NYSE$MOH

Molina Healthcare Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter and year-end financial results, introducing full year 2024 revenue and earnings guidance.

Molina Healthcare reported GAAP earnings per diluted share of $3.70 and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $4.38 for Q4 2023. The company's full year 2023 GAAP earnings per diluted share was $18.77 and adjusted earnings per diluted share was $20.88.

  • The Company served approximately 5.0 million members as of December 31, 2023.
  • Premium revenue was approximately $32.5 billion for the full year 2023, an increase of 5% year over year.
  • GAAP net income was $18.77 per diluted share for the full year 2023, an increase of 39% year over year.
  • The Company issued its full year 2024 earnings guidance with expected premium revenue of approximately $38 billion and adjusted earnings of at least $23.50 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$9.05B

Previous: $8.22B+10.0%
EPS (adj)

$4.38

Previous: $4.10+6.8%
Medical Care Ratio

89.1%

No prior period
GAAP G&A Ratio

7.1%

No prior period
Adjusted G&A Ratio

7.0%

No prior period
After-tax Margin

2.4%

No prior period
Adjusted After-tax Margin

2.8%

No prior period
Days in Claims Payable

50

No prior period
Total Membership

5.0M

Previous: 5.3M-5.0%
Medicaid Membership

4.5M

Previous: 4.8M-4.5%
Medicare Membership

172.0K

Previous: 156.0K+10.3%
Marketplace Membership

281.0K

Previous: 348.0K-19.3%
Capital Expenditures

$5M

Previous: $10M-50.0%
Net Income

$216M

Previous: $56M+285.7%
Operating Income

$316M

Previous: $105M+201.0%
Gross Profit

$1.04B

Previous: $1B+3.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$27M

Previous: $23M+17.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Molina · Revenue · Quarterly

$9.05B

Q4 2023+10%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molina · $8.04B total across 3 segments · Q2 2023

  • Medicaid
    $6.49B+2.9%
  • Medicare
    $1.04B+9.1%
  • Marketplace
    $513M-5.2%

Forward guidance

Premium revenue for the full year is expected to be approximately $38 billion, an increase of approximately 17% from the full year 2023. The Company expects its full year adjusted earnings per share in 2024 to be at least $23.50 per share, representing approximately 13% growth over the full year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Premium Revenue $38.0B
  • Total Revenue $39.6B
  • GAAP Net Income $1,278M
  • Adjusted Net Income $1,366M
  • Adjusted EPS – Diluted >$23.50

Headwinds

  • GAAP EPS – Diluted >$22.00
  • Diluted weighted average shares 58.1M
  • Year End Total Membership 5.7M
  • Medicaid 5.1M
  • Marketplace 370K

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

27 / 66 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-25.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+21.2%+20.3%
Q4 2025-25.5%-30.6%-18.3%
Q3 2025-17.3%-16.5%-27.5%
Q2 2025+4.9%+8.8%+13.3%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.7%-8.1%
Q4 2024-10.1%-13.9%+3.3%
Q3 2024+14.0%+11.0%+2.4%
Q2 2024+13.0%+16.1%+20.5%
Q1 2024-3.0%-5.3%-8.6%
Q4 2023+6.8%+9.9%+9.9%
Q3 2023-0.7%-1.7%+10.1%
Q2 2023-2.6%-3.5%+1.0%
Q1 2023+6.3%+9.4%-2.2%
Q4 2022-0.5%-1.1%-13.7%
Q3 2022-3.9%-2.0%-10.7%
Q2 2022+2.7%+5.3%+9.7%
Q1 2022-1.9%-4.7%-5.1%
Q4 2021-0.5%-0.0%+1.8%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.5%-2.4%
Q2 2021-2.0%+5.4%+3.2%
Q1 2021+1.2%+2.2%+0.2%
Q4 2020+5.0%+5.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-8.2%-2.5%+1.5%
Q2 2020-1.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2020+5.2%+9.9%+12.8%
Q4 2019+10.5%+13.3%+3.1%
Q3 2019-0.3%-4.4%+11.0%
Q2 2019-4.4%-7.0%-6.5%
Q1 2019+0.9%-0.2%+2.0%
Q4 2018-5.5%-1.1%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.9%+11.1%
Q2 2018+18.7%+23.1%+34.7%
Q1 2018-2.9%-1.2%+3.4%
Q4 2017-3.8%-8.1%-2.8%
Q3 2017+16.1%+13.7%+14.6%
Q2 2017-6.8%-12.4%-4.0%
Q1 2017+26.3%+30.8%+31.3%
Q4 2016-17.2%+1.6%-6.0%
Q3 2016-5.9%-7.0%-9.3%
Q2 2016+10.1%+8.1%+4.2%
Q1 2016-20.6%
Q4 2015-1.5%
Q3 2015-8.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015+11.6%
Q4 2014+8.8%
Q3 2014+4.6%
Q2 2014-6.5%
Q1 2014+4.5%
Q4 2013-6.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+10.0%
Q3 2012+14.3%
Q2 2012-1.7%
Q1 2011-2.5%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.2%
Q3 2011+1.2%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q4 2010-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%

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