NYSE$MTH

Meritage Homes Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Meritage Homes finished 2022 with record fourth quarter results, including a 29% increase in home closings and a 32% increase in home closing revenue.

Meritage Homes reported a strong fourth quarter in 2022, with a 29% increase in home closings and a 32% increase in home closing revenue. Diluted EPS was $7.09, a 13% year-over-year increase. However, the company noted that ongoing economic uncertainty continued to impact buyer psychology and undermine housing demand, leading to a 46% decrease in fourth quarter orders.

  • Home closings increased by 29% year-over-year, driving $2.0 billion in home closing revenue.
  • Diluted EPS increased by 13% year-over-year to $7.09.
  • Sales orders decreased by 46% due to elevated cancellations, with a cancellation rate of 39%.
  • The company ended the year with over $860 million in cash and increased community count by 5% year-over-year to 271 active communities.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.98B

Previous: $1.5B+32.4%
EPS (adj)

$3.55

Previous: $3.13+13.4%
Ending backlog (units)

3.3K

Previous: 5.7K-41.3%
Ending backlog value

$1.52B

Previous: $2.52B-39.4%
Average sales price - backlog

$458K

Previous: $443.00+103286.0%
Capital Expenditures

$7.43M

Previous: $7.75M-4.1%
Free Cash Flow

$568M

Previous: $88.9M+538.8%
Net Income

$262M

Previous: $237M+10.5%
Operating Income

$342M

Previous: $311M+9.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$862M

Previous: $618M+39.3%
Total Assets

$5.77B

Previous: $4.81B+20.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.44M

Previous: $5.63M-3.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Meritage Homes · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.98B

Q4 2022+32.4%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Meritage Homes · $23.1M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Land closing revenue
    $17.4M
  • Financial services revenue
    $5.73M

Forward guidance

Meritage Homes did not provide specific financial guidance for the next quarter or full year 2023 in the earnings report. However, they expressed confidence in their ability to capture market share by focusing on affordable, move-in ready products.

Tailwinds

  • Favorable demographics and low supply of new and resale housing inventory should drive long-term demand.
  • Company believes they have the right level of completed and near-completed homes to sell in nearly all of their stores.
  • Company is working to find the market clearing price to get back to their target absorption pace of 3-4 net sales per month.
  • Strategy is centered on affordable, move-in ready product, which they believe will allow them to continue to capture market share.
  • Company remains focused on balance sheet discipline and ended the year with over $860 million in cash.

Headwinds

  • Ongoing economic uncertainty continued to impact buyer psychology and undermine housing demand.
  • Sales orders of 1,808 homes were 46% lower than prior year primarily due to elevated cancellations.
  • Cancellation rate was 39% this quarter.
  • Average absorption pace was down from 4.5 per month in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2.2 per month.
  • Macroeconomic factors overshadowed favorable demographics and low supply of new and resale housing inventory.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.3%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

33 / 66 earnings

Positive

+20.9%

Q2 2019

Best reaction

-11.8%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.9%+1.0%-6.6%
Q4 2025+1.1%+5.2%+9.0%
Q3 2025-5.9%-7.4%+2.9%
Q2 2025-5.4%-7.1%+7.1%
Q1 2025+1.0%-1.8%-5.8%
Q4 2024+2.8%-1.8%-8.1%
Q3 2024-3.8%-0.6%+2.6%
Q2 2024+1.1%+3.7%+13.9%
Q1 2024+4.3%+7.1%+10.4%
Q4 2023-8.8%-9.9%-5.2%
Q3 2023+9.0%+19.1%+26.2%
Q2 2023+7.0%+6.1%-5.4%
Q1 2023-2.2%+0.7%-6.4%
Q4 2022+8.3%+2.5%+2.1%
Q3 2022+1.6%+4.3%+17.8%
Q2 2022+2.6%+2.4%-6.5%
Q1 2022+4.2%+3.8%+5.9%
Q4 2021-5.6%-2.4%-6.5%
Q3 2021+4.1%+2.2%+9.0%
Q2 2021+10.6%+13.0%+16.1%
Q1 2021+12.6%+13.6%+13.3%
Q4 2020-8.5%-12.0%-10.3%
Q3 2020-11.1%-12.7%-17.1%
Q2 2020+5.3%+15.3%+23.0%
Q1 2020+19.9%+16.3%+59.5%
Q4 2019+3.4%+1.9%-10.5%
Q3 2019-0.6%+0.4%-10.0%
Q2 2019+20.9%+17.8%+20.3%
Q1 2019+5.4%+3.6%+3.9%
Q4 2018+11.5%+10.0%+7.5%
Q3 2018+7.8%+5.4%+15.5%
Q2 2018-0.1%-0.9%+0.8%
Q1 2018+7.0%+4.0%+7.2%
Q4 2017+3.2%-0.3%-8.9%
Q3 2017-0.1%+1.1%+5.9%
Q2 2017+7.9%+7.6%-0.1%
Q1 2017-1.8%-3.8%+1.8%
Q4 2016-6.4%-6.3%-1.2%
Q3 2016-6.9%-8.7%+11.0%
Q2 2016-10.2%-12.9%-12.0%
Q1 2016-11.8%
Q4 2015+17.9%
Q3 2015-10.2%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015-3.9%
Q4 2014+9.3%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014-7.6%
Q1 2014-7.2%
Q4 2013-1.2%
Q3 2013+6.7%
Q2 2013-7.0%
Q1 2013+9.1%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-8.7%
Q2 2012+14.5%
Q1 2011-2.2%
Q1 2012+2.8%
Q4 2009-1.7%
Q4 2011-1.7%
Q3 2010+0.1%
Q3 2011+0.1%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q2 2010-1.0%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q1 2010-4.7%

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