NYSE$EL

Estee Lauder Companies Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net sales and diluted EPS decreased due to slower Asia travel retail recovery, while nearly all markets delivered net sales growth ahead of expectations.

The Estée Lauder Companies reported a 12% decrease in net sales and a 72% decline in diluted EPS for the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Organic net sales fell by 8%, primarily due to slower recovery in Asia travel retail, but nearly all markets experienced net sales growth ahead of expectations. The company is lowering its full-year outlook to reflect a more gradual recovery in Asia travel retail.

  • Net sales decreased 12% and Diluted EPS Declined 72%.
  • Organic Net Sales Decreased 8% due to Asia travel retail.
  • Developed and emerging markets grew strongly and exceeded expectations.
  • The Americas and Asia/Pacific returned to organic sales growth.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.75B

Previous: $4.25B-11.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.47

Previous: $1.90-75.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$652M

Previous: -$658M+0.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$497M

Previous: -$85M-484.7%
Net Income

$155M

Previous: $573M-72.9%
Operating Income

$297M

Previous: $738M-59.8%
Gross Profit

$2.59B

Previous: $3.25B-20.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.53B

Previous: $3.84B+44.2%
Total Assets

$22.7B

Previous: $21.4B+6.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$69M

Previous: $91M-24.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Estee Lauder · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.75B

Q3 2023-11.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Estee Lauder · $3.76B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Skin Care
    $1.92B-19.7%
  • Makeup
    $1.09B-2.3%
  • Fragrance
    $585M+1.0%
  • Hair Care
    $149M+1.4%
  • Other
    $11M+0.0%

Forward guidance

The Company expects organic net sales to return to growth in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued momentum of post-COVID recovery growth in nearly all markets globally.

Tailwinds

  • Balanced growth in the fourth quarter across nearly all other markets globally and accelerated consumer demand in mainland China.
  • Strategic price increases
  • Increased productive distribution to retailers that provide new consumer reach
  • Continued strategic entry into new countries for some of the Company’s brands.
  • Incremental savings from the Post-COVID Business Acceleration Program and reinvestment in advertising and capabilities.

Headwinds

  • A slower than expected return to growth in Asia travel retail
  • The progress towards the rebalancing of inventory levels in Hainan, given the disruptions from the COVID-related impacts throughout fiscal 2023 and the tightening of inventory by retailers.
  • The temporary pressure to the Company’s travel retail business in Korea due to retailers transitioning to post-COVID regulations as traveling consumers gradually return.
  • A slower pace of resumption of Asia travel retail net sales than previously anticipated given the more gradual return of international flights, granting of visas, availability of organized group tours, and consumer conversion in the beauty category.
  • The acquisition of the TOM FORD brand is expected to be approximately $.03 to $.04 dilutive to full year diluted earnings per common share.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q4 2019

Best reaction

-23.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+0.8%+13.0%+16.1%
Q2 2026-19.2%-15.3%-22.5%
Q1 2026+0.3%-4.6%-3.4%
Q3 2025-1.8%-2.4%+11.6%
Q2 2025-16.1%-21.4%-13.6%
Q1 2025-23.6%-24.4%-17.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-1.3%-7.3%
Q3 2024-8.0%-11.3%-15.9%
Q2 2024+9.0%+6.9%+8.4%
Q1 2024-11.2%-12.6%+2.4%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.7%-3.9%
Q3 2023-18.0%-16.0%-23.2%
Q2 2023-4.0%-7.0%-9.8%
Q1 2023-6.3%-0.4%+15.6%
Q4 2022-1.2%-4.0%-13.4%
Q3 2022-1.3%-7.8%+1.4%
Q2 2022-1.8%-1.3%-10.5%
Q1 2022+4.7%+7.5%+2.9%
Q4 2021+3.5%+5.8%+0.3%
Q3 2021-3.7%-3.3%-3.2%
Q2 2021+10.9%+12.4%+15.7%
Q1 2021+2.3%+8.6%+11.7%
Q4 2020-2.6%+1.4%-0.1%
Q3 2020-1.1%-3.9%+11.9%
Q2 2020+3.8%+4.2%-4.7%
Q1 2020-3.5%-4.8%+1.1%
Q4 2019+12.8%+10.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019-0.9%-1.0%-6.3%
Q2 2019+10.3%+13.6%+14.1%
Q1 2019+8.2%+8.1%+8.7%
Q4 2018+0.5%-0.3%+2.7%
Q3 2018-7.5%-7.7%+2.4%
Q2 2018-0.2%+0.1%+4.5%
Q1 2018+7.5%+8.3%+11.6%
Q4 2017+8.3%+6.2%+11.6%
Q3 2017+5.0%+5.9%+9.9%
Q2 2017+3.9%+4.4%+3.8%
Q1 2017-7.8%-6.7%-12.1%
Q4 2016-3.9%-4.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.1%
Q2 2016+3.0%
Q1 2016+7.9%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015-6.3%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014+2.6%
Q2 2014-3.5%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013+3.5%
Q2 2013+3.7%
Q1 2013-2.6%
Q4 2012+10.8%
Q3 2012+0.2%
Q2 2012-0.1%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q2 2011+4.0%
Q4 2009+4.0%
Q4 2011+4.0%
Q3 2011+5.7%
Q3 2010+5.7%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q4 2010-0.9%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%

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