NYSE$EL

Estee Lauder Companies Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Returned to organic sales growth and delivered the outlook for the quarter. Momentum continued in EMEA and Latin America, and accelerated strongly in Asia/Pacific led by mainland China and Hong Kong SAR.

The Estée Lauder Companies reported a 1% increase in net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023, with organic net sales increasing by 4%. Growth was driven by Makeup, Fragrance, and Hair Care, as well as double-digit growth in emerging markets. Net loss for the quarter was $33 million, or $.09 per diluted share.

  • Net sales returned to growth, increasing 1% on a reported basis and 4% organically.
  • Makeup net sales increased sequentially each quarter, to growth of 13% in the fiscal 2023 fourth quarter.
  • Fragrance net sales rose 14%, reflecting double-digit growth across every region and led by TOM FORD, Estée Lauder and Le Labo.
  • Net sales grew in nearly all markets in Asia/Pacific and EMEA as they continued to progress in recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.61B

Previous: $3.56B+1.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.07

Previous: $0.42-83.3%
Capital Expenditures

$351M

Previous: $382M-8.1%
Free Cash Flow

$363M

Previous: $689M-47.3%
Net Income

-$32M

Previous: $50M-164.0%
Operating Income

-$5M

Previous: $79M-106.3%
Gross Profit

$2.45B

Previous: $2.53B-3.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.03B

Previous: $3.96B+1.8%
Total Assets

$23.4B

Previous: $20.9B+12.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$33M

Previous: $48M-31.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Estee Lauder · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.61B

Q4 2023+1.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Estee Lauder · $3.63B total across 5 segments · Q4 2023

  • Skin Care
    $1.79B-4.7%
  • Makeup
    $1.11B+11.6%
  • Fragrance
    $545M+4.6%
  • Hair Care
    $164M+5.1%
  • Other
    $15M+66.7%

Forward guidance

The Company enters the fiscal year with the continued focus on accelerating balanced and profitable growth across regions, brands, product categories and channels.

Tailwinds

  • Sequential net sales growth improvement quarterly
  • Full-year gross margin expansion primarily driven by strategic price increases, discount reductions and lower obsolescence charges, partially offset by manufacturing under-absorption.
  • Sequential operating margin improvement quarterly throughout fiscal 2024, with greater expansion in the second half of fiscal year 2024 due to the cadence of the improvement of the Asia travel retail business.
  • Full-year effective tax rate of approximately 27%.
  • Net cash flows provided by operating activities are forecast to be between $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion.

Headwinds

  • The rebalancing of inventory in Asia travel retail is expected to partially offset the anticipated growth in many other markets globally
  • The cybersecurity incident is expected to have an immaterial impact to net sales and a dilutive impact to net earnings per common share of approximately $.07 for the fiscal 2024 first quarter and full year.
  • The Company is mindful of the headwinds that have emerged in China’s economy.
  • The Company is also conscious of the potential impacts to its business from volatility associated with high inflation
  • The Company is monitoring the impact on consumer preferences.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q4 2019

Best reaction

-23.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+0.8%+13.0%+16.1%
Q2 2026-19.2%-15.3%-22.5%
Q1 2026+0.3%-4.6%-3.4%
Q3 2025-1.8%-2.4%+11.6%
Q2 2025-16.1%-21.4%-13.6%
Q1 2025-23.6%-24.4%-17.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-1.3%-7.3%
Q3 2024-8.0%-11.3%-15.9%
Q2 2024+9.0%+6.9%+8.4%
Q1 2024-11.2%-12.6%+2.4%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.7%-3.9%
Q3 2023-18.0%-16.0%-23.2%
Q2 2023-4.0%-7.0%-9.8%
Q1 2023-6.3%-0.4%+15.6%
Q4 2022-1.2%-4.0%-13.4%
Q3 2022-1.3%-7.8%+1.4%
Q2 2022-1.8%-1.3%-10.5%
Q1 2022+4.7%+7.5%+2.9%
Q4 2021+3.5%+5.8%+0.3%
Q3 2021-3.7%-3.3%-3.2%
Q2 2021+10.9%+12.4%+15.7%
Q1 2021+2.3%+8.6%+11.7%
Q4 2020-2.6%+1.4%-0.1%
Q3 2020-1.1%-3.9%+11.9%
Q2 2020+3.8%+4.2%-4.7%
Q1 2020-3.5%-4.8%+1.1%
Q4 2019+12.8%+10.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019-0.9%-1.0%-6.3%
Q2 2019+10.3%+13.6%+14.1%
Q1 2019+8.2%+8.1%+8.7%
Q4 2018+0.5%-0.3%+2.7%
Q3 2018-7.5%-7.7%+2.4%
Q2 2018-0.2%+0.1%+4.5%
Q1 2018+7.5%+8.3%+11.6%
Q4 2017+8.3%+6.2%+11.6%
Q3 2017+5.0%+5.9%+9.9%
Q2 2017+3.9%+4.4%+3.8%
Q1 2017-7.8%-6.7%-12.1%
Q4 2016-3.9%-4.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.1%
Q2 2016+3.0%
Q1 2016+7.9%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015-6.3%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014+2.6%
Q2 2014-3.5%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013+3.5%
Q2 2013+3.7%
Q1 2013-2.6%
Q4 2012+10.8%
Q3 2012+0.2%
Q2 2012-0.1%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q2 2011+4.0%
Q4 2009+4.0%
Q4 2011+4.0%
Q3 2011+5.7%
Q3 2010+5.7%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q4 2010-0.9%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%

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