NYSE$MOH
Molina Healthcare Inc · Q4 2020 earnings
Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Reported net income for the fourth quarter and year-end 2020 and introduced full year 2021 earnings guidance.
Molina Healthcare reported a net income of $34 million for Q4 2020, or $0.56 per diluted share. The company issued its full year 2021 earnings guidance, with premium revenue growth expected to be over 25% and adjusted EPS expected to be in the range of $12.50 - $13.00.
- Total revenue increased 15% to $19.4 billion for the full year 2020 compared to 2019.
- For the full year 2020, net income was $673 million, or $11.23 per diluted share, compared to net income of $737 million, or $11.47 per diluted share, for the full year 2019.
- The Company issued its full year 2021 earnings guidance, with premium revenue growth expected to be over 25% and adjusted EPS expected to be in the range of $12.50 - $13.00.
- Included in the Company’s guidance is the effect of the overhang from COVID and Medicare risk scores expected to soon abate.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Molina · Revenue · Quarterly
$5.24B
Revenue by segment
Molina · $8.04B total across 3 segments · Q2 2023
- Medicaid$6.49B+2.9%80.6%
- Medicare$1.04B+9.1%13.0%
- Marketplace$513M-5.2%6.4%
Forward guidance
The Company issued its full year 2021 earnings guidance, with premium revenue growth expected to be over 25% and adjusted EPS expected to be in the range of $12.50 - $13.00.
Tailwinds
- Continued strong performance in Medicaid and Medicare;
- Margin recovery and growth in the Marketplace business;
- Accretion from the Magellan Complete Care businesses and the Kentucky and Passport installation; and,
- The elimination of the Health Insurer Fee.
- Included in the Company’s guidance is the effect of the overhang from COVID and Medicare risk scores expected to soon abate.
Headwinds
- A negative net effect of COVID due to a continuation of many of the risk-sharing corridors that existed in 2020 and the direct costs of COVID-related patient care;
- Medicare risk scores;
- Net pharmacy benefit carve-outs.
- The Affinity acquisition, as the transaction has not yet closed; and,
- The impact of potential Public Health Emergency extensions beyond mid-April 2021.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020
+0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+1.6%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.9%
Avg return
30 days after
41%
27 / 66 earnings
Positive
+26.3%
Q1 2017
Best reaction
-25.5%
Q4 2025
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +2.6% | +21.2% | +20.3% | |
| Q4 2025 | -25.5% | -30.6% | -18.3% | |
| Q3 2025 | -17.3% | -16.5% | -27.5% | |
| Q2 2025 | +4.9% | +8.8% | +13.3% | |
| Q1 2025 | -5.5% | -3.7% | -8.1% | |
| Q4 2024 | -10.1% | -13.9% | +3.3% | |
| Q3 2024 | +14.0% | +11.0% | +2.4% | |
| Q2 2024 | +13.0% | +16.1% | +20.5% | |
| Q1 2024 | -3.0% | -5.3% | -8.6% | |
| Q4 2023 | +6.8% | +9.9% | +9.9% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.7% | -1.7% | +10.1% | |
| Q2 2023 | -2.6% | -3.5% | +1.0% | |
| Q1 2023 | +6.3% | +9.4% | -2.2% | |
| Q4 2022 | -0.5% | -1.1% | -13.7% | |
| Q3 2022 | -3.9% | -2.0% | -10.7% | |
| Q2 2022 | +2.7% | +5.3% | +9.7% | |
| Q1 2022 | -1.9% | -4.7% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2021 | -0.5% | -0.0% | +1.8% | |
| Q3 2021 | -0.8% | -0.5% | -2.4% | |
| Q2 2021 | -2.0% | +5.4% | +3.2% | |
| Q1 2021 | +1.2% | +2.2% | +0.2% | |
| Q4 2020 | +5.0% | +5.0% | +12.9% | |
| Q3 2020 | -8.2% | -2.5% | +1.5% | |
| Q2 2020 | -1.6% | -0.5% | -2.0% | |
| Q1 2020 | +5.2% | +9.9% | +12.8% | |
| Q4 2019 | +10.5% | +13.3% | +3.1% | |
| Q3 2019 | -0.3% | -4.4% | +11.0% | |
| Q2 2019 | -4.4% | -7.0% | -6.5% | |
| Q1 2019 | +0.9% | -0.2% | +2.0% | |
| Q4 2018 | -5.5% | -1.1% | +3.6% | |
| Q3 2018 | -0.8% | -0.9% | +11.1% | |
| Q2 2018 | +18.7% | +23.1% | +34.7% | |
| Q1 2018 | -2.9% | -1.2% | +3.4% | |
| Q4 2017 | -3.8% | -8.1% | -2.8% | |
| Q3 2017 | +16.1% | +13.7% | +14.6% | |
| Q2 2017 | -6.8% | -12.4% | -4.0% | |
| Q1 2017 | +26.3% | +30.8% | +31.3% | |
| Q4 2016 | -17.2% | +1.6% | -6.0% | |
| Q3 2016 | -5.9% | -7.0% | -9.3% | |
| Q2 2016 | +10.1% | +8.1% | +4.2% | |
| Q1 2016 | -20.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -1.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -8.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +9.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +11.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +8.8% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +4.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -6.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +4.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | -6.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -7.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +10.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +14.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | -1.7% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -2.7% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -2.7% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | -2.7% | — | — |
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