NYSE$MCO

Moody's Corp. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moody's Corporation reported a strong Q4 2019 with revenue up 16% and diluted EPS up 46%.

Moody's Corporation reported Q4 2019 revenue of $1.2 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year. Diluted EPS was $1.88, up 46% from Q4 2018, and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.00, a 23% increase. The company's full year revenue was $4.8 billion, a 9% increase from FY 2018.

  • Q4 2019 revenue increased by 16% to $1.2 billion.
  • Q4 2019 diluted EPS grew by 46% to $1.88.
  • Moody's Investors Service (MIS) revenue increased by 21% to $720 million.
  • Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue increased by 10% to $513 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.23B

Previous: $1.06B+16.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.00

Previous: $1.63+22.7%
Operating Margin

40.9%

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin

45.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$8.1M

Previous: $27.5M-70.5%
Free Cash Flow

$471M

Previous: $349M+35.1%
Net Income

$361M

Previous: $250M+44.2%
Operating Income

$504M

Previous: $377M+33.8%
Gross Profit

$878M

Previous: $756M+16.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.83B

Previous: $1.69B+8.7%
Total Assets

$10.3B

Previous: $9.53B+7.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$32.8M

Previous: $30.3M+8.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Moody's · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.23B

Q4 2019+16.3%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moody's · $1.22B total across 7 segments · Q4 2019

  • Corporate Finance
    $362M+24.4%
  • Decision Solutions
    $333M
  • Research & Insights
    $149M
  • Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance
    $125M+37.4%
  • Financial Institutions
    $115M+32.2%
  • Structured Finance
    $109M-9.9%
  • Data & Information
    $31M

Forward guidance

Moody's anticipates mid-single-digit percent range revenue increase. Operating expenses are expected to increase in the low-single-digit percent range. Diluted EPS is projected to be $8.60 to $8.80 and adjusted diluted EPS $9.10 to $9.30.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue increase in the mid-single-digit percent range
  • Operating expenses increase in the low-single-digit percent range
  • Operating margin approximately 44%
  • Adjusted operating margin 48% - 49%
  • Diluted EPS $8.60 to $8.80

Headwinds

  • Assumptions about geopolitical conditions
  • Macroeconomic and capital market factors
  • Interest rates
  • Foreign currency exchange rates
  • Corporate profitability and business investment spending

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.5%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-8.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+0.3%-2.3%
Q4 2025+6.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2025-2.6%+2.1%-1.1%
Q2 2025+0.0%-1.8%-1.7%
Q1 2025+4.0%+6.1%+14.1%
Q4 2024+4.4%+2.8%-11.6%
Q3 2024-3.7%-5.0%-1.9%
Q2 2024-3.7%-0.4%+6.6%
Q1 2024+2.1%+5.7%+6.5%
Q4 2023-8.6%-7.6%-4.4%
Q3 2023+1.5%+0.2%+18.6%
Q2 2023+0.7%-1.0%-7.2%
Q1 2023+0.8%+3.5%+2.3%
Q4 2022+2.9%+3.2%-7.6%
Q3 2022+4.9%+9.8%+21.6%
Q2 2022+1.0%+6.8%+5.3%
Q1 2022-2.2%-5.1%-10.8%
Q4 2021-3.2%-3.9%-11.3%
Q3 2021+2.9%-0.5%-2.2%
Q2 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.7%
Q1 2021+1.1%+0.9%+2.7%
Q4 2020+0.6%+0.7%+4.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%+2.8%+5.9%
Q2 2020-3.5%-5.3%+1.0%
Q1 2020-5.2%-1.8%+4.9%
Q4 2019+0.7%+2.5%-21.4%
Q3 2019+0.1%-1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2019+6.8%+0.2%+6.6%
Q1 2019+2.4%+3.2%-1.9%
Q4 2018+2.6%+3.5%+7.9%
Q3 2018-8.9%-6.2%-3.1%
Q2 2018-8.0%-7.8%-6.7%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.2%+5.7%
Q4 2017+4.7%+7.5%+11.8%
Q3 2017+0.7%+1.0%+5.4%
Q2 2017+5.0%+4.8%+2.6%
Q1 2017-2.3%-2.3%-0.5%
Q4 2016+2.4%+3.0%+1.6%
Q3 2016-4.9%-5.5%-7.0%
Q2 2016+1.3%+0.8%+0.3%
Q1 2016-3.1%
Q4 2015-8.9%
Q3 2015-5.0%
Q2 2015-1.3%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.3%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-3.7%
Q2 2013+3.6%
Q1 2013+4.9%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+13.5%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011+0.3%
Q4 2010+0.4%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-7.5%
Q1 2010-2.8%
Q4 2007+2.2%
Q4 2009+2.2%
Q2 2009+2.2%
Q3 2008+2.0%
Q3 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008-4.9%
Q4 2008-4.9%

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