NYSE$MTH

Meritage Homes Corp · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported an 88% increase in diluted EPS, 470 bps increase in home closing gross margin and 25% increase in closings over prior year.

Meritage Homes reported strong first-quarter results with significant growth in diluted EPS, home closing gross margin, and closings. The company's strategy centered on affordable entry-level and first move-up homes drove the highest first quarter of orders and closings in the company's history.

  • Total orders increased by 11% year-over-year, driven by a 35% increase in absorption pace.
  • Home closing revenue increased by 21% year-over-year to $1.1 billion.
  • Home closing gross margin improved by 470 bps to 24.7%.
  • Net earnings increased by 85% year-over-year to $131.8 million, with diluted EPS up 88% to $3.44.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.08B

Previous: $901M+20.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.72

Previous: $0.92+87.0%
Ending backlog (units)

5.2K

Previous: 3.6K+46.9%
Ending backlog value

$2.08B

Previous: $1.39B+50.0%
Average sales price - backlog

$397.00

Previous: $389.00+2.1%
Capital Expenditures

$4.99M

Previous: $5.33M-6.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$18.9M

Previous: $38.6M-149.1%
Net Income

$132M

Previous: $71.2M+85.3%
Operating Income

$166M

Previous: $86.8M+91.1%
Gross Profit

$267M

Previous: $179M+49.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$716M

Previous: $797M-10.1%
Total Assets

$4.04B

Previous: $3.91B+3.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.37M

Previous: $6.44M-16.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Meritage Homes · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.08B

Q1 2021+20.3%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Meritage Homes · $23.1M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Land closing revenue
    $17.4M
  • Financial services revenue
    $5.73M

Forward guidance

Based on robust selling conditions and confidence in our ability to deliver our backlog, we are projecting 11,700-12,700 annual home closings and approximately $4.55-4.85 billion in total home closing revenue for 2021. In addition, we anticipate home closing gross margin of approximately 25.0% and an effective tax rate of about 23.0%, and expect to realize diluted EPS in the range of $13.75-14.75.

Tailwinds

  • Projecting 11,700-12,700 annual home closings.
  • Anticipating approximately $4.55-4.85 billion in total home closing revenue for 2021.
  • Expecting home closing gross margin of approximately 25.0%.
  • Expecting an effective tax rate of about 23.0%.
  • Projecting diluted EPS in the range of $13.75-14.75.

Headwinds

  • Guidance is subject to risks and uncertainties in the housing market.
  • Potential changes in interest rates and mortgage availability could impact results.
  • Inflation in material costs could affect profitability.
  • The ability of potential buyers to sell their existing homes may influence closings.
  • COVID-19 related disruptions could impact business operations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.3%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

33 / 66 earnings

Positive

+20.9%

Q2 2019

Best reaction

-11.8%

Q1 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.9%+1.0%-6.6%
Q4 2025+1.1%+5.2%+9.0%
Q3 2025-5.9%-7.4%+2.9%
Q2 2025-5.4%-7.1%+7.1%
Q1 2025+1.0%-1.8%-5.8%
Q4 2024+2.8%-1.8%-8.1%
Q3 2024-3.8%-0.6%+2.6%
Q2 2024+1.1%+3.7%+13.9%
Q1 2024+4.3%+7.1%+10.4%
Q4 2023-8.8%-9.9%-5.2%
Q3 2023+9.0%+19.1%+26.2%
Q2 2023+7.0%+6.1%-5.4%
Q1 2023-2.2%+0.7%-6.4%
Q4 2022+8.3%+2.5%+2.1%
Q3 2022+1.6%+4.3%+17.8%
Q2 2022+2.6%+2.4%-6.5%
Q1 2022+4.2%+3.8%+5.9%
Q4 2021-5.6%-2.4%-6.5%
Q3 2021+4.1%+2.2%+9.0%
Q2 2021+10.6%+13.0%+16.1%
Q1 2021+12.6%+13.6%+13.3%
Q4 2020-8.5%-12.0%-10.3%
Q3 2020-11.1%-12.7%-17.1%
Q2 2020+5.3%+15.3%+23.0%
Q1 2020+19.9%+16.3%+59.5%
Q4 2019+3.4%+1.9%-10.5%
Q3 2019-0.6%+0.4%-10.0%
Q2 2019+20.9%+17.8%+20.3%
Q1 2019+5.4%+3.6%+3.9%
Q4 2018+11.5%+10.0%+7.5%
Q3 2018+7.8%+5.4%+15.5%
Q2 2018-0.1%-0.9%+0.8%
Q1 2018+7.0%+4.0%+7.2%
Q4 2017+3.2%-0.3%-8.9%
Q3 2017-0.1%+1.1%+5.9%
Q2 2017+7.9%+7.6%-0.1%
Q1 2017-1.8%-3.8%+1.8%
Q4 2016-6.4%-6.3%-1.2%
Q3 2016-6.9%-8.7%+11.0%
Q2 2016-10.2%-12.9%-12.0%
Q1 2016-11.8%
Q4 2015+17.9%
Q3 2015-10.2%
Q2 2015-2.5%
Q1 2015-3.9%
Q4 2014+9.3%
Q3 2014-5.3%
Q2 2014-7.6%
Q1 2014-7.2%
Q4 2013-1.2%
Q3 2013+6.7%
Q2 2013-7.0%
Q1 2013+9.1%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-8.7%
Q2 2012+14.5%
Q1 2011-2.2%
Q1 2012+2.8%
Q4 2009-1.7%
Q4 2011-1.7%
Q3 2010+0.1%
Q3 2011+0.1%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q2 2010-1.0%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q1 2010-4.7%

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