.2%
Operating Income

$330M

Previous: $531M-37.9%
Gross Profit

$984M

Previous: $1.19B-17.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$525M

Previous: $616M-14.8%
Total Assets

$26.7B

Previous: $27.6B-3.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Molson Coors · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.52B

Q3 2022+2.4%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molson Coors · $2.94B total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Americas Segment Net Sales
    $2.38B
  • EMEA&APAC Segment Net Sales
    $563M

Forward guidance

Molson Coors expects to achieve key financial targets for full year 2022, but macroeconomic uncertainties, including cost inflation and weakening demand in Central and Eastern Europe, could impact financial performance.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales: mid single-digit increase versus 2021 on a constant currency basis.
  • Underlying income (loss) before income taxes: high single-digit increase compared to 2021 on a constant currency basis.
  • Deleverage: We expect to achieve a net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio below 3.0x by the end of 2022.
  • Underlying free cash flow: $1.0 billion, plus or minus 10%.
  • Consolidated net interest expense: approximately $265 million, plus or minus 5%.

Headwinds

  • The inherent uncertainties that exist in the macroeconomic environment, including continued significant cost inflation, weakening demand in Central and Eastern Europe and the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar could impact our financial performance.
  • Due to increased inflationary cost pressures and weakening demand in Central and Eastern Europe, we expect underlying income (loss) before income taxes to be at the lower end of the range.
  • Underlying depreciation and amortization: approximately $700 million, plus or minus 5% from our previous guidance of $750 million, plus or minus 5%.
  • Underlying effective tax rate: in the range of 21% to 22% for 2022 from our previous guidance range of 22% to 24%.
  • Continued significant cost inflation

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

34 / 72 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-17.1%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.0%-0.5%-6.9%
Q4 2025+0.8%-1.8%-18.5%
Q3 2025+1.0%+7.2%+5.4%
Q1 2025-4.6%-2.9%-8.5%
Q4 2024+9.5%+13.4%+11.5%
Q3 2024+5.4%+9.5%+8.2%
Q2 2024+1.9%+3.6%+9.2%
Q1 2024-10.2%-9.0%-16.3%
Q4 2023-1.1%+0.1%+6.2%
Q3 2023+1.4%+1.6%+6.4%
Q2 2023-3.5%-6.4%-9.0%
Q1 2023+7.5%+7.3%+3.1%
Q4 2022+1.8%+3.4%-4.7%
Q3 2022-2.2%+1.5%+9.0%
Q2 2022-9.2%-9.4%-13.9%
Q1 2022-2.0%-2.2%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.7%+7.4%+11.1%
Q3 2021+1.1%+4.6%+4.5%
Q2 2021-1.3%-0.8%-4.1%
Q1 2021+5.9%+8.8%+12.4%
Q4 2020-10.1%-9.1%-4.8%
Q3 2020+7.1%+17.5%+42.2%
Q2 2020+2.2%+0.1%+3.2%
Q1 2020-15.7%-18.9%-17.8%
Q4 2019-4.6%-4.8%-26.7%
Q3 2019-3.6%-2.0%-7.7%
Q2 2019-7.8%-11.1%-9.8%
Q1 2019-6.7%-5.0%-14.3%
Q4 2018-8.7%-6.8%-7.5%
Q3 2018+13.4%+8.4%+13.0%
Q2 2018+2.7%+3.1%-0.4%
Q1 2018-17.1%-16.8%-14.0%
Q4 2017+8.0%+7.6%+5.9%
Q3 2017-2.2%-2.4%-2.1%
Q2 2017+1.9%+0.7%+0.9%
Q1 2017-3.8%-1.5%+1.6%
Q4 2016+2.9%+5.6%+2.1%
Q3 2016-0.2%-1.0%-8.8%
Q2 2016-1.2%-1.8%+1.6%
Q1 2016+1.4%
Q4 2015-0.0%
Q3 2015+0.2%
Q2 2015+3.7%
Q1 2015+1.4%
Q4 2014-4.4%
Q3 2014+4.1%
Q2 2014+3.7%
Q1 2014+6.2%
Q4 2013+3.6%
Q3 2013-1.9%
Q2 2013+5.4%
Q1 2013-2.5%
Q4 2012-2.4%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2012-2.5%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q2 2011+0.2%
Q4 2011+0.2%
Q3 2011-0.3%
Q1 2011-2.2%
Q2 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010+2.4%
Q4 2009-3.0%
Q1 2009-3.0%
Q1 2010-2.1%
Q2 2009+1.7%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q3 2009-2.9%
Q3 2008-2.9%
Q4 2008-2.4%
Q2 2008-2.4%

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