NYSE$MOH

Molina Healthcare Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong financial results driven by membership growth and disciplined cost management.

Molina Healthcare reported strong third-quarter results, exceeding previous guidance for revenue and earnings. The company's performance reflects the successful execution of its growth strategy and effective cost management. Increased full-year 2022 revenue and earnings guidance.

  • Served approximately 5.2 million members, a 7% increase compared to the prior year.
  • Premium revenue increased by 12% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
  • GAAP earnings per diluted share increased by 61% and adjusted earnings per diluted share increased by 54% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
  • Increased full year 2022 premium revenue and adjusted earnings guidance.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.93B

Previous: $7.04B+12.6%
EPS (adj)

$4.36

Previous: $2.83+54.1%
Total Membership

5.2M

Previous: 4.8M+7.5%
Medicaid Membership

4.7M

Previous: 4.0M+17.2%
Medicare Membership

155.0K

Previous: 138.0K+12.3%
Marketplace Membership

353.0K

Previous: 719.0K-50.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$81M

Previous: -$56M-44.6%
Free Cash Flow

$149M

Previous: $87M+71.3%
Net Income

$230M

Previous: $143M+60.8%
Operating Income

$335M

Previous: $221M+51.6%
Gross Profit

$1.18B

Previous: $991M+19.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.24B

Previous: $4.36B-2.6%
Total Assets

$12.8B

Previous: $11B+16.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$23M

Previous: $14M+64.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Molina · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.93B

Q3 2022+12.6%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molina · $7.64B total across 3 segments · Q3 2022

  • Medicaid
    $6.13B+19.0%
  • Medicare
    $947M+8.2%
  • Marketplace
    $564M-27.6%

Forward guidance

Molina Healthcare increased its full-year 2022 guidance for premium revenue to approximately $30.5 billion and adjusted earnings to at least $17.75 per diluted share.

Tailwinds

  • Third quarter outperformance
  • Addition of the AgeWell acquisition
  • Expected impact of the extension of the Public Health Emergency
  • Expected margin on additional revenue resulting from the extension of the Public Health Emergency
  • Higher expected net investment income

Headwinds

  • Higher expected G&A driven by fourth quarter marketing
  • Open enrollment activities
  • New contract wins
  • Net effect of COVID decreased the third quarter of 2022 GAAP and adjusted EPS by $0.59 per diluted share
  • Operating cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2022, was $985 million, which was lower compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2021

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

27 / 66 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-25.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+21.2%+20.3%
Q4 2025-25.5%-30.6%-18.3%
Q3 2025-17.3%-16.5%-27.5%
Q2 2025+4.9%+8.8%+13.3%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.7%-8.1%
Q4 2024-10.1%-13.9%+3.3%
Q3 2024+14.0%+11.0%+2.4%
Q2 2024+13.0%+16.1%+20.5%
Q1 2024-3.0%-5.3%-8.6%
Q4 2023+6.8%+9.9%+9.9%
Q3 2023-0.7%-1.7%+10.1%
Q2 2023-2.6%-3.5%+1.0%
Q1 2023+6.3%+9.4%-2.2%
Q4 2022-0.5%-1.1%-13.7%
Q3 2022-3.9%-2.0%-10.7%
Q2 2022+2.7%+5.3%+9.7%
Q1 2022-1.9%-4.7%-5.1%
Q4 2021-0.5%-0.0%+1.8%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.5%-2.4%
Q2 2021-2.0%+5.4%+3.2%
Q1 2021+1.2%+2.2%+0.2%
Q4 2020+5.0%+5.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-8.2%-2.5%+1.5%
Q2 2020-1.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2020+5.2%+9.9%+12.8%
Q4 2019+10.5%+13.3%+3.1%
Q3 2019-0.3%-4.4%+11.0%
Q2 2019-4.4%-7.0%-6.5%
Q1 2019+0.9%-0.2%+2.0%
Q4 2018-5.5%-1.1%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.9%+11.1%
Q2 2018+18.7%+23.1%+34.7%
Q1 2018-2.9%-1.2%+3.4%
Q4 2017-3.8%-8.1%-2.8%
Q3 2017+16.1%+13.7%+14.6%
Q2 2017-6.8%-12.4%-4.0%
Q1 2017+26.3%+30.8%+31.3%
Q4 2016-17.2%+1.6%-6.0%
Q3 2016-5.9%-7.0%-9.3%
Q2 2016+10.1%+8.1%+4.2%
Q1 2016-20.6%
Q4 2015-1.5%
Q3 2015-8.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015+11.6%
Q4 2014+8.8%
Q3 2014+4.6%
Q2 2014-6.5%
Q1 2014+4.5%
Q4 2013-6.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+10.0%
Q3 2012+14.3%
Q2 2012-1.7%
Q1 2011-2.5%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.2%
Q3 2011+1.2%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q4 2010-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%

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