NYSE$MOH

Molina Healthcare Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Molina Healthcare's financial results for Q1 2020 were reported, with net income at $178 million and revenue increasing by 8.9% compared to the previous year.

Molina Healthcare reported a decrease in net income for Q1 2020, with $178 million compared to $198 million in Q1 2019. However, premium revenue increased by 8.9%. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2020 earnings guidance.

  • Premium revenue increased by 8.9% compared to Q1 2019, reaching $4.3 billion.
  • The Medical Care Ratio (MCR) increased to 86.3% compared to 85.3% in Q1 2019.
  • The General and Administrative (G&A) expense ratio decreased to 7.0% compared to 7.3% in Q1 2019.
  • Molina Healthcare reaffirmed its full-year 2020 earnings guidance range of $11.20 to $11.70 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.55B

Previous: $4.12B+10.4%
EPS (adj)

$3.02

Previous: $3.04-0.7%
Total Membership

3.4M

No prior period
Medicaid Membership

3.0M

No prior period
Medicare Membership

105.0K

No prior period
Marketplace Membership

329.0K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$21M

Previous: -$6M-250.0%
Free Cash Flow

$157M

Previous: $192M-18.2%
Net Income

$178M

Previous: $198M-10.1%
Operating Income

$274M

Previous: $280M-2.1%
Gross Profit

$833M

Previous: $4.12B-79.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.37B

Previous: $3.22B-26.6%
Total Assets

$7.13B

Previous: $7.58B-5.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $9M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Molina · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.55B

Q1 2020+10.4%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molina · $4.3B total across 3 segments · Q1 2020

  • Medicaid
    $3.29B+9.4%
  • Medicare
    $634M+15.1%
  • Marketplace
    $384M-3.3%

Forward guidance

The Company reaffirmed its full year 2020 earnings guidance range of $11.20 to $11.70 per diluted share despite the inclusion of the impact of lower yields on investment income and incremental general and administrative expenses related to COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • Reaffirmed full year 2020 earnings guidance range of $11.20 to $11.70 per diluted share.
  • Total Revenue ~$18.3B
  • MCR 86.2% - 86.4%
  • G&A ~7.2%
  • After-Tax Margin 3.7% - 3.8%

Headwinds

  • Impact of lower yields on investment income.
  • Incremental general and administrative expenses related to COVID-19.
  • Membership increases related to the impact of COVID-19 on unemployment are not included.
  • Impact of COVID-19 on net medical cost is excluded.
  • Previously announced acquisitions that have not yet closed are not included.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

27 / 66 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-25.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+21.2%+20.3%
Q4 2025-25.5%-30.6%-18.3%
Q3 2025-17.3%-16.5%-27.5%
Q2 2025+4.9%+8.8%+13.3%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.7%-8.1%
Q4 2024-10.1%-13.9%+3.3%
Q3 2024+14.0%+11.0%+2.4%
Q2 2024+13.0%+16.1%+20.5%
Q1 2024-3.0%-5.3%-8.6%
Q4 2023+6.8%+9.9%+9.9%
Q3 2023-0.7%-1.7%+10.1%
Q2 2023-2.6%-3.5%+1.0%
Q1 2023+6.3%+9.4%-2.2%
Q4 2022-0.5%-1.1%-13.7%
Q3 2022-3.9%-2.0%-10.7%
Q2 2022+2.7%+5.3%+9.7%
Q1 2022-1.9%-4.7%-5.1%
Q4 2021-0.5%-0.0%+1.8%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.5%-2.4%
Q2 2021-2.0%+5.4%+3.2%
Q1 2021+1.2%+2.2%+0.2%
Q4 2020+5.0%+5.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-8.2%-2.5%+1.5%
Q2 2020-1.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2020+5.2%+9.9%+12.8%
Q4 2019+10.5%+13.3%+3.1%
Q3 2019-0.3%-4.4%+11.0%
Q2 2019-4.4%-7.0%-6.5%
Q1 2019+0.9%-0.2%+2.0%
Q4 2018-5.5%-1.1%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.9%+11.1%
Q2 2018+18.7%+23.1%+34.7%
Q1 2018-2.9%-1.2%+3.4%
Q4 2017-3.8%-8.1%-2.8%
Q3 2017+16.1%+13.7%+14.6%
Q2 2017-6.8%-12.4%-4.0%
Q1 2017+26.3%+30.8%+31.3%
Q4 2016-17.2%+1.6%-6.0%
Q3 2016-5.9%-7.0%-9.3%
Q2 2016+10.1%+8.1%+4.2%
Q1 2016-20.6%
Q4 2015-1.5%
Q3 2015-8.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015+11.6%
Q4 2014+8.8%
Q3 2014+4.6%
Q2 2014-6.5%
Q1 2014+4.5%
Q4 2013-6.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+10.0%
Q3 2012+14.3%
Q2 2012-1.7%
Q1 2011-2.5%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.2%
Q3 2011+1.2%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q4 2010-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%

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