NYSE$PM

Philip Morris International Inc. · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong results driven by IQOS and revised full-year reported diluted EPS forecast.

Philip Morris International Inc. reported a strong start to the year with first-quarter results exceeding expectations, driven by the strength of IQOS. The company has raised its full-year outlook to reflect the positive momentum, anticipating organic adjusted diluted EPS growth of 11% to 13%.

  • Reported diluted EPS of $1.55, up by 32.5%; up by 23.9%, excluding currency.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.57, up by 29.8%; up by 21.5% on an organic basis.
  • Cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume down by 3.7%, reflecting cigarette shipment volume down by 7.3%, and heated tobacco unit shipment volume up by 29.9% to 21.7 billion units.
  • Net revenues up by 6.0%; up by 2.9% on an organic basis, with smoke-free products accounting for 28.0% of total net revenues.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.59B

Previous: $7.15B+6.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.57

Previous: $1.21+29.8%
Adj. Operating Margin

46.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$179M

Previous: -$170M-5.3%
Free Cash Flow

$2.24B

Previous: $1.66B+35.2%
Net Income

$2.42B

Previous: $1.83B+32.4%
Operating Income

$3.44B

Previous: $2.79B+23.5%
Gross Profit

$5.31B

Previous: $4.75B+11.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.9B

Previous: $3.75B+4.2%
Total Assets

$39.8B

Previous: $37.5B+6.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Philip Morris · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.59B

Q1 2021+6%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Philip Morris · $5.61B total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Combustible Products
    $5.61B-3.2%

Forward guidance

PMI revises its full-year reported diluted EPS forecast to a range of $5.93 to $6.03, representing a projected increase of around 15% to 17% versus reported diluted EPS of $5.16 in 2020. On an organic basis, this forecast represents a projected increase of around 11% to 13% versus adjusted diluted EPS of $5.17 in 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Better underlying business performance driven by the strength of IQOS, particularly in the EU Region and Japan.
  • A favorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, of approximately $0.20 per share, compared to approximately $0.25 per share previously.
  • Strong organic net revenue growth, partly driven by a favorable comparison versus the second quarter of 2020.
  • Continued improvement in adjusted operating income margin on an organic basis.
  • The assumption that many of PMI's key markets will have largely emerged from pandemic-related restrictions.

Headwinds

  • Asset impairment and exit costs of $0.02 per share resulting from product distribution restructuring in Korea and organizational design optimization.
  • Lack of near-term recovery in PMI's duty-free business given the uncertain outlook for global travel, with current dynamics persisting through year end.
  • A limited impact from the current global shortage of semiconductors on the supply of our electronic devices to consumers.
  • Incremental commercial investments, compared to the first half of 2021, of approximately $300 to $400 million.
  • Lower organic adjusted operating income margin expansion compared to the first half of 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

40 / 73 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-16.9%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.5%+5.0%+23.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+2.3%-6.6%
Q3 2025-4.0%-0.3%-1.5%
Q2 2025-0.4%+1.7%+0.1%
Q1 2025+2.3%+3.1%+8.6%
Q4 2024+10.9%+13.0%+15.2%
Q3 2024+10.5%+9.2%+10.3%
Q2 2024+3.9%+5.7%+12.0%
Q1 2024+5.3%+1.0%+5.9%
Q4 2023-2.5%-2.5%+1.4%
Q3 2023-0.7%-2.6%-1.4%
Q2 2023-1.3%-1.6%-4.5%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-8.2%
Q4 2022+1.1%+0.4%-2.9%
Q3 2022+0.0%+2.3%+11.3%
Q2 2022+6.8%+7.5%+11.5%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2021+3.7%+5.4%-14.6%
Q3 2021-0.4%-0.6%-6.1%
Q2 2021-1.4%+0.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+2.7%+3.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020+5.0%+6.7%+7.4%
Q3 2020-5.2%-4.4%-0.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+5.4%+7.3%
Q1 2020-4.9%-4.2%-8.3%
Q4 2019+4.2%+6.6%+4.0%
Q3 2019+1.8%+2.6%+7.2%
Q2 2019+9.5%+7.0%+4.8%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.7%+1.6%
Q4 2018+5.9%+6.7%+15.8%
Q3 2018+5.0%+4.7%+2.1%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.7%+3.5%
Q1 2018-16.9%-18.7%-20.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+4.2%+9.5%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.5%-8.8%
Q2 2017-1.7%-3.1%-5.2%
Q1 2017-3.8%-0.7%+0.7%
Q4 2016+5.4%+5.9%+14.9%
Q3 2016+0.5%+0.8%-6.5%
Q2 2016-3.3%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015+3.8%
Q1 2015+9.1%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+2.9%
Q2 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q4 2007+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+0.7%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q2 2009-2.1%
Q2 2008-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%

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