NYSE$MCO

Moody's Corp. · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moody's reported an 18% increase in revenue and a 66% increase in diluted EPS compared to the prior-year period. The company raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance due to the stronger-than-expected results.

Moody's Corporation reported strong second-quarter results, with revenue up 18% and diluted EPS up 66% year-over-year. Moody's Investors Service exhibited robust top-line growth, while Moody's Analytics growth remained resilient. The company raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance.

  • Moody's Corporation reported revenue of $1.4 billion, up 18% from the prior-year period.
  • Moody's Investors Service revenue was $938 million, up 27% from the prior-year period.
  • Moody's Analytics revenue was $497 million, up 5% from the prior-year period.
  • Diluted EPS was $2.69, up 66% from the prior-year period; adjusted diluted EPS was $2.81, up 36%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.44B

Previous: $1.21B+18.2%
EPS (adj)

$2.81

Previous: $2.07+35.7%
Adjusted Operating Margin

53.4%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$62M

Previous: -$38.7M-60.2%
Free Cash Flow

$447M

Previous: $272M+64.6%
Net Income

$509M

Previous: $310M+64.0%
Operating Income

$710M

Previous: $484M+46.8%
Gross Profit

$1.07B

Previous: -$340M+415.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.1B

Previous: $1.2B+75.5%
Total Assets

$11.3B

Previous: $9.59B+17.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$35M

Previous: $34M+2.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Moody's · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.44B

Q2 2020+18.2%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moody's · $1.47B total across 7 segments · Q3 2023

  • Decision Solutions
    $354M+8.9%
  • Corporate Finance
    $346M+24.9%
  • Research & Insights
    $222M+20.7%
  • Data & Information
    $200M+13.6%
  • Financial Institutions
    $126M+15.6%
  • Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance
    $115M+25.0%
  • Structured Finance
    $102M+1.0%

Forward guidance

Moody's updated outlook for 2020 reflects numerous assumptions about many factors that could affect its business based on information reviewed by management through and as of today’s date, including observations and assumptions regarding the impact of COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue increase in the low-single-digit percent range
  • Operating expenses approximately flat
  • Operating margin 43% - 44%
  • Adjusted operating margin 48% - 49%
  • Diluted EPS $8.15 to $8.55

Headwinds

  • Approximately 6% and 9% declines in 2020 U.S. and Euro Zone GDPs, respectively
  • High yield interest rate spreads peaking in excess of 650 bps
  • U.S. unemployment ending 2020 at approximately 10%
  • The high yield default rate rising to approximately 9% by the end of 2020
  • Assumes an anticipated restructuring program in the second half of 2020 around the rationalization and exit of certain real estate leases estimated to result in total pre-tax charges of $25 to $35 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.5%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-8.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+0.3%-2.3%
Q4 2025+6.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2025-2.6%+2.1%-1.1%
Q2 2025+0.0%-1.8%-1.7%
Q1 2025+4.0%+6.1%+14.1%
Q4 2024+4.4%+2.8%-11.6%
Q3 2024-3.7%-5.0%-1.9%
Q2 2024-3.7%-0.4%+6.6%
Q1 2024+2.1%+5.7%+6.5%
Q4 2023-8.6%-7.6%-4.4%
Q3 2023+1.5%+0.2%+18.6%
Q2 2023+0.7%-1.0%-7.2%
Q1 2023+0.8%+3.5%+2.3%
Q4 2022+2.9%+3.2%-7.6%
Q3 2022+4.9%+9.8%+21.6%
Q2 2022+1.0%+6.8%+5.3%
Q1 2022-2.2%-5.1%-10.8%
Q4 2021-3.2%-3.9%-11.3%
Q3 2021+2.9%-0.5%-2.2%
Q2 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.7%
Q1 2021+1.1%+0.9%+2.7%
Q4 2020+0.6%+0.7%+4.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%+2.8%+5.9%
Q2 2020-3.5%-5.3%+1.0%
Q1 2020-5.2%-1.8%+4.9%
Q4 2019+0.7%+2.5%-21.4%
Q3 2019+0.1%-1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2019+6.8%+0.2%+6.6%
Q1 2019+2.4%+3.2%-1.9%
Q4 2018+2.6%+3.5%+7.9%
Q3 2018-8.9%-6.2%-3.1%
Q2 2018-8.0%-7.8%-6.7%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.2%+5.7%
Q4 2017+4.7%+7.5%+11.8%
Q3 2017+0.7%+1.0%+5.4%
Q2 2017+5.0%+4.8%+2.6%
Q1 2017-2.3%-2.3%-0.5%
Q4 2016+2.4%+3.0%+1.6%
Q3 2016-4.9%-5.5%-7.0%
Q2 2016+1.3%+0.8%+0.3%
Q1 2016-3.1%
Q4 2015-8.9%
Q3 2015-5.0%
Q2 2015-1.3%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.3%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-3.7%
Q2 2013+3.6%
Q1 2013+4.9%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+13.5%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011+0.3%
Q4 2010+0.4%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-7.5%
Q1 2010-2.8%
Q4 2007+2.2%
Q4 2009+2.2%
Q2 2009+2.2%
Q3 2008+2.0%
Q3 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008-4.9%
Q4 2008-4.9%

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