NYSE$PM

Philip Morris International Inc. · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Philip Morris's Q2 performance exceeded initial expectations with strong IQOS momentum and favorable cigarette category trends, leading to an increased full-year outlook.

Philip Morris International Inc. reported a strong underlying performance in the second quarter of 2022, with both top- and bottom-line growth exceeding initial expectations. The company's success was driven by excellent IQOS momentum, including accelerating growth in pro forma total IQOS users and heated tobacco unit in-market sales volume, as well as favorable cigarette category trends. As a result, PMI raised its outlook for the full year and now expects to deliver pro forma adjusted growth in net revenues and diluted EPS.

  • Net revenues from smoke-free products accounted for 29.9% of total net revenues, or 29.1% on a pro forma basis.
  • Market share for heated tobacco units in IQOS markets up by 1.2 points to 7.5% on a pro forma basis.
  • Pro forma total IQOS users at quarter-end estimated at approximately 19.0 million, up by 3.2 million versus June 30, 2021.
  • Announced recommended public offer for Swedish Match AB of SEK 106 in cash per share and suspension of PMI's three-year share repurchase program.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.83B

Previous: $7.59B+3.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.48

Previous: $1.57-5.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$478M

Previous: -$307M-55.7%
Free Cash Flow

$1.76B

Previous: $1.87B-5.9%
Net Income

$2.23B

Previous: $2.17B+2.8%
Operating Income

$3.06B

Previous: $3.13B-2.3%
Gross Profit

$5.18B

Previous: $5.24B-1.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.04B

Previous: $4.92B+2.5%
Total Assets

$41B

Previous: $40.7B+0.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Philip Morris · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.83B

Q2 2022+3.1%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Philip Morris · $7.76B total across 2 segments · Q2 2022

  • Combustible Products
    $5.49B+3.2%
  • Reduced-Risk Products
    $2.27B-0.4%

Forward guidance

PMI is raising its outlook for the full year and now expects to deliver pro forma adjusted growth in net revenues of 6% to 8%, on an organic basis, and diluted EPS of 10% to 12%, excluding currency, underpinned by pro forma heated tobacco unit shipment volume of 90 to 92 billion units.

Tailwinds

  • The full contribution of the company's operations in Russia and Ukraine for the entire year.
  • No asset impairment costs or further other charges related to the company's operations in Russia or Ukraine.
  • No contribution from the operations of Swedish Match in 2022 following the assumed transaction close in the fourth quarter and no further costs associated with the Swedish Match offer.
  • A continued gradual improvement in PMI's duty-free business outside Asia.
  • An improving IQOS device supply situation, with some remaining uncertainty on the timing of full IQOS availability.

Headwinds

  • Continuing uncertainty over the pace of the ongoing recovery from pandemic-related effects on the operating environment, notably in select geographies in PMI's South & Southeast Asia Region.
  • The impact on TEREA heated tobacco unit production capacity build-up due to the decision to cancel manufacturing plans in Russia.
  • A pro forma estimated total international industry volume change, excluding China and the U.S., of approximately flat to +1%.
  • Increased inflation in raw material and energy prices, and additional supply chain costs due to war-related disruptions.
  • Wellness and Healthcare segment net revenues of around $300 million (including smoking cessation products), with an operating loss of around $150 million, primarily due to amortization of intangibles related to acquisitions; investments in research and development; and expenses related to employee retention and recruitment programs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

40 / 73 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-16.9%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.5%+5.0%+23.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+2.3%-6.6%
Q3 2025-4.0%-0.3%-1.5%
Q2 2025-0.4%+1.7%+0.1%
Q1 2025+2.3%+3.1%+8.6%
Q4 2024+10.9%+13.0%+15.2%
Q3 2024+10.5%+9.2%+10.3%
Q2 2024+3.9%+5.7%+12.0%
Q1 2024+5.3%+1.0%+5.9%
Q4 2023-2.5%-2.5%+1.4%
Q3 2023-0.7%-2.6%-1.4%
Q2 2023-1.3%-1.6%-4.5%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-8.2%
Q4 2022+1.1%+0.4%-2.9%
Q3 2022+0.0%+2.3%+11.3%
Q2 2022+6.8%+7.5%+11.5%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2021+3.7%+5.4%-14.6%
Q3 2021-0.4%-0.6%-6.1%
Q2 2021-1.4%+0.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+2.7%+3.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020+5.0%+6.7%+7.4%
Q3 2020-5.2%-4.4%-0.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+5.4%+7.3%
Q1 2020-4.9%-4.2%-8.3%
Q4 2019+4.2%+6.6%+4.0%
Q3 2019+1.8%+2.6%+7.2%
Q2 2019+9.5%+7.0%+4.8%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.7%+1.6%
Q4 2018+5.9%+6.7%+15.8%
Q3 2018+5.0%+4.7%+2.1%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.7%+3.5%
Q1 2018-16.9%-18.7%-20.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+4.2%+9.5%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.5%-8.8%
Q2 2017-1.7%-3.1%-5.2%
Q1 2017-3.8%-0.7%+0.7%
Q4 2016+5.4%+5.9%+14.9%
Q3 2016+0.5%+0.8%-6.5%
Q2 2016-3.3%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015+3.8%
Q1 2015+9.1%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+2.9%
Q2 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q4 2007+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+0.7%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q2 2009-2.1%
Q2 2008-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%

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