NYSE$MCO

Moody's Corp. · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moody's announced the acquisition of RMS and updated its full-year 2021 guidance.

Moody's Corporation announced the acquisition of RMS, a climate and natural disaster risk modeling and analytics firm, for approximately $2.0 billion. The acquisition is expected to close in late 3Q 2021. Moody's updated its full-year 2021 diluted EPS guidance to $10.90 to $11.20 and adjusted diluted EPS outlook to $11.55 to $11.85.

  • Moody's to acquire RMS for approximately $2.0 billion.
  • The acquisition will increase Moody’s insurance data and analytics business to nearly $500 million in revenue.
  • Moody's updated its full-year 2021 diluted EPS guidance to $10.90 to $11.20.
  • The Company’s 2021 adjusted diluted EPS outlook remains in the range of $11.55 to $11.85.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.55B

Previous: $1.44B+8.2%
EPS (adj)

$3.22

Previous: $2.81+14.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$44M

Previous: -$62M+29.0%
Free Cash Flow

$533M

Previous: $447M+19.2%
Net Income

$577M

Previous: $509M+13.4%
Operating Income

$801M

Previous: $710M+12.8%
Gross Profit

$1.19B

Previous: $1.07B+10.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.81B

Previous: $2.1B+33.8%
Total Assets

$12.6B

Previous: $11.3B+11.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$41M

Previous: $35M+17.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Moody's · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.55B

Q2 2021+8.2%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moody's · $1.47B total across 7 segments · Q3 2023

  • Decision Solutions
    $354M+8.9%
  • Corporate Finance
    $346M+24.9%
  • Research & Insights
    $222M+20.7%
  • Data & Information
    $200M+13.6%
  • Financial Institutions
    $126M+15.6%
  • Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance
    $115M+25.0%
  • Structured Finance
    $102M+1.0%

Forward guidance

Moody's updated its full-year 2021 guidance, assuming the acquisition of RMS closes late in the third quarter of 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue increase in the low-double-digit percent range
  • Operating margin of 45% - 46%
  • Adjusted Operating Margin approximately 50%
  • Diluted EPS of $10.90 to $11.20
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS of $11.55 to $11.85

Headwinds

  • Operating expenses approximately 10% increase in the mid-single-digit percent range
  • Interest expense, net $160 - $180 million
  • Effective tax rate 20% - 22%
  • Operating cash flow $2.3 to $2.4 billion
  • Free Cash Flow $2.2 to $2.3 billion

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

44 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.5%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-8.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+0.3%-2.3%
Q4 2025+6.6%+3.3%+2.8%
Q3 2025-2.6%+2.1%-1.1%
Q2 2025+0.0%-1.8%-1.7%
Q1 2025+4.0%+6.1%+14.1%
Q4 2024+4.4%+2.8%-11.6%
Q3 2024-3.7%-5.0%-1.9%
Q2 2024-3.7%-0.4%+6.6%
Q1 2024+2.1%+5.7%+6.5%
Q4 2023-8.6%-7.6%-4.4%
Q3 2023+1.5%+0.2%+18.6%
Q2 2023+0.7%-1.0%-7.2%
Q1 2023+0.8%+3.5%+2.3%
Q4 2022+2.9%+3.2%-7.6%
Q3 2022+4.9%+9.8%+21.6%
Q2 2022+1.0%+6.8%+5.3%
Q1 2022-2.2%-5.1%-10.8%
Q4 2021-3.2%-3.9%-11.3%
Q3 2021+2.9%-0.5%-2.2%
Q2 2021+0.6%-0.6%+0.7%
Q1 2021+1.1%+0.9%+2.7%
Q4 2020+0.6%+0.7%+4.7%
Q3 2020+0.4%+2.8%+5.9%
Q2 2020-3.5%-5.3%+1.0%
Q1 2020-5.2%-1.8%+4.9%
Q4 2019+0.7%+2.5%-21.4%
Q3 2019+0.1%-1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2019+6.8%+0.2%+6.6%
Q1 2019+2.4%+3.2%-1.9%
Q4 2018+2.6%+3.5%+7.9%
Q3 2018-8.9%-6.2%-3.1%
Q2 2018-8.0%-7.8%-6.7%
Q1 2018-1.5%-1.2%+5.7%
Q4 2017+4.7%+7.5%+11.8%
Q3 2017+0.7%+1.0%+5.4%
Q2 2017+5.0%+4.8%+2.6%
Q1 2017-2.3%-2.3%-0.5%
Q4 2016+2.4%+3.0%+1.6%
Q3 2016-4.9%-5.5%-7.0%
Q2 2016+1.3%+0.8%+0.3%
Q1 2016-3.1%
Q4 2015-8.9%
Q3 2015-5.0%
Q2 2015-1.3%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+5.0%
Q3 2014+2.3%
Q2 2014-1.6%
Q1 2014-1.6%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013-3.7%
Q2 2013+3.6%
Q1 2013+4.9%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+13.5%
Q1 2012-1.0%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-2.2%
Q1 2011+0.3%
Q4 2010+0.4%
Q3 2010-0.2%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-7.5%
Q1 2010-2.8%
Q4 2007+2.2%
Q4 2009+2.2%
Q2 2009+2.2%
Q3 2008+2.0%
Q3 2009+2.0%
Q2 2008-4.9%
Q4 2008-4.9%

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