NYSE$MCO

Moody's Corp. · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moody's demonstrated increased demand for its risk assessment solutions and insights, driven by strong execution and robust activity.

Moody's Corporation reported a strong first quarter in 2021, with revenue up 24% year-over-year to $1.6 billion and diluted EPS up 52% to $3.90. The company is increasing its revenue outlook to high-single-digit percent growth, and raising and narrowing its full year 2021 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range to $11.00 to $11.30.

  • Moody's Corporation's 1Q 2021 revenue reached $1.6 billion, a 24% increase from 1Q 2020.
  • Moody's Investors Service (MIS) revenue grew by 30% to $1.0 billion.
  • Moody’s Analytics (MA) revenue increased by 14% to $564 million.
  • Diluted EPS for 1Q 2021 was $3.90, a 52% increase from 1Q 2020, while adjusted diluted EPS was $4.06, up by 49%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.6B

Previous: $1.29B+24.0%
EPS (adj)

$4.06

Previous: $2.73+48.7%
Adjusted Operating Margin

57.1%

Previous: 50.3%+13.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$14M

Previous: -$21M+33.3%
Free Cash Flow

$722M

Previous: $467M+54.6%
Net Income

$736M

Previous: $488M+50.8%
Operating Income

$853M

Previous: $592M+44.1%
Gross Profit

$1.21B

Previous: $950M+27.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.77B

Previous: $2.14B+29.3%
Total Assets

$12.5B

Previous: $11.3B+10.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$45M

Previous: $37M+21.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Moody's · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.6B

Q1 2021+24%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moody's · $1.47B total across 7 segments · Q3 2023

  • Decision Solutions
    $354M+8.9%
  • Corporate Finance
    $346M+24.9%
  • Research & Insights
    $222M+20.7%
  • Data & Information
    $200M+13.6%
  • Financial Institutions
    $126M+15.6%
  • Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance
    $115M+25.0%
  • Structured Finance
    $102M+1.0%

Forward guidance

Moody's updated outlook for 2021 reflects numerous assumptions about factors that could affect its business, including the impact of COVID-19, government and regulator responses, and effects on interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, and capital markets activity.

Tailwinds

  • Full year 2021 U.S. and Euro area GDPs expanding approximately 6% - 7% and 3.5% - 4.5%, respectively
  • U.S. high yield interest rate spreads below an average of approximately 450 bps
  • U.S. unemployment to decline to approximately 5% - 6%
  • The global high yield default rate falling to a range of 3% - 4% by the end of 2021
  • Full year 2021 guidance includes share repurchases of approximately $1.5 billion

Headwinds

  • MIS's full year global rated issuance decreases in the low-single-digit percent range.
  • The duration and severity of the COVID-19 crisis are unknown.
  • The implications of COVID-19 or other situations or developments could affect these and many other factors that also could cause actual results to differ materially from Moody’s outlook.
  • These assumptions are subject to uncertainty, and actual full year results for 2021 could differ materially from Moody’s current outlook.
  • Moody’s guidance assumes foreign currency translation at end-of-quarter exchange rates.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.5%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-8.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+0.3%-2.3%
Q4 2025+6.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2025-2.6%+2.1%-1.1%
Q2 2025+0.0%-1.8%-1.7%
Q1 2025+4.0%+6.1%+14.1%
Q4 2024+4.4%+2.8%-11.6%
Q3 2024-3.7%-5.0%-1.9%
Q2 2024-3.7%-0.4%+6.6%
Q1 2024+2.1%+5.7%+6.5%
Q4 2023-8.6%-7.6%-4.4%
Q3 2023+1.5%+0.2%+18.6%
Q2 2023+0.7%-1.0%-7.2%
Q1 2023+0.8%+3.5%+2.3%
Q4 2022+2.9%+3.2%-7.6%
Q3 2022+4.9%+9.8%+21.6%
Q2 2022+1.0%+6.8%+5.3%
Q1 2022-2.2%-5.1%-10.8%
Q4 2021-3.2%-3.9%-11.3%
Q3 2021+2.9%-0.5%-2.2%
Q2 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.7%
Q1 2021+1.1%+0.9%+2.7%
Q4 2020+0.6%+0.7%+4.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%+2.8%+5.9%
Q2 2020-3.5%-5.3%+1.0%
Q1 2020-5.2%-1.8%+4.9%
Q4 2019+0.7%+2.5%-21.4%
Q3 2019+0.1%-1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2019+6.8%+0.2%+6.6%
Q1 2019+2.4%+3.2%-1.9%
Q4 2018+2.6%+3.5%+7.9%
Q3 2018-8.9%-6.2%-3.1%
Q2 2018-8.0%-7.8%-6.7%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.2%+5.7%
Q4 2017+4.7%+7.5%+11.8%
Q3 2017+0.7%+1.0%+5.4%
Q2 2017+5.0%+4.8%+2.6%
Q1 2017-2.3%-2.3%-0.5%
Q4 2016+2.4%+3.0%+1.6%
Q3 2016-4.9%-5.5%-7.0%
Q2 2016+1.3%+0.8%+0.3%
Q1 2016-3.1%
Q4 2015-8.9%
Q3 2015-5.0%
Q2 2015-1.3%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.3%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-3.7%
Q2 2013+3.6%
Q1 2013+4.9%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+13.5%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011+0.3%
Q4 2010+0.4%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-7.5%
Q1 2010-2.8%
Q4 2007+2.2%
Q4 2009+2.2%
Q2 2009+2.2%
Q3 2008+2.0%
Q3 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008-4.9%
Q4 2008-4.9%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro