NYSE$SAM

Boston Beer Co Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in net income due to increases in advertising, promotional and selling expenses and lower gross margins, which were partially offset by increased revenue.

The Boston Beer Company reported a 33.8% increase in fourth-quarter net revenue to $301.3 million, driven by a 31.7% increase in shipments. However, net income decreased to $13.8 million, or $1.12 per diluted share, due to higher advertising, promotional, and selling expenses, and lower gross margins.

  • Depletions increased 25% from the comparable 13-week period in 2018.
  • Excluding the addition of the Dogfish Head brands, depletions increased 19% from the comparable 13-week period in the prior year.
  • Shipment volume was approximately 1.26 million barrels, a 31.7% increase from the comparable 13-week period in 2018.
  • Gross margin at 47.4% represented a decrease from the 51.9% margin realized in the fourth quarter of 2018, primarily as a result of higher processing costs due to increased production at third-party breweries and higher temporary labor requirements at Company-owned breweries, partially offset by price increases and cost saving initiatives at Company-owned breweries.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$301M

Previous: $225M+33.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.24

Previous: $1.86-33.3%
Barrels Sold

1.3K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$26.5M

Previous: $16.7M+58.4%
Free Cash Flow

$9.09M

Previous: $38.7M-76.5%
Net Income

$13.8M

Previous: $21.8M-36.9%
Operating Income

$17.7M

Previous: $28.9M-38.6%
Gross Profit

$143M

Previous: $117M+22.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$36.7M

Previous: $108M-66.2%
Total Assets

$1.05B

Previous: $640M+64.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.29M

Previous: $3.04M+8.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Boston Beer · Revenue · Quarterly

$301M

Q4 2019+33.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company currently projects full year 2020 Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of between $10.70 and $11.70.

Tailwinds

  • Depletions and shipments percentage increase of between 15% and 25%.
  • National price increases of between 1% and 3%.
  • Gross margin of between 49% and 51%.
  • Increased investment in advertising, promotional and selling expenses of between $80 million and $90 million.
  • Estimated capital spending of between $135 million and $155 million, which could be significantly higher, if deemed necessary to meet future growth.

Headwinds

  • Company’s actual 2020 earnings per share could vary significantly from the current projection.
  • This does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to the Company’s distributors.
  • Non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 27%, excluding the impact of ASU 2016-09.
  • There is uncertainty and variability of the impact of ASU 2016-09
  • The company is unable to provide a reconciliation of these Non-GAAP measures on a forward-looking basis.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+24.7%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-24.6%

Q2 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.2%-12.8%-25.2%
Q4 2025-7.1%-1.9%+1.0%
Q3 2025+5.7%-3.0%-10.8%
Q1 2025+2.3%+1.4%-4.3%
Q4 2024+3.0%+5.9%+2.2%
Q3 2024-1.8%-0.9%+3.7%
Q2 2024+7.0%+2.7%+3.7%
Q1 2024-3.4%-5.1%-11.1%
Q4 2023-13.3%-15.3%-15.3%
Q3 2023-14.2%-10.3%-8.3%
Q2 2023+16.5%+16.9%+13.1%
Q1 2023+1.8%-0.2%+1.9%
Q4 2022-13.1%-14.7%-19.6%
Q3 2022+20.0%+23.8%+12.3%
Q2 2022+6.6%+7.8%+10.1%
Q1 2022-2.9%-0.4%-8.9%
Q4 2021-6.0%-10.5%-4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%-2.2%-9.1%
Q2 2021-24.6%-23.0%-36.8%
Q1 2021+2.3%-3.2%-16.7%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.7%-5.2%
Q3 2020+19.8%+18.2%+3.0%
Q2 2020+24.7%+23.1%+33.0%
Q1 2020+5.9%+11.3%+26.7%
Q4 2019-7.0%-4.9%-28.1%
Q3 2019-1.0%+2.4%+4.1%
Q2 2019+3.3%+0.3%+11.3%
Q1 2019+8.0%+9.5%+20.8%
Q4 2018+14.1%+13.2%+6.4%
Q3 2018-0.3%+13.7%+1.2%
Q2 2018-15.1%-15.9%-4.5%
Q1 2018-0.8%+2.7%+10.0%
Q4 2017-13.6%-12.4%-3.3%
Q3 2017-7.1%-1.1%-1.3%
Q2 2017+15.0%+18.2%+10.7%
Q1 2017-2.4%-0.1%+0.4%
Q4 2016-6.4%-6.6%-11.6%
Q3 2016+1.5%+1.6%+3.2%
Q2 2016+14.6%+10.5%+13.8%
Q1 2016-10.5%
Q4 2015-4.0%
Q3 2015-10.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-7.8%
Q4 2014-10.9%
Q3 2014+8.5%
Q2 2014+1.2%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q4 2013+1.9%
Q3 2013-6.6%
Q2 2013+13.1%
Q1 2013-13.3%
Q4 2012-4.9%
Q3 2012+8.4%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q1 2011+5.0%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q2 2011-0.2%
Q3 2011+11.9%
Q4 2010-3.6%
Q2 2010-3.6%

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