NYSE$PM

Philip Morris International Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Philip Morris International's financial performance was marked by growth in smoke-free products and strategic acquisitions.

Philip Morris International (PMI) reported its Q4 and Full Year 2022 results, demonstrating growth in key areas despite a challenging operating environment. The company's focus on smoke-free products is paying off, with this category now accounting for a significant portion of total net revenues. Strategic acquisitions, such as Swedish Match, are expected to further drive the company's transformation.

  • Total shipment volume increased by 1.2%, driven by a 26.1% increase in HTU shipments.
  • Net revenues from smoke-free products accounted for 36.0% of total net revenues.
  • Total IQOS users at quarter-end estimated at approximately 24.9 million.
  • PMI announced a long-term collaboration with KT&G to commercialize KT&G’s innovative smoke-free devices and consumables on an exclusive, worldwide basis (excluding South Korea).

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$8.15B

Previous: $8.1B+0.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.39

Previous: $1.35+3.0%
Capital Expenditures

$347M

Previous: $289M+20.1%
Free Cash Flow

$2.75B

Previous: $3.74B-26.6%
Net Income

$2.4B

Previous: $2.09B+14.5%
Operating Income

$2.92B

Previous: $2.95B-0.8%
Gross Profit

$5.07B

Previous: $5.3B-4.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.21B

Previous: $4.5B-28.7%
Total Assets

$61.7B

Previous: $41.3B+49.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Philip Morris · Revenue · Quarterly

$8.15B

Q4 2022+0.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Philip Morris · $5.61B total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Combustible Products
    $5.61B-3.2%

Forward guidance

PMI forecasts for the full year 2023, including an expected organic top-line growth and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth, despite inflationary pressures and transitory impacts related to ILUMA deployment.

Tailwinds

  • Organic top-line growth of 7% to 8.5%.
  • Currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of 7% to 9%.
  • Continued strong growth from Swedish Match’s existing operations, underpinned by strong shipment volume growth for ZYN in the U.S.
  • HTU shipment volume of 125 to 130 billion units, reflecting an acceleration in growth versus 2022 on a total PMI basis.
  • Wellness and Healthcare segment net revenues of around $300 million.

Headwinds

  • Continued global inflationary pressures, primarily impacting cost of sales for the combustible tobacco business.
  • The continued transitory impacts associated with the ILUMA roll-out, including the margin impact of accelerated device replacements and higher initial costs of devices and consumables.
  • Incremental investments to drive future growth, including the commercialization of ILUMA and around $150 million with a broadly even split between the U.S. and the wellness and healthcare segment.
  • Adjusted operating income margin decline of 50 to 150 basis points on an organic basis.
  • Wellness and Healthcare segment with an adjusted operating loss of around $150 million, primarily due to investments in research and development.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

40 / 73 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-16.9%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.5%+5.0%+23.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+2.3%-6.6%
Q3 2025-4.0%-0.3%-1.5%
Q2 2025-0.4%+1.7%+0.1%
Q1 2025+2.3%+3.1%+8.6%
Q4 2024+10.9%+13.0%+15.2%
Q3 2024+10.5%+9.2%+10.3%
Q2 2024+3.9%+5.7%+12.0%
Q1 2024+5.3%+1.0%+5.9%
Q4 2023-2.5%-2.5%+1.4%
Q3 2023-0.7%-2.6%-1.4%
Q2 2023-1.3%-1.6%-4.5%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-8.2%
Q4 2022+1.1%+0.4%-2.9%
Q3 2022+0.0%+2.3%+11.3%
Q2 2022+6.8%+7.5%+11.5%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2021+3.7%+5.4%-14.6%
Q3 2021-0.4%-0.6%-6.1%
Q2 2021-1.4%+0.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+2.7%+3.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020+5.0%+6.7%+7.4%
Q3 2020-5.2%-4.4%-0.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+5.4%+7.3%
Q1 2020-4.9%-4.2%-8.3%
Q4 2019+4.2%+6.6%+4.0%
Q3 2019+1.8%+2.6%+7.2%
Q2 2019+9.5%+7.0%+4.8%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.7%+1.6%
Q4 2018+5.9%+6.7%+15.8%
Q3 2018+5.0%+4.7%+2.1%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.7%+3.5%
Q1 2018-16.9%-18.7%-20.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+4.2%+9.5%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.5%-8.8%
Q2 2017-1.7%-3.1%-5.2%
Q1 2017-3.8%-0.7%+0.7%
Q4 2016+5.4%+5.9%+14.9%
Q3 2016+0.5%+0.8%-6.5%
Q2 2016-3.3%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015+3.8%
Q1 2015+9.1%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+2.9%
Q2 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q4 2007+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+0.7%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q2 2009-2.1%
Q2 2008-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%

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