NYSE$RYAM

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Rayonier AM's financial performance significantly improved in Q4 2020, driven by higher lumber and High Purity Cellulose prices and successful refinancing.

Rayonier Advanced Materials reported a net income of $9 million for Q4 2020, a significant improvement compared to the $57 million loss in the same quarter of the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $53 million, up $44 million year-over-year. The company completed a refinancing to extend maturities, remove financial maintenance covenants, and enhance liquidity.

  • Income from continuing operations was $9 million, a $66 million increase from Q4 2019.
  • Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations increased by $44 million to $53 million, driven by higher lumber and High Purity Cellulose prices.
  • The company completed refinancing to extend maturities and enhance liquidity.
  • Free Cash Flow was $73 million through the year ended December 31, 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$508M

Previous: $468M+8.5%
EPS (adj)

-$0.03

Previous: -$0.78+96.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$53M

No prior period
Interest Expense

$17M

Previous: $18M-5.6%
Capital Expenditures

$34.3M

Previous: $22M+56.1%
Free Cash Flow

$73M

Previous: -$4.16M+1856.9%
Net Income

$9M

Previous: $29M-69.0%
Operating Income

$37M

Previous: -$32M+215.6%
Gross Profit

$57M

Previous: $12M+375.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$94M

Previous: $64M+46.9%
Total Assets

$2.53B

Previous: $2.48B+2.0%
Stock-Based Comp

-$240K

Previous: $835K-128.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Rayonier AM · Revenue · Quarterly

$508M

Q4 2020+8.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Rayonier AM · $94M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Paperboard
    $49M+0.0%
  • High-Yield Pulp
    $45M-16.7%

Forward guidance

The Company expects higher prices for both pulp and newsprint in the near-term. Additionally, the Company continues to manage production of its newsprint facility in order to minimize costs and improve sales mix.

Tailwinds

  • Prices for cellulose specialties are expected to decline slightly relative to 2020 while prices for commodity products, fluff and viscose pulps, will increase significantly in the first quarter and are forecasted to remain elevated for the near-term.
  • Overall, the Company expects increased pricing from 2020 levels while total volumes and mix for 2021 are expected to remain steady compared to 2020 as increased productivity will be offset by an extended maintenance outage at the Jesup facility in the second quarter.
  • Prices for lumber continue to remain near all-time high levels driven by exceptional demand in the U.S with housing starts in January 2021 of 1.6 million units, seasonally adjusted, and building permits of 1.9 million, while repair and remodel activity remains elevated as investment in homes remains attractive.
  • Paperboard prices are expected to increase slightly in early 2021 given solid demand for packaging grades and announced price increases from larger competitors in the industry.
  • Larger competitors in both pulp and newsprint markets have recently announced price increases, and the Company expects higher prices for both products in the near-term.

Headwinds

  • Certain chemical prices are now trending higher and, overall, future input prices and availability of these inputs remain difficult to predict due to the current unprecedented economic conditions.
  • Overall profitability is expected to remain flat as price and volume benefits are expected to be offset by increased raw material costs.
  • The Company expects lower newsprint volumes in 2021 compared to 2020.
  • An extended maintenance outage at the Jesup facility in the second quarter will offset increased productivity.
  • There remains no discussion about a full resolution to the softwood lumber dispute which, based on most recent disputes, would likely result in the U.S. returning all or the vast majority of the duties previously paid.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.3%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

23 / 53 earnings

Positive

+34.0%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-40.2%

Q2 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2025+16.5%+9.6%+13.3%
Q3 2025-8.9%-4.3%-3.5%
Q1 2025-6.6%-7.1%-7.6%
Q4 2024-17.6%-28.0%-33.5%
Q3 2024+20.9%+22.5%+5.3%
Q2 2024+33.5%+30.0%+39.9%
Q1 2024-0.5%+12.2%+36.9%
Q4 2023-21.9%-13.7%+9.1%
Q3 2023+4.4%+6.7%+17.5%
Q2 2023-23.4%-23.2%-30.2%
Q1 2023-17.5%-21.1%-20.6%
Q4 2022+27.9%+30.3%-3.7%
Q3 2022+31.9%+56.9%+73.8%
Q2 2022+15.3%+26.5%+14.7%
Q1 2022+14.4%+5.3%-25.7%
Q4 2021+6.4%+13.3%+29.9%
Q3 2021-5.3%-10.1%-26.0%
Q2 2021-4.3%+2.4%+3.0%
Q1 2021-26.7%-18.6%-17.4%
Q4 2020-7.8%+22.7%+8.0%
Q3 2020+12.9%+11.4%+114.7%
Q2 2020+10.2%+10.9%+11.9%
Q1 2020+9.4%+41.7%+130.9%
Q4 2019-17.8%-9.3%-55.2%
Q3 2019-18.6%+0.9%-8.8%
Q2 2019-40.2%-41.6%-22.7%
Q1 2019-35.2%-40.0%-52.9%
Q4 2018-6.0%-3.7%-13.1%
Q3 2018+6.0%+5.9%+5.0%
Q2 2018+11.4%+14.6%+17.9%
Q1 2018-8.7%-5.1%-9.6%
Q4 2017+12.3%+10.2%+9.7%
Q3 2017+7.2%+16.0%+30.5%
Q2 2017-5.5%-7.1%-7.1%
Q1 2017-8.1%+0.5%+31.2%
Q4 2016-20.8%-19.6%-21.8%
Q3 2016-5.6%-8.9%+5.1%
Q2 2016+4.7%-11.0%-10.7%
Q1 2016+34.0%
Q4 2015-0.4%
Q3 2015+15.5%
Q2 2015+15.4%
Q1 2014+12.4%
Q1 2015+12.4%
Q4 2012-0.4%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2014-9.4%
Q3 2013-3.4%
Q3 2014-8.1%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q4 2013-1.2%
Q2 2014-12.6%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro