NYSE$PM

Philip Morris International Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Delivered strong third-quarter performance with record adjusted diluted EPS, driven by IQOS and ZYN growth.

Philip Morris International reported a strong third quarter, surpassing $9 billion in net revenues for the first time and generating a record quarterly adjusted diluted EPS of $1.67, representing currency-neutral growth of 20.3%. The performance was driven by strong IQOS performance, resilient combustible trends, and the exceptional growth of ZYN.

  • Reported net revenues up by 16.4%, excluding currency
  • Combustible tobacco net revenue growth of 4.3%; growth of 6.2% on an organic basis, driven by pricing of 9.0%
  • Market share for HTUs in IQOS markets up by 1.2 points to 9.0%
  • Adjusted in-market sales volume for HTUs, which excludes the net unfavorable impact of estimated distributor and wholesaler inventory movements, up by an estimated 14.4%

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$9.14B

Previous: $8.03B+13.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.67

Previous: $1.53+9.2%
Adj. Operating Margin

40.8%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$1.01B

Previous: -$730M-38.4%
Free Cash Flow

$1.04B

Previous: $1.36B-23.1%
Net Income

$2.05B

Previous: $2.09B-1.6%
Operating Income

$3.37B

Previous: $2.97B+13.5%
Gross Profit

$5.98B

Previous: $5.1B+17.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.02B

Previous: $5.37B-43.8%
Total Assets

$62.9B

Previous: $40.7B+54.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Philip Morris · Revenue · Quarterly

$9.14B

Q3 2023+13.8%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Philip Morris · $5.61B total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Combustible Products
    $5.61B-3.2%

Forward guidance

PMI is raising its full-year growth outlook for adjusted diluted EPS to a range of 10.0% to 10.5%, excluding currency.

Tailwinds

  • Total cigarette and HTU shipment volume growth for PMI of 1.0% to 1.5%
  • Nicotine pouch shipment volume of 390 to 410 million cans, reflecting the continued outstanding growth of ZYN in the U.S.
  • Cigarette shipment volume decline of approximately 1.0% to 2.0%
  • Net revenue growth of around 8.0% on an organic basis
  • Lower supply chain costs (primarily related to Japan)

Headwinds

  • An estimated total international industry volume decline for cigarettes and HTUs, excluding China and the U.S., of 1.5% to 2.0%
  • HTU shipment volume within the lower half of the company's previous 125-to-130-billion-unit range
  • An adjusted operating income margin decline of 50 to 150 basis points on an organic basis, with the decline likely toward the upper (150 basis point) end of the range
  • Wellness and Healthcare segment net revenues of around $300 million (including smoking cessation products), with an adjusted operating loss of around $150 million, primarily due to investments in research and development
  • No share repurchases in 2023

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

40 / 73 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-16.9%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.5%+5.0%+23.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+2.3%-6.6%
Q3 2025-4.0%-0.3%-1.5%
Q2 2025-0.4%+1.7%+0.1%
Q1 2025+2.3%+3.1%+8.6%
Q4 2024+10.9%+13.0%+15.2%
Q3 2024+10.5%+9.2%+10.3%
Q2 2024+3.9%+5.7%+12.0%
Q1 2024+5.3%+1.0%+5.9%
Q4 2023-2.5%-2.5%+1.4%
Q3 2023-0.7%-2.6%-1.4%
Q2 2023-1.3%-1.6%-4.5%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-8.2%
Q4 2022+1.1%+0.4%-2.9%
Q3 2022+0.0%+2.3%+11.3%
Q2 2022+6.8%+7.5%+11.5%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2021+3.7%+5.4%-14.6%
Q3 2021-0.4%-0.6%-6.1%
Q2 2021-1.4%+0.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+2.7%+3.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020+5.0%+6.7%+7.4%
Q3 2020-5.2%-4.4%-0.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+5.4%+7.3%
Q1 2020-4.9%-4.2%-8.3%
Q4 2019+4.2%+6.6%+4.0%
Q3 2019+1.8%+2.6%+7.2%
Q2 2019+9.5%+7.0%+4.8%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.7%+1.6%
Q4 2018+5.9%+6.7%+15.8%
Q3 2018+5.0%+4.7%+2.1%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.7%+3.5%
Q1 2018-16.9%-18.7%-20.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+4.2%+9.5%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.5%-8.8%
Q2 2017-1.7%-3.1%-5.2%
Q1 2017-3.8%-0.7%+0.7%
Q4 2016+5.4%+5.9%+14.9%
Q3 2016+0.5%+0.8%-6.5%
Q2 2016-3.3%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015+3.8%
Q1 2015+9.1%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+2.9%
Q2 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q4 2007+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+0.7%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q2 2009-2.1%
Q2 2008-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%

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