NYSE$SAM

Boston Beer Co Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Boston Beer's Q3 2020 results reflected a significant increase in net revenue and net income compared to the same period last year, driven by shipment growth and depletions, partially offset by lower gross margins and increased operating expenses.

Boston Beer reported a strong third quarter with a 30.2% increase in net revenue to $492.8 million and an 80.6% increase in net income to $80.8 million, driven by shipment growth of 30.5%. Earnings per diluted share increased by 78.4% to $6.51.

  • Depletions increased 36% due to the growth of Truly Hard Seltzer and Twisted Tea brands, offset by declines in Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, and Dogfish Head brands.
  • Shipments increased 30.5% to approximately 2.1 million barrels.
  • Gross margin decreased to 48.8% due to higher processing costs from increased third-party brewery production.
  • The company estimates full-year 2020 shipments and depletions growth to be between 37% and 42%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$493M

Previous: $378M+30.2%
EPS (adj)

$6.51

Previous: $3.58+81.8%
Barrels Sold

2.1M

Previous: 1.6M+31.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$100M

Previous: -$66.8M-50.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$19.6M

Previous: -$22M+11.2%
Net Income

$80.8M

Previous: $44.7M+80.6%
Operating Income

$102M

Previous: $59.8M+70.1%
Gross Profit

$241M

Previous: $188M+28.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$157M

Previous: $27.1M+479.2%
Total Assets

$1.31B

Previous: $1.02B+29.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.63M

Previous: $3.23M+12.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Boston Beer · Revenue · Quarterly

$493M

Q3 2020+30.2%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is expecting all of their brands to grow in 2021 and are targeting overall volume growth rates to be between 35% and 45%.

Tailwinds

  • Depletions and shipments percentage increase between 35% and 45%.
  • National price increases of between 1% and 2%.
  • Gross margin of between 46% and 48%.
  • Increased investments in advertising, promotional and selling expenses of between $130 million and $150 million.
  • Non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 26%, excluding the impact of ASU 2016-09.

Headwinds

  • Estimated capital spending of between $300 million and $400 million, which could be significantly higher, if deemed necessary to meet future growth.
  • Gross margins and gross margin expectations will be negatively impacted until the volume growth stabilizes.
  • Higher processing costs due to increased production at third party breweries.
  • Increased usage of third-party breweries and an increasing percentage of variety packs in the Company’s overall product mix come at a higher incremental cost.
  • COVID-19 and the related On-Premise closures have negatively impacted Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head brands.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+24.7%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-24.6%

Q2 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.2%-12.8%-25.2%
Q4 2025-7.1%-1.9%+1.0%
Q3 2025+5.7%-3.0%-10.8%
Q1 2025+2.3%+1.4%-4.3%
Q4 2024+3.0%+5.9%+2.2%
Q3 2024-1.8%-0.9%+3.7%
Q2 2024+7.0%+2.7%+3.7%
Q1 2024-3.4%-5.1%-11.1%
Q4 2023-13.3%-15.3%-15.3%
Q3 2023-14.2%-10.3%-8.3%
Q2 2023+16.5%+16.9%+13.1%
Q1 2023+1.8%-0.2%+1.9%
Q4 2022-13.1%-14.7%-19.6%
Q3 2022+20.0%+23.8%+12.3%
Q2 2022+6.6%+7.8%+10.1%
Q1 2022-2.9%-0.4%-8.9%
Q4 2021-6.0%-10.5%-4.9%
Q3 2021+2.8%-2.2%-9.1%
Q2 2021-24.6%-23.0%-36.8%
Q1 2021+2.3%-3.2%-16.7%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.7%-5.2%
Q3 2020+19.8%+18.2%+3.0%
Q2 2020+24.7%+23.1%+33.0%
Q1 2020+5.9%+11.3%+26.7%
Q4 2019-7.0%-4.9%-28.1%
Q3 2019-1.0%+2.4%+4.1%
Q2 2019+3.3%+0.3%+11.3%
Q1 2019+8.0%+9.5%+20.8%
Q4 2018+14.1%+13.2%+6.4%
Q3 2018-0.3%+13.7%+1.2%
Q2 2018-15.1%-15.9%-4.5%
Q1 2018-0.8%+2.7%+10.0%
Q4 2017-13.6%-12.4%-3.3%
Q3 2017-7.1%-1.1%-1.3%
Q2 2017+15.0%+18.2%+10.7%
Q1 2017-2.4%-0.1%+0.4%
Q4 2016-6.4%-6.6%-11.6%
Q3 2016+1.5%+1.6%+3.2%
Q2 2016+14.6%+10.5%+13.8%
Q1 2016-10.5%
Q4 2015-4.0%
Q3 2015-10.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-7.8%
Q4 2014-10.9%
Q3 2014+8.5%
Q2 2014+1.2%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q4 2013+1.9%
Q3 2013-6.6%
Q2 2013+13.1%
Q1 2013-13.3%
Q4 2012-4.9%
Q3 2012+8.4%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q1 2011+5.0%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q2 2011-0.2%
Q3 2011+11.9%
Q4 2010-3.6%
Q2 2010-3.6%

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