NYSE$EL

Estee Lauder Companies Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Estee Lauder's Q3 2024 results were released, showing sales and EPS growth, driven by strong performance in Asia travel retail and key brands.

Estée Lauder reported a 5% increase in net sales to $3.94 billion and a rise in diluted EPS to $0.91. Organic net sales grew by 6%, primarily driven by double-digit growth in EMEA, fueled by stronger sales in Asia travel retail. The company is confident in its renewed net sales and profit growth trajectory.

  • Net sales increased by 5%, reaching $3.94 billion, while organic net sales grew by 6%.
  • Diluted EPS increased to $0.91, and adjusted diluted EPS rose to $0.97.
  • Asia travel retail returned to net sales growth, contributing to overall performance.
  • The company affirms an inflection point of net sales growth and profitability in the second half of the fiscal year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.94B

Previous: $3.75B+5.0%
EPS

$0.91

Previous: $0.47+93.6%
Gross Margin

71.9%

No prior period
Operating Margin

13.5%

No prior period
Adj. Operating Margin

14.1%

No prior period
Effective Tax Rate

31.1%

No prior period
Adj. Effective Tax Rate

30.5%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$702M

Previous: -$652M-7.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$367M

Previous: -$497M+26.2%
Net Income

$335M

Previous: $155M+116.1%
Operating Income

$531M

Previous: $297M+78.8%
Gross Profit

$2.83B

Previous: $2.59B+9.3%
Total Assets

$22.7B

Previous: $22.7B-0.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$87M

Previous: $69M+26.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Estee Lauder · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.94B

Q3 2024+5%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Estee Lauder · $3.52B total across 5 segments · Q1 2024

  • Skin Care
    $1.64B-22.1%
  • Makeup
    $1.06B+1.0%
  • Fragrance
    $637M+4.9%
  • Hair Care
    $148M-6.3%
  • Other
    $32M+128.6%

Forward guidance

The company forecasts net sales to increase between 5% and 9% and organic net sales to increase between 6% and 10% for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. Reported diluted net earnings per common share are projected to be between $.11 and $.22. Excluding restructuring and other charges and adjustments, diluted net earnings per common share are projected to be between $.18 and $.28.

Tailwinds

  • Acceleration of organic net sales growth in the fiscal 2024 fourth quarter and high-single-digit growth in the second half.
  • In Asia travel retail, a continuation of net sales growth in the fiscal 2024 fourth quarter, as well as investments to drive retail sales, following meaningful progress made through the third quarter.
  • Clinique doubling down in Active Derma with new campaigns in the United States and the United Kingdom in the second half of fiscal 2024.
  • Gross margin expansion in the second half of fiscal 2024 compared to the prior-year period.
  • Stronger operating margin in the second half of fiscal 2024 compared to the first half, with expansion compared to the prior-year period.

Headwinds

  • Currency exchange rates are volatile and difficult to predict, expecting a 1% headwind due to foreign currency translation.
  • The combined impact from the increases in the Company’s net interest expense and effective tax rate is expected to dilute net earnings per common share by $.21.
  • The company expects to take charges associated with previously approved restructuring and other activities. For the Restructuring Program Component of the Profit Recovery Plan, the charges are estimated to be between approximately $25 million to $30 million, equal to $.05 to $.06 per diluted common share.
  • The potential risks of further business disruptions in Israel and other parts of the Middle East are expected to have a dilutive impact to net earnings per common share of $.03.
  • Ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, including continued softness in overall prestige beauty in mainland China, and geopolitical volatility in some areas around the world.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+12.8%

Q4 2019

Best reaction

-23.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+0.8%+13.0%+16.1%
Q2 2026-19.2%-15.3%-22.5%
Q1 2026+0.3%-4.6%-3.4%
Q3 2025-1.8%-2.4%+11.6%
Q2 2025-16.1%-21.4%-13.6%
Q1 2025-23.6%-24.4%-17.2%
Q4 2024-4.2%-1.3%-7.3%
Q3 2024-8.0%-11.3%-15.9%
Q2 2024+9.0%+6.9%+8.4%
Q1 2024-11.2%-12.6%+2.4%
Q4 2023-6.9%-5.7%-3.9%
Q3 2023-18.0%-16.0%-23.2%
Q2 2023-4.0%-7.0%-9.8%
Q1 2023-6.3%-0.4%+15.6%
Q4 2022-1.2%-4.0%-13.4%
Q3 2022-1.3%-7.8%+1.4%
Q2 2022-1.8%-1.3%-10.5%
Q1 2022+4.7%+7.5%+2.9%
Q4 2021+3.5%+5.8%+0.3%
Q3 2021-3.7%-3.3%-3.2%
Q2 2021+10.9%+12.4%+15.7%
Q1 2021+2.3%+8.6%+11.7%
Q4 2020-2.6%+1.4%-0.1%
Q3 2020-1.1%-3.9%+11.9%
Q2 2020+3.8%+4.2%-4.7%
Q1 2020-3.5%-4.8%+1.1%
Q4 2019+12.8%+10.0%+7.1%
Q3 2019-0.9%-1.0%-6.3%
Q2 2019+10.3%+13.6%+14.1%
Q1 2019+8.2%+8.1%+8.7%
Q4 2018+0.5%-0.3%+2.7%
Q3 2018-7.5%-7.7%+2.4%
Q2 2018-0.2%+0.1%+4.5%
Q1 2018+7.5%+8.3%+11.6%
Q4 2017+8.3%+6.2%+11.6%
Q3 2017+5.0%+5.9%+9.9%
Q2 2017+3.9%+4.4%+3.8%
Q1 2017-7.8%-6.7%-12.1%
Q4 2016-3.9%-4.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.1%
Q2 2016+3.0%
Q1 2016+7.9%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+4.6%
Q2 2015+9.6%
Q1 2015-6.3%
Q4 2014+1.2%
Q3 2014+2.6%
Q2 2014-3.5%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+3.3%
Q3 2013+3.5%
Q2 2013+3.7%
Q1 2013-2.6%
Q4 2012+10.8%
Q3 2012+0.2%
Q2 2012-0.1%
Q1 2012+2.4%
Q2 2011+4.0%
Q4 2009+4.0%
Q4 2011+4.0%
Q3 2011+5.7%
Q3 2010+5.7%
Q2 2010-0.6%
Q4 2010-0.9%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%

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