NYSE$PM

Philip Morris International Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Delivered a robust business performance despite unprecedented headwinds, supported by stronger-than-anticipated fourth quarter results.

Philip Morris International Inc. reported a decrease in net revenues by 3.5% on an organic basis, but an increase in operating income by 17.8% excluding currency. Adjusted operating income increased by 1.7% on an organic basis. Reported diluted EPS was $1.27, up 22.1%.

  • Reported diluted EPS of $1.27, up by 22.1%; up by 26.9%, excluding currency
  • Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.26, up by 3.3%; up by 7.4% on an organic basis
  • Net revenues down by 3.5%; down by 3.5% on an organic basis
  • Adjusted operating income margin of 38.5%, up by 2.0 points on an organic basis

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.44B

Previous: $7.71B-3.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.26

Previous: $1.22+3.3%
Capital Expenditures

$140M

Previous: $156M-10.3%
Free Cash Flow

$3.02B

Previous: $3.17B-4.6%
Net Income

$1.98B

Previous: $1.62B+22.3%
Operating Income

$2.91B

Previous: $2.51B+15.9%
Gross Profit

$4.87B

Previous: $4.94B-1.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.28B

Previous: $6.86B+6.1%
Total Assets

$44.8B

Previous: $42.9B+4.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Philip Morris · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.44B

Q4 2020-3.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Philip Morris · $7.44B total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Combustible Products
    $5.51B-10.9%
  • Reduced-Risk Products
    $1.94B+26.3%

Forward guidance

For the full year 2021, the company is expecting a significant recovery, with mid-single-digit organic net revenue growth—driven by the growing contribution of IQOS—and further efforts on cost efficiencies driving an acceleration in forecasted adjusted diluted EPS growth to a range of 9% to 11% on the same basis.

Tailwinds

  • A gradual improvement in the general operating environment, with potential volatility around the duration and effects of pandemic-related mobility restrictions across PMI's key markets.
  • A total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume progression for PMI of approximately -2% to +1%.
  • Heated tobacco unit shipment volume of 90 to 100 billion units.
  • Net revenue growth of approximately 4% to 7% on an organic basis.
  • An increase in adjusted operating income margin of at least 150 basis points on an organic basis.

Headwinds

  • Lack of near-term recovery in PMI's duty-free business given the uncertain outlook for global travel, with current dynamics persisting through year end.
  • An estimated total international industry volume progression, excluding China and the U.S., of approximately -3% to flat.
  • An effective tax rate, excluding discrete tax events, of around 22%.
  • No share repurchases
  • First-quarter reported diluted EPS of around $1.40, including a favorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, of around $0.09 per share, notably reflecting:

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

40 / 73 earnings

Positive

+10.9%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-16.9%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+6.5%+5.0%+23.5%
Q4 2025+0.4%+2.3%-6.6%
Q3 2025-4.0%-0.3%-1.5%
Q2 2025-0.4%+1.7%+0.1%
Q1 2025+2.3%+3.1%+8.6%
Q4 2024+10.9%+13.0%+15.2%
Q3 2024+10.5%+9.2%+10.3%
Q2 2024+3.9%+5.7%+12.0%
Q1 2024+5.3%+1.0%+5.9%
Q4 2023-2.5%-2.5%+1.4%
Q3 2023-0.7%-2.6%-1.4%
Q2 2023-1.3%-1.6%-4.5%
Q1 2023-3.7%-2.8%-8.2%
Q4 2022+1.1%+0.4%-2.9%
Q3 2022+0.0%+2.3%+11.3%
Q2 2022+6.8%+7.5%+11.5%
Q1 2022-0.3%-0.3%-1.8%
Q4 2021+3.7%+5.4%-14.6%
Q3 2021-0.4%-0.6%-6.1%
Q2 2021-1.4%+0.5%+3.6%
Q1 2021+2.7%+3.2%+6.3%
Q4 2020+5.0%+6.7%+7.4%
Q3 2020-5.2%-4.4%-0.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+5.4%+7.3%
Q1 2020-4.9%-4.2%-8.3%
Q4 2019+4.2%+6.6%+4.0%
Q3 2019+1.8%+2.6%+7.2%
Q2 2019+9.5%+7.0%+4.8%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.7%+1.6%
Q4 2018+5.9%+6.7%+15.8%
Q3 2018+5.0%+4.7%+2.1%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.7%+3.5%
Q1 2018-16.9%-18.7%-20.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+4.2%+9.5%
Q3 2017-2.7%-3.5%-8.8%
Q2 2017-1.7%-3.1%-5.2%
Q1 2017-3.8%-0.7%+0.7%
Q4 2016+5.4%+5.9%+14.9%
Q3 2016+0.5%+0.8%-6.5%
Q2 2016-3.3%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2016-2.5%
Q4 2015-0.3%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015+3.8%
Q1 2015+9.1%
Q4 2014-1.0%
Q3 2014+2.9%
Q2 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+1.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013-2.2%
Q4 2012+3.1%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012+0.1%
Q4 2011+1.1%
Q3 2011+0.5%
Q2 2011-1.7%
Q1 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010+0.8%
Q4 2007+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.0%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+0.7%
Q1 2010-0.0%
Q4 2009-1.4%
Q3 2008+2.5%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q2 2009-2.1%
Q2 2008-2.1%
Q4 2008-2.1%

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