NYSE$PM

Philip Morris International Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Philip Morris' Q4 2019 earnings decreased due to asset impairment and exit costs, but underlying business performance remained strong, driven by IQOS growth and solid pricing.

Philip Morris International's Q4 2019 earnings were impacted by asset impairment and exit costs, primarily related to a plant closure in Germany. However, the company saw revenue growth driven by heated tobacco unit volume and favorable pricing. Adjusted diluted EPS was down 2.4%, but up 4.3% on a like-for-like basis.

  • Reported diluted EPS of $1.04, down by 15.4%; also down by 15.4%, excluding currency.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.22, down by 2.4%; up by 4.3% on a like-for-like basis, excluding currency.
  • Net revenues up by 2.9%; up by 6.3% on a like-for-like basis, excluding currency.
  • Adjusted operating income margin up by 1.8 points to 36.7% on a like-for-like basis, excluding currency.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.71B

Previous: $7.5B+2.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.22

Previous: $1.25-2.4%
HTU Shipments

17.1B

No prior period
Cigarette Shipments

175.1B

No prior period
Adj. Operating Margin

37.1%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$156M

Previous: $334M-53.3%
Free Cash Flow

$3.17B

Previous: $2.09B+51.7%
Net Income

$1.62B

Previous: $1.91B-15.4%
Operating Income

$2.51B

Previous: $2.68B-6.5%
Gross Profit

$4.94B

Previous: $4.72B+4.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$6.86B

Previous: $6.59B+4.1%
Total Assets

$42.9B

Previous: $39.8B+7.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Philip Morris · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.71B

Q4 2019+2.9%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Philip Morris · $7.71B total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Combustible Products
    $6.18B
  • Reduced-Risk Products
    $1.53B

Forward guidance

Philip Morris International anticipates headwinds in Indonesia but expects like-for-like currency-neutral net revenue and adjusted diluted EPS growth consistent with 2019-2021 targets.

Tailwinds

  • Reported diluted earnings per share forecast to be at least $5.50, at prevailing exchange rates, representing a projected increase of at least 19% versus reported diluted earnings per share of $4.61 in 2019.
  • Excluding an unfavorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, of approximately $0.04 per share, this forecast represents a projected increase of at least 8% versus pro forma adjusted diluted earnings per share of $5.13 in 2019
  • Currency-neutral net revenue growth, on a like-for-like basis, of approximately 5%.
  • An increase in full-year currency-neutral, like-for-like adjusted operating income margin of at least 150 basis points versus 2019, partly reflecting cost efficiencies that fully offset incremental net RRP investment.
  • Operating cash flow of approximately $10.5 billion, subject to year-end working capital requirements and currency movements.

Headwinds

  • An estimated total international industry volume decline, excluding China and the U.S., of approximately 3% to 4%, partly reflecting the impact of an above-inflation excise tax increase in Indonesia (following no increase in 2019) and further out-switching to the cigarillo category in Japan, which together account for approximately 100 basis points of the decline
  • A total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume decline for PMI of approximately 2.5% to 3.5% on a like-for-like basis, partly reflecting the same factors as noted above for the total international industry volume decline.
  • An effective tax rate of approximately 23.0%.
  • This forecast excludes the impact of any future acquisitions, unanticipated asset impairment and exit cost charges, future changes in currency exchange rates, further developments related to the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, further developments pertaining to the judgment in the two Québec Class Action lawsuits and the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection granted to RBH, and any unusual events.
  • Factors described in the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section of this release represent continuing risks to these projections.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

40 / 73 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-16.9%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.5%+5.0%+23.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+2.3%-6.6%
Q3 2025-4.0%-0.3%-1.5%
Q2 2025-0.4%+1.7%+0.1%
Q1 2025+2.3%+3.1%+8.6%
Q4 2024+10.9%+13.0%+15.2%
Q3 2024+10.5%+9.2%+10.3%
Q2 2024+3.9%+5.7%+12.0%
Q1 2024+5.3%+1.0%+5.9%
Q4 2023-2.5%-2.5%+1.4%
Q3 2023-0.7%-2.6%-1.4%
Q2 2023-1.3%-1.6%-4.5%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-8.2%
Q4 2022+1.1%+0.4%-2.9%
Q3 2022+0.0%+2.3%+11.3%
Q2 2022+6.8%+7.5%+11.5%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2021+3.7%+5.4%-14.6%
Q3 2021-0.4%-0.6%-6.1%
Q2 2021-1.4%+0.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+2.7%+3.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020+5.0%+6.7%+7.4%
Q3 2020-5.2%-4.4%-0.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+5.4%+7.3%
Q1 2020-4.9%-4.2%-8.3%
Q4 2019+4.2%+6.6%+4.0%
Q3 2019+1.8%+2.6%+7.2%
Q2 2019+9.5%+7.0%+4.8%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.7%+1.6%
Q4 2018+5.9%+6.7%+15.8%
Q3 2018+5.0%+4.7%+2.1%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.7%+3.5%
Q1 2018-16.9%-18.7%-20.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+4.2%+9.5%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.5%-8.8%
Q2 2017-1.7%-3.1%-5.2%
Q1 2017-3.8%-0.7%+0.7%
Q4 2016+5.4%+5.9%+14.9%
Q3 2016+0.5%+0.8%-6.5%
Q2 2016-3.3%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015+3.8%
Q1 2015+9.1%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+2.9%
Q2 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q4 2007+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+0.7%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q2 2009-2.1%
Q2 2008-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%

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