NYSE$RYAM
Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc · Q4 2022 earnings
Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Rayonier AM announced solid Q4 2022 earnings results in line with guidance and improving outlook for 2023.
Rayonier Advanced Materials reported net sales of $500 million for the fourth quarter, up 34 percent from the prior year quarter. Income from continuing operations for the quarter was $4 million, up 114 percent from the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for the quarter was $55 million, up 104 percent from the prior year quarter.
- Net sales for the fourth quarter of $500 million, up $126 million, or 34 percent, from prior year quarter
- Income from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of $4 million, up $32 million, or 114 percent, from prior year quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of $55 million, up $28 million, or 104 percent, from prior year quarter.
- 2023 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $200 million to $215 million expected to drive $30 million to $60 million of Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Rayonier AM · Revenue · Quarterly
$500M
Revenue by segment
Rayonier AM · $125M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022
- Paperboard$67M+28.8%53.6%
- High-Yield Pulp$58M+100.0%46.4%
Forward guidance
Overall, income (loss) from continuing operations is expected to be between $(8) million and $12 million, with Adjusted EBITDA between $200 million and $215 million for 2023. The Company expects to spend approximately $110 million of custodial capital expenditures, including $15 million to $20 million of catch-up maintenance capital, and discretionary strategic capital expenditures of approximately $30 million to $35 million, net of financing. Strategic capital may be modulated as necessary to support Adjusted Free Cash Flow. Overall, the Company expects to generate $30 million to $60 million of Adjusted Free Cash Flow in 2023.
Tailwinds
- Paperboard prices for 2023 are expected to continue to increase from 2022 levels, driven by strong demand in both the packaging and commercial printing end markets.
- Sales volumes are expected to increase slightly, driven by improved logistics, while raw material prices reduce as pulp markets decline.
- The reopening of the Chinese economy may provide catalyst for more stable pricing.
- Sales volumes are expected to improve slightly in 2023, primarily due to improved productivity and logistics.
- Average sales prices for cellulose specialties in 2023 are expected to be high single-digit percent higher than average 2022 sales prices.
Headwinds
- Commodity sales prices are expected to decline versus 2022 levels, in line with industry forecasts for fluff and viscose cellulose pricing.
- Fluff market demand remains resilient but at lower prices than fourth quarter levels.
- Viscose markets started the year soft
- Raw material prices are expected to remain elevated, offset by benefits expected from prior strategic capital investments.
- High-yield pulp markets have declined as global economic demand slows, impacting sales price.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022
-0.1%
Avg return
Earnings day
+2.0%
Avg return
5 days after
+6.3%
Avg return
30 days after
43%
23 / 53 earnings
Positive
+34.0%
Q1 2016
Best reaction
-40.2%
Q2 2019
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +5.7% | -0.6% | — | |
| Q4 2025 | +16.5% | +9.6% | +13.3% | |
| Q3 2025 | -8.9% | -4.3% | -3.5% | |
| Q1 2025 | -6.6% | -7.1% | -7.6% | |
| Q4 2024 | -17.6% | -28.0% | -33.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | +20.9% | +22.5% | +5.3% | |
| Q2 2024 | +33.5% | +30.0% | +39.9% | |
| Q1 2024 | -0.5% | +12.2% | +36.9% | |
| Q4 2023 | -21.9% | -13.7% | +9.1% | |
| Q3 2023 | +4.4% | +6.7% | +17.5% | |
| Q2 2023 | -23.4% | -23.2% | -30.2% | |
| Q1 2023 | -17.5% | -21.1% | -20.6% | |
| Q4 2022 | +27.9% | +30.3% | -3.7% | |
| Q3 2022 | +31.9% | +56.9% | +73.8% | |
| Q2 2022 | +15.3% | +26.5% | +14.7% | |
| Q1 2022 | +14.4% | +5.3% | -25.7% | |
| Q4 2021 | +6.4% | +13.3% | +29.9% | |
| Q3 2021 | -5.3% | -10.1% | -26.0% | |
| Q2 2021 | -4.3% | +2.4% | +3.0% | |
| Q1 2021 | -26.7% | -18.6% | -17.4% | |
| Q4 2020 | -7.8% | +22.7% | +8.0% | |
| Q3 2020 | +12.9% | +11.4% | +114.7% | |
| Q2 2020 | +10.2% | +10.9% | +11.9% | |
| Q1 2020 | +9.4% | +41.7% | +130.9% | |
| Q4 2019 | -17.8% | -9.3% | -55.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | -18.6% | +0.9% | -8.8% | |
| Q2 2019 | -40.2% | -41.6% | -22.7% | |
| Q1 2019 | -35.2% | -40.0% | -52.9% | |
| Q4 2018 | -6.0% | -3.7% | -13.1% | |
| Q3 2018 | +6.0% | +5.9% | +5.0% | |
| Q2 2018 | +11.4% | +14.6% | +17.9% | |
| Q1 2018 | -8.7% | -5.1% | -9.6% | |
| Q4 2017 | +12.3% | +10.2% | +9.7% | |
| Q3 2017 | +7.2% | +16.0% | +30.5% | |
| Q2 2017 | -5.5% | -7.1% | -7.1% | |
| Q1 2017 | -8.1% | +0.5% | +31.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | -20.8% | -19.6% | -21.8% | |
| Q3 2016 | -5.6% | -8.9% | +5.1% | |
| Q2 2016 | +4.7% | -11.0% | -10.7% | |
| Q1 2016 | +34.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -0.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | +15.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +15.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +12.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +12.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -0.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -0.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -9.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -3.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | -8.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | -1.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -12.6% | — | — |
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