NYSE$MCO

Moody's Corp. · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moody's reported strong revenue growth driven by customer demand for services, insights, and solutions across both Moody's Investors Service and Moody's Analytics.

Moody's Corporation reported a revenue of $1.4 billion for Q3 2020, a 9% increase compared to Q3 2019. Diluted EPS increased by 24% to $2.47, while adjusted diluted EPS increased by 25% to $2.69. The company raised its full year 2020 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range to $9.95 to $10.15.

  • Moody's Corporation's Q3 2020 revenue reached $1.4 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year.
  • Moody's Investors Service (MIS) reported revenue of $825 million, up 11% from Q3 2019.
  • Moody's Analytics (MA) reported revenue of $531 million, up 7% from Q3 2019.
  • Diluted EPS for Q3 2020 was $2.47, a 24% increase from Q3 2019, while adjusted diluted EPS was $2.69, a 25% increase.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.36B

Previous: $1.24B+9.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.69

Previous: $2.15+25.1%
Adjusted Operating Margin

53.2%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$83M

Previous: -$60.9M-36.3%
Free Cash Flow

$384M

Previous: $319M+20.6%
Net Income

$467M

Previous: $379M+23.1%
Operating Income

$642M

Previous: $549M+17.0%
Gross Profit

$992M

Previous: -$350M+383.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.49B

Previous: $1.18B+111.5%
Total Assets

$11.7B

Previous: $9.48B+23.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$38M

Previous: $33M+15.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Moody's · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.36B

Q3 2020+9.3%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moody's · $1.35B total across 6 segments · Q3 2020

  • Corporate Finance
    $461M+17.6%
  • Research & Insights
    $386M
  • Decision Solutions
    $145M
  • Financial Institutions
    $134M+11.7%
  • Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance
    $133M+10.8%
  • Structured Finance
    $88M-16.2%

Forward guidance

Moody's updated outlook for 2020 reflects numerous assumptions about factors that could affect its business, including the impact of COVID-19, government and regulatory responses, and economic conditions. Full year 2020 diluted EPS is expected to be $9.30 to $9.50 and adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be $9.95 to $10.15.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue increase in the high-single-digit percent range.
  • Operating expenses increase in the low-single-digit percent range.
  • Operating margin approximately 45%.
  • Adjusted operating margin approximately 50%.
  • MIS global revenue increase in the low-double-digit percent range.

Headwinds

  • Approximately 6% and 9% declines in 2020 U.S. and Euro area GDPs, respectively.
  • U.S. high yield interest rate spreads of approximately 500 bps.
  • U.S. unemployment of approximately 8%.
  • Global high yield default rate rising to approximately 8% by the end of 2020.
  • The duration and severity of the COVID-19 crisis are unknown.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.5%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-8.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+0.3%-2.3%
Q4 2025+6.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2025-2.6%+2.1%-1.1%
Q2 2025+0.0%-1.8%-1.7%
Q1 2025+4.0%+6.1%+14.1%
Q4 2024+4.4%+2.8%-11.6%
Q3 2024-3.7%-5.0%-1.9%
Q2 2024-3.7%-0.4%+6.6%
Q1 2024+2.1%+5.7%+6.5%
Q4 2023-8.6%-7.6%-4.4%
Q3 2023+1.5%+0.2%+18.6%
Q2 2023+0.7%-1.0%-7.2%
Q1 2023+0.8%+3.5%+2.3%
Q4 2022+2.9%+3.2%-7.6%
Q3 2022+4.9%+9.8%+21.6%
Q2 2022+1.0%+6.8%+5.3%
Q1 2022-2.2%-5.1%-10.8%
Q4 2021-3.2%-3.9%-11.3%
Q3 2021+2.9%-0.5%-2.2%
Q2 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.7%
Q1 2021+1.1%+0.9%+2.7%
Q4 2020+0.6%+0.7%+4.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%+2.8%+5.9%
Q2 2020-3.5%-5.3%+1.0%
Q1 2020-5.2%-1.8%+4.9%
Q4 2019+0.7%+2.5%-21.4%
Q3 2019+0.1%-1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2019+6.8%+0.2%+6.6%
Q1 2019+2.4%+3.2%-1.9%
Q4 2018+2.6%+3.5%+7.9%
Q3 2018-8.9%-6.2%-3.1%
Q2 2018-8.0%-7.8%-6.7%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.2%+5.7%
Q4 2017+4.7%+7.5%+11.8%
Q3 2017+0.7%+1.0%+5.4%
Q2 2017+5.0%+4.8%+2.6%
Q1 2017-2.3%-2.3%-0.5%
Q4 2016+2.4%+3.0%+1.6%
Q3 2016-4.9%-5.5%-7.0%
Q2 2016+1.3%+0.8%+0.3%
Q1 2016-3.1%
Q4 2015-8.9%
Q3 2015-5.0%
Q2 2015-1.3%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.3%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-3.7%
Q2 2013+3.6%
Q1 2013+4.9%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+13.5%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011+0.3%
Q4 2010+0.4%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-7.5%
Q1 2010-2.8%
Q4 2007+2.2%
Q4 2009+2.2%
Q2 2009+2.2%
Q3 2008+2.0%
Q3 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008-4.9%
Q4 2008-4.9%

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