NYSE$MOH

Molina Healthcare Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported solid operating earnings and continued to drive growth strategy.

Molina Healthcare reported a GAAP earnings per diluted share of $2.46 and an adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.83 for Q3 2021. The company served approximately 4.8 million members as of September 30, 2021, representing a 20% increase compared to the previous year. Premium revenue for the third quarter of 2021 was approximately $6.8 billion, a 43% increase compared to the third quarter of 2020.

  • GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2021 was $143 million, or $2.46 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2021 was $164 million, or $2.83 per diluted share.
  • As of September 30, 2021, the Company served approximately 4.8 million members, an increase of 805,000 members, or 20%, compared to September 30, 2020.
  • Premium revenue was approximately $6.8 billion for the third quarter of 2021, an increase of 43% compared to the third quarter of 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.04B

Previous: $5.02B+40.2%
EPS (adj)

$2.83

Previous: $3.36-15.8%
Total Membership

4.8M

Previous: 4.0M+20.0%
Medicaid Membership

4.0M

Previous: 3.6M+10.7%
Medicare Membership

138.0K

Previous: 113.0K+22.1%
Marketplace Membership

719.0K

Previous: 325.0K+121.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$56M

Previous: -$64M+12.5%
Free Cash Flow

$87M

Previous: $121M-28.1%
Net Income

$143M

Previous: $185M-22.7%
Operating Income

$221M

Previous: $289M-23.5%
Gross Profit

$991M

Previous: $923M+7.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.36B

Previous: $3.2B+36.3%
Total Assets

$11B

Previous: $7.88B+40.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$14M

Previous: $15M-6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Molina · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.04B

Q3 2021+40.2%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Molina · $6.8B total across 3 segments · Q3 2021

  • Medicaid
    $5.15B
  • Medicare
    $875M
  • Marketplace
    $779M

Forward guidance

The Company expects its full year 2021 total revenue to be no less than $27.5 billion and reaffirmed its full year 2021 adjusted earnings per share guidance to be no less than $13.25 per share.

Tailwinds

  • The continuation of the Public Health Emergency period, through mid-January, 2022 and the associated pause on Medicaid membership redeterminations.
  • Underlying outperformance.
  • An offset caused by the estimated net effect of COVID which is expected to be approximately $3.00 per share for the full year 2021.
  • Continued caution in forecasting utilization trends for the remaining three months of the year due to the COVID pandemic.
  • The impact of the Cigna Texas membership acquisition is not included in guidance. The Cigna Texas membership acquisition is expected to close in January of 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.9%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

27 / 66 earnings

Positive

+26.3%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-25.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+21.2%+20.3%
Q4 2025-25.5%-30.6%-18.3%
Q3 2025-17.3%-16.5%-27.5%
Q2 2025+4.9%+8.8%+13.3%
Q1 2025-5.5%-3.7%-8.1%
Q4 2024-10.1%-13.9%+3.3%
Q3 2024+14.0%+11.0%+2.4%
Q2 2024+13.0%+16.1%+20.5%
Q1 2024-3.0%-5.3%-8.6%
Q4 2023+6.8%+9.9%+9.9%
Q3 2023-0.7%-1.7%+10.1%
Q2 2023-2.6%-3.5%+1.0%
Q1 2023+6.3%+9.4%-2.2%
Q4 2022-0.5%-1.1%-13.7%
Q3 2022-3.9%-2.0%-10.7%
Q2 2022+2.7%+5.3%+9.7%
Q1 2022-1.9%-4.7%-5.1%
Q4 2021-0.5%-0.0%+1.8%
Q3 2021-0.8%-0.5%-2.4%
Q2 2021-2.0%+5.4%+3.2%
Q1 2021+1.2%+2.2%+0.2%
Q4 2020+5.0%+5.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-8.2%-2.5%+1.5%
Q2 2020-1.6%-0.5%-2.0%
Q1 2020+5.2%+9.9%+12.8%
Q4 2019+10.5%+13.3%+3.1%
Q3 2019-0.3%-4.4%+11.0%
Q2 2019-4.4%-7.0%-6.5%
Q1 2019+0.9%-0.2%+2.0%
Q4 2018-5.5%-1.1%+3.6%
Q3 2018-0.8%-0.9%+11.1%
Q2 2018+18.7%+23.1%+34.7%
Q1 2018-2.9%-1.2%+3.4%
Q4 2017-3.8%-8.1%-2.8%
Q3 2017+16.1%+13.7%+14.6%
Q2 2017-6.8%-12.4%-4.0%
Q1 2017+26.3%+30.8%+31.3%
Q4 2016-17.2%+1.6%-6.0%
Q3 2016-5.9%-7.0%-9.3%
Q2 2016+10.1%+8.1%+4.2%
Q1 2016-20.6%
Q4 2015-1.5%
Q3 2015-8.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015+11.6%
Q4 2014+8.8%
Q3 2014+4.6%
Q2 2014-6.5%
Q1 2014+4.5%
Q4 2013-6.4%
Q3 2013-7.5%
Q2 2013-1.4%
Q1 2013+1.6%
Q4 2012+10.0%
Q3 2012+14.3%
Q2 2012-1.7%
Q1 2011-2.5%
Q1 2012+0.2%
Q4 2011-0.2%
Q1 2010-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.2%
Q3 2011+1.2%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q4 2010-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%

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