NYSE$AFL

Aflac Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aflac reported mixed fourth-quarter results with a decrease in total revenues but an increase in net earnings.

Aflac Incorporated reported a decrease in total revenues for the fourth quarter of 2023, but net earnings increased. The company continues to focus on growth initiatives in both the U.S. and Japan, with a commitment to increasing dividends and repurchasing shares.

  • Total revenues decreased to $3.8 billion compared to $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Net earnings increased to $268 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared to $196 million, or $0.31 per diluted share a year ago.
  • Adjusted earnings decreased by 10.4% to $732 million.
  • The board of directors declared a first-quarter dividend of $0.50 per share, representing a 19% increase.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.78B

Previous: $4.01B-5.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.25

Previous: $1.29-3.1%
Shareholders' Equity

$22B

No prior period
Shareholders' Equity Per Share

$38.00

No prior period
Adjusted Book Value

$27.5B

No prior period
Adjusted Book Value Per Share

$47.55

No prior period
Adjusted Book Value Excl. FX

$23.8B

No prior period
Adjusted Book Value Excl. FX Per Share

$41.15

No prior period
Net Income

$268M

Previous: $185M+44.9%
Operating Income

$289M

Previous: $524M-44.8%
Gross Profit

$3.78B

Previous: $3.67B+2.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Aflac · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.78B

Q4 2023-5.8%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aflac · $5.07B total across 3 segments · Q1 2022

  • Aflac Japan Revenue
    $3.4B
  • Aflac U.S. Revenue
    $1.6B
  • Corporate and Other Revenue
    $74M-10.8%

Forward guidance

Aflac is focused on new products, distribution strategies, and maintaining a balanced approach to investing in growth and driving long-term operating efficiencies.

Tailwinds

  • Aflac delivered very solid earnings for both the quarter and the year.
  • Actively concentrating on numerous initiatives in the U.S. and Japan around new products and distribution strategies to set the stage for future growth.
  • Fourth quarter medical sales were strong due to the mid-September launch of our new medical insurance product in Japan.
  • Pleased with sales increase for the year, which reflected improvements through agencies and alliances, including Japan Post, Dai-ichi Life and Daido Life.
  • Continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.

Headwinds

  • The market presents challenges in Japan.
  • Weaker yen/dollar exchange rate negatively impacted adjusted earnings per share.
  • Pretax adjusted earnings in the U.S. were lower than a year ago, primarily due to higher adjusted expenses and benefits offset by higher adjusted net investment income.
  • Total adjusted revenues decreased in the Corporate and Other segment due to a decline in adjusted net investment income.
  • Pretax adjusted earnings were a loss in the Corporate and Other segment primarily due to the loss related to the novation transaction and higher volume of tax credit investments.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

46 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.4%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-11.1%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-1.5%-3.3%
Q4 2025+3.4%+2.0%-2.1%
Q3 2025+2.3%+4.4%+0.4%
Q2 2025+3.4%+5.3%+8.1%
Q1 2025-4.7%-2.6%-4.7%
Q4 2024-3.9%-4.0%+1.0%
Q3 2024-4.7%-5.0%+3.6%
Q2 2024+6.6%+1.9%+15.7%
Q1 2024+0.5%+1.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-11.1%-11.0%-6.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+4.2%+5.8%
Q2 2023+5.4%+6.2%+3.1%
Q1 2023+5.6%+7.0%-1.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.3%-6.9%
Q3 2022+3.1%+3.7%+11.0%
Q2 2022+2.5%+3.7%+3.7%
Q1 2022-2.5%-5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.4%+3.8%-4.4%
Q3 2021-3.1%-4.0%-2.7%
Q2 2021+3.4%+1.7%+6.1%
Q1 2021+1.3%+1.8%+5.9%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.1%+7.9%
Q3 2020-7.1%-7.7%+24.0%
Q2 2020+0.2%-2.4%+1.2%
Q1 2020-1.5%-5.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019+2.4%+1.8%-20.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+2.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019-0.1%-1.9%-10.3%
Q1 2019+1.3%+3.0%+6.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%+1.8%+3.8%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.5%+0.5%
Q2 2018+5.8%+6.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018+1.1%+0.9%+0.4%
Q4 2017+1.3%-2.7%-1.2%
Q3 2017-1.1%-0.9%+0.5%
Q2 2017+2.6%+4.6%+4.6%
Q1 2017+0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-4.5%-2.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.0%+2.8%
Q2 2016-1.5%-2.4%-0.8%
Q1 2016+2.1%
Q4 2015-1.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+4.9%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+1.4%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013+3.7%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012+9.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-10.8%
Q1 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2009+7.5%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2009+3.1%
Q3 2008+3.1%
Q2 2008+2.9%
Q4 2008+2.9%
Q2 2009+2.9%

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