NYSE$BROS

Dutch Bros Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Dutch Bros reported strong Q4 2022 results with revenue growth and new shop openings.

Dutch Bros Inc. reported a 44.1% increase in total revenues to $201.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by 30 new shop openings. System same shop sales decreased by 0.6%, while company-operated same shop sales decreased by 2.1%. The company's net loss was $(2.8) million, an improvement from $(8.2) million in the same period of 2021.

  • Opened 30 new shops, 26 of which were company-operated, across 11 states.
  • Total revenues grew 44.1% to $201.8 million as compared to the same period of 2021.
  • System same shop sales decreased (0.6)%, inclusive of the impact of our fortressing strategy.
  • Net loss was $(2.8) million as compared to $(8.2) million in the same period of 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$202M

Previous: $140M+44.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.03

Previous: $0.02+50.0%
Systemwide sales

$298M

Previous: $241M+24.0%
Systemwide same shop sales

-0.6%

Previous: 10.1%-105.9%
Company-operated same shop sales

-2.1%

Previous: 11.5%-118.3%
Total shop count, end of period

671

Previous: 538+24.7%
Company-operated shops, end of period

396

Previous: 271+46.1%
Franchised shops, end of period

275

Previous: 267+3.0%
Company-operated new openings

26

Previous: 30-13.3%
Franchised new openings

4

Previous: 5-20.0%
Capital Expenditures

$53.2M

Previous: $44.3M+20.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$36.1M

Previous: -$36.3M+0.3%
Net Income

-$2.82M

Previous: -$9.8M+71.3%
Operating Income

$3.77M

Previous: -$7.6M+149.5%
Gross Profit

$54.4M

Previous: $33.8M+60.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$20.2M

Previous: $18.5M+9.0%
Total Assets

$1.19B

Previous: $555M+113.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.7M

Previous: $9.96M+7.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Dutch Bros · Revenue · Quarterly

$202M

Q4 2022+44.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Dutch Bros · $202M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Company-operated shops
    $176M+53.7%
  • Franchising and other
    $26.3M+1.7%

Forward guidance

Dutch Bros is providing the following full-year 2023 outlook: Total system shop openings in 2023 are expected to be at least 150, of which at least 130 shops will be company-operated. Total revenues are projected to be between $950 million and $1 billion.

Tailwinds

  • Total system shop openings in 2023 are expected to be at least 150, of which at least 130 shops will be company-operated.
  • Total revenues are projected to be between $950 million and $1 billion.
  • Same shop sales growth is estimated to be in the low single digits.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be approximately $125 million.
  • Capital expenditures are estimated to be in the range of $225 million to $250 million, which includes approximately $15 million to $20 million for our new roasting facility projected to open in 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 18 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.0%

Avg return

30 days after

61%

11 / 18 earnings

Positive

+33.1%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-38.5%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.2%-14.2%-6.0%
Q4 2025+4.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2025-4.2%+0.8%+5.2%
Q1 2025+8.9%+18.6%+23.4%
Q4 2024+29.1%+31.9%-3.4%
Q3 2024+33.1%+44.0%+64.0%
Q2 2024-19.9%-22.8%-15.6%
Q1 2024+12.1%+27.1%+36.2%
Q4 2023+1.0%+6.2%+23.7%
Q3 2023+1.1%+3.5%+3.6%
Q2 2023+18.2%+19.4%-4.0%
Q1 2023-11.5%-19.4%-6.3%
Q4 2022-8.9%-12.1%-23.3%
Q3 2022+10.7%+2.3%+0.2%
Q2 2022+8.9%+10.9%-12.9%
Q1 2022-38.5%-37.5%-15.7%
Q4 2021-8.3%+2.4%+14.6%
Q3 2021+2.2%-3.1%-22.1%
Q2 2021
Q1 2021
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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