NYSE$EL

Estee Lauder Companies Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

The Estée Lauder Companies reported a decrease in net sales and diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022.

The Estée Lauder Companies reported a 10% decrease in net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022, with net sales of $3.56 billion. Net earnings were $52 million, and diluted earnings per share was $0.14. Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share was $0.42.

  • Net sales decreased by 10% compared to the prior-year period, with organic net sales decreasing by 8%.
  • Strong growth in The Americas was offset by negative impacts from COVID-related restrictions in China and suspension of commercial activities in Russia and Ukraine.
  • Net earnings were $52 million, and diluted earnings per share was $0.14.
  • Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share was $0.42.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.56B

Previous: $3.94B-9.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.42

Previous: $0.78-46.2%
Capital Expenditures

$382M

Previous: $251M+52.2%
Free Cash Flow

$689M

Previous: $603M+14.3%
Net Income

$50M

Previous: $1.02B-95.1%
Operating Income

$79M

Previous: $234M-66.2%
Gross Profit

$2.53B

Previous: $2.95B-14.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.96B

Previous: $4.96B-20.2%
Total Assets

$20.9B

Previous: $22B-4.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$48M

Previous: $72M-33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Estee Lauder · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.56B

Q4 2022-9.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Estee Lauder · $3.56B total across 5 segments · Q4 2022

  • Skin Care
    $1.88B-20.6%
  • Makeup
    $993M+3.4%
  • Fragrance
    $521M+16.3%
  • Hair Care
    $156M+2.0%
  • Other
    $9M+12.5%

Forward guidance

The Company enters the fiscal year during a volatile period of record inflation, supply chain disruptions, strengthening U.S. dollar, risk of a slowdown in many markets globally, and with a strong headwind from the August 2022 COVID-19 restrictions in Hainan.

Tailwinds

  • More balanced growth across categories, regions and channels as the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions begin to abate.
  • Targeted expanded distribution throughout the year to retailers that provide broader consumer reach.
  • A continued gradual resumption of global international travel, including to Hainan.
  • Incremental savings from the Post-COVID Business Acceleration Program and reinvestment in advertising and capabilities.
  • Full-year effective tax rate of approximately 23%.

Headwinds

  • Reported net sales are forecasted to decrease between 10% and 8% versus the prior-year period.
  • Organic net sales are forecasted to decrease between 6% and 4%.
  • Reported diluted net earnings per common share are projected to be between $1.16 and $1.28.
  • Adjusted diluted earnings per common share are expected to decrease between 34% and 28% on a constant currency basis.
  • The negative currency impact equates to about $.04 of diluted earnings per share.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q4 2019

Best reaction

-23.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+0.8%+13.0%+16.1%
Q2 2026-19.2%-15.3%-22.5%
Q1 2026+0.3%-4.6%-3.4%
Q3 2025-1.8%-2.4%+11.6%
Q2 2025-16.1%-21.4%-13.6%
Q1 2025-23.6%-24.4%-17.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-1.3%-7.3%
Q3 2024-8.0%-11.3%-15.9%
Q2 2024+9.0%+6.9%+8.4%
Q1 2024-11.2%-12.6%+2.4%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.7%-3.9%
Q3 2023-18.0%-16.0%-23.2%
Q2 2023-4.0%-7.0%-9.8%
Q1 2023-6.3%-0.4%+15.6%
Q4 2022-1.2%-4.0%-13.4%
Q3 2022-1.3%-7.8%+1.4%
Q2 2022-1.8%-1.3%-10.5%
Q1 2022+4.7%+7.5%+2.9%
Q4 2021+3.5%+5.8%+0.3%
Q3 2021-3.7%-3.3%-3.2%
Q2 2021+10.9%+12.4%+15.7%
Q1 2021+2.3%+8.6%+11.7%
Q4 2020-2.6%+1.4%-0.1%
Q3 2020-1.1%-3.9%+11.9%
Q2 2020+3.8%+4.2%-4.7%
Q1 2020-3.5%-4.8%+1.1%
Q4 2019+12.8%+10.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019-0.9%-1.0%-6.3%
Q2 2019+10.3%+13.6%+14.1%
Q1 2019+8.2%+8.1%+8.7%
Q4 2018+0.5%-0.3%+2.7%
Q3 2018-7.5%-7.7%+2.4%
Q2 2018-0.2%+0.1%+4.5%
Q1 2018+7.5%+8.3%+11.6%
Q4 2017+8.3%+6.2%+11.6%
Q3 2017+5.0%+5.9%+9.9%
Q2 2017+3.9%+4.4%+3.8%
Q1 2017-7.8%-6.7%-12.1%
Q4 2016-3.9%-4.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.1%
Q2 2016+3.0%
Q1 2016+7.9%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015-6.3%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014+2.6%
Q2 2014-3.5%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013+3.5%
Q2 2013+3.7%
Q1 2013-2.6%
Q4 2012+10.8%
Q3 2012+0.2%
Q2 2012-0.1%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q2 2011+4.0%
Q4 2009+4.0%
Q4 2011+4.0%
Q3 2011+5.7%
Q3 2010+5.7%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q4 2010-0.9%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%

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