NYSE$MOH

Molina Healthcare Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Molina Healthcare, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results, introducing full year 2025 revenue and earnings guidance.

Molina Healthcare reported strong fourth quarter 2024 results with GAAP earnings per diluted share of $4.44 and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $5.05. For the full year 2024, premium revenue increased by 19% year over year, and both GAAP and adjusted net income per diluted share saw increases of 9% and 8% respectively.

  • Fourth quarter 2024 GAAP earnings per diluted share was $4.44, with adjusted earnings per diluted share at $5.05.
  • Full year 2024 premium revenue reached approximately $38.6 billion, marking a 19% increase year over year.
  • The company served approximately 5.5 million members as of December 31, 2024.
  • Molina Healthcare issued full year 2025 guidance, expecting premium revenue of approximately $42 billion and adjusted earnings of at least $24.50 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$10.5K

Previous: $9.05B-100.0%
EPS (adj)

$5.05

Previous: $4.38+15.3%
Medical Care Ratio

90.2%

Previous: 89.1%+1.2%
GAAP G&A Ratio

6.3%

Previous: 7.1%-11.3%
Adjusted G&A Ratio

6.3%

Previous: 7.0%-10.0%
After-tax Margin

2.4%

Previous: 2.4%+0.0%
Adjusted After-tax Margin

2.7%

Previous: 2.8%-3.6%
Days in Claims Payable

48

Previous: 50-4.0%
Medicaid MCR

90.2%

No prior period
Medicare MCR

93.8%

No prior period
Marketplace MCR

83.3%

No prior period
Total Membership

5.5M

Previous: 5.0M+10.8%
Medicaid Membership

4.9M

Previous: 4.5M+7.7%
Medicare Membership

242.0K

Previous: 172.0K+40.7%
Marketplace Membership

403.0K

Previous: 281.0K+43.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$11M

Previous: $5M-320.0%
Net Income

$251.00

Previous: $216M-100.0%
Operating Income

$380.00

Previous: $316M-100.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Molina · Revenue · Quarterly

$10.5K

Q4 2024-100%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molina · $8.04B total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Medicaid
    $6.49B+2.9%
  • Medicare
    $1.04B+9.1%
  • Marketplace
    $513M-5.2%

Forward guidance

Molina Healthcare expects full year 2025 premium revenue to be approximately $42 billion, an increase of 9% from 2024. GAAP earnings per share are projected to be at least $22.50, and adjusted earnings per share at least $24.50, representing 8% growth over 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Expected premium revenue of approximately $42 billion for full year 2025, an increase of 9% from 2024.
  • Anticipated GAAP EPS of at least $22.50 for full year 2025.
  • Projected adjusted EPS of at least $24.50 for full year 2025, an 8% growth over 2024.
  • New store embedded earnings are now at $7.75 per diluted share, reflecting recent Medicaid and Medicare Duals contract wins.
  • Medicaid and Medicare Duals contract wins scheduled to commence in 2026 are expected to yield approximately 13% growth over 2024.

Headwinds

  • Full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance includes approximately $1.00 per diluted share of implementation costs for recent Medicaid and Medicare Duals contract wins.
  • The Medicaid MCR for full year 2024 was 90.3%, with approximately 30 basis points due to 'new store' plans and 20 basis points due to a retroactive premium rate reduction.
  • Excluding new stores and retroactive premium adjustment, the Medicaid MCR was approximately 89.8%, higher than long-term expectations due to redetermination-related acuity shifts and higher utilization in H2 2024.
  • The Medicare MCR for full year 2024 was 89.1%, primarily reflecting higher-than-expected utilization.
  • Operating cash flow for 2024 decreased to $644 million from $1,662 million in 2023, primarily due to timing differences in government receivables and payables.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

27 / 66 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-25.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+21.2%+20.3%
Q4 2025-25.5%-30.6%-18.3%
Q3 2025-17.3%-16.5%-27.5%
Q2 2025+4.9%+8.8%+13.3%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.7%-8.1%
Q4 2024-10.1%-13.9%+3.3%
Q3 2024+14.0%+11.0%+2.4%
Q2 2024+13.0%+16.1%+20.5%
Q1 2024-3.0%-5.3%-8.6%
Q4 2023+6.8%+9.9%+9.9%
Q3 2023-0.7%-1.7%+10.1%
Q2 2023-2.6%-3.5%+1.0%
Q1 2023+6.3%+9.4%-2.2%
Q4 2022-0.5%-1.1%-13.7%
Q3 2022-3.9%-2.0%-10.7%
Q2 2022+2.7%+5.3%+9.7%
Q1 2022-1.9%-4.7%-5.1%
Q4 2021-0.5%-0.0%+1.8%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.5%-2.4%
Q2 2021-2.0%+5.4%+3.2%
Q1 2021+1.2%+2.2%+0.2%
Q4 2020+5.0%+5.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-8.2%-2.5%+1.5%
Q2 2020-1.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2020+5.2%+9.9%+12.8%
Q4 2019+10.5%+13.3%+3.1%
Q3 2019-0.3%-4.4%+11.0%
Q2 2019-4.4%-7.0%-6.5%
Q1 2019+0.9%-0.2%+2.0%
Q4 2018-5.5%-1.1%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.9%+11.1%
Q2 2018+18.7%+23.1%+34.7%
Q1 2018-2.9%-1.2%+3.4%
Q4 2017-3.8%-8.1%-2.8%
Q3 2017+16.1%+13.7%+14.6%
Q2 2017-6.8%-12.4%-4.0%
Q1 2017+26.3%+30.8%+31.3%
Q4 2016-17.2%+1.6%-6.0%
Q3 2016-5.9%-7.0%-9.3%
Q2 2016+10.1%+8.1%+4.2%
Q1 2016-20.6%
Q4 2015-1.5%
Q3 2015-8.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015+11.6%
Q4 2014+8.8%
Q3 2014+4.6%
Q2 2014-6.5%
Q1 2014+4.5%
Q4 2013-6.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+10.0%
Q3 2012+14.3%
Q2 2012-1.7%
Q1 2011-2.5%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.2%
Q3 2011+1.2%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q4 2010-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%

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