NYSE$BROS

Dutch Bros Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Dutch Bros reported strong Q4 2023 results with significant revenue growth and new shop openings.

Dutch Bros Inc. reported a 25.9% increase in total revenues, reaching $254.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2023. The company opened 37 new shops, with system same shop sales increasing by 5.0%. Despite the revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $3.8 million.

  • Total revenues grew by 25.9% to $254.1 million compared to Q4 2022.
  • System same shop sales increased by 5.0%, and company-operated same shop sales increased by 4.6%.
  • Opened 37 new shops, 32 of which were company-operated.
  • Net loss was $3.8 million, compared to $2.8 million in the same period of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$254M

Previous: $202M+25.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.04

Previous: $0.03+33.3%
Systemwide sales

$375M

Previous: $298M+25.8%
Systemwide same shop sales

5.0%

Previous: -0.6%+933.3%
Company-operated same shop sales

4.6%

Previous: -2.1%+319.0%
Total shop count, end of period

831

Previous: 671+23.8%
Company-operated shops, end of period

542

Previous: 396+36.9%
Franchised shops, end of period

289

Previous: 275+5.1%
Company-operated new openings

32

Previous: 26+23.1%
Franchised new openings

5

Previous: 4+25.0%
Capital Expenditures

$60.7M

Previous: $53.2M+14.0%
Net Income

-$3.77M

Previous: -$2.82M-33.8%
Operating Income

$2.18M

Previous: $3.77M-42.1%
Gross Profit

$59.1M

Previous: $54.4M+8.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.2M

Previous: $10.7M-4.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Dutch Bros · Revenue · Quarterly

$254M

Q4 2023+25.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Dutch Bros · $265M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Company-operated shops
    $236M+36.3%
  • Franchising and other
    $28M+11.5%

Forward guidance

Dutch Bros anticipates total system shop openings between 150 to 165 and projects total revenues between $1.190 billion and $1.205 billion for 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Total system shop openings are expected to be in the range of 150 to 165.
  • Total revenues are projected to be between $1.190 billion and $1.205 billion.
  • Same shop sales growth is estimated to be in the low single digits.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be between $185 million to $195 million.
  • Adjusted SG&A is estimated to be between $183 million and $189 million.

Headwinds

  • Costs related to the support center expansion in Arizona will be excluded from Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted SG&A.
  • Capital Expenditures are estimated to be between $280 million to $320 million, primarily related to new shop construction.
  • This estimate includes approximately $10 million in incremental spend related to our roasting facility.
  • This estimate includes $6 million to $10 million in capital expenditures related to the Arizona office expansion.
  • Stock based compensation, which is also excluded from Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted SG&A, is estimated to be in the range of $12 million to $17 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 18 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

11 / 18 earnings

Positive

+33.1%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-38.5%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.2%-14.2%-6.0%
Q4 2025+4.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2025-4.2%+0.8%+5.2%
Q1 2025+8.9%+18.6%+23.4%
Q4 2024+29.1%+31.9%-3.4%
Q3 2024+33.1%+44.0%+64.0%
Q2 2024-19.9%-22.8%-15.6%
Q1 2024+12.1%+27.1%+36.2%
Q4 2023+1.0%+6.2%+23.7%
Q3 2023+1.1%+3.5%+3.6%
Q2 2023+18.2%+19.4%-4.0%
Q1 2023-11.5%-19.4%-6.3%
Q4 2022-8.9%-12.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022+10.7%+2.3%+0.2%
Q2 2022+8.9%+10.9%-12.9%
Q1 2022-38.5%-37.5%-15.7%
Q4 2021-8.3%+2.4%+14.6%
Q3 2021+2.2%-3.1%-22.1%
Q2 2021
Q1 2021
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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