NYSE$AFL

Aflac Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aflac reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $1.0 billion and reiterated an increase in the first-quarter cash dividend of 21.2%.

Aflac Incorporated reported a decrease in total revenues to $5.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. Net earnings increased to $1.0 billion, or $1.57 per diluted share, compared to $951 million, or $1.35 per diluted share a year ago. Adjusted earnings increased by 12.6% to $850 million, with adjusted earnings per diluted share increasing 19.6% to $1.28.

  • Total revenues decreased to $5.4 billion in Q4 2021 from $5.9 billion in Q4 2020.
  • Net earnings increased to $1.0 billion, or $1.57 per diluted share, compared to $951 million, or $1.35 per diluted share a year ago.
  • Adjusted earnings increased 12.6% to $850 million.
  • Aflac Japan's pretax adjusted earnings increased 17.9% on a reported basis to ¥100.9 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.43B

Previous: $5.91B-8.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.28

Previous: $1.07+19.6%
Annualized ROE

12.4%

Previous: 11.5%+7.8%
Japan New Annualized Premium Sales

$128M

No prior period
US Sales

$464M

No prior period
Net Income

$1.04B

Previous: $951M+9.3%
Operating Income

$1.23B

Previous: $1.22B+1.4%
Gross Profit

$5.43B

Previous: $6.03B-10.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.05B

Previous: $150B-96.6%
Total Assets

$158B

Previous: $165B-4.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Aflac · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.43B

Q4 2021-8.1%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aflac · $5.17B total across 3 segments · Q4 2021

  • Aflac Japan Revenue
    $3.6B
  • Aflac U.S. Revenue
    $1.6B
  • Corporate and Other Revenue
    -$35M-138.0%

Forward guidance

Aflac anticipates navigating evolving pandemic conditions and remains cautiously optimistic, focusing on prudent liquidity and capital management while continuing share repurchases and integrating growth investments.

Tailwinds

  • The company generated strong earnings for the year, largely supported by the continuation of low benefit ratios associated with pandemic conditions and better-than-expected returns from alternative investments.
  • Aflac is encouraged by the 7.7% sales increase for the year in Japan.
  • Aflac is pleased with the 16.9% sales increase for the year in the U.S.
  • The company is committed to prudent liquidity and capital management.
  • The board decided to increase the quarterly dividend by 21.2% in the first quarter.

Headwinds

  • The company continues to remain cautiously optimistic in the face of ongoing pandemic conditions.
  • Aflac continues to navigate evolving pandemic conditions in Japan, including various states of emergency that may impact the ability to meet face-to-face with customers.
  • Aflac realizes it may face headwinds from pandemic conditions in the U.S.
  • Total revenues were $5.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared with $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020
  • Aflac Japan's net earned premiums were ¥319.3 billion for the quarter, or 4.3% lower than a year ago

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

46 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.4%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-11.1%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-1.5%-3.3%
Q4 2025+3.4%+2.0%-2.1%
Q3 2025+2.3%+4.4%+0.4%
Q2 2025+3.4%+5.3%+8.1%
Q1 2025-4.7%-2.6%-4.7%
Q4 2024-3.9%-4.0%+1.0%
Q3 2024-4.7%-5.0%+3.6%
Q2 2024+6.6%+1.9%+15.7%
Q1 2024+0.5%+1.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-11.1%-11.0%-6.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+4.2%+5.8%
Q2 2023+5.4%+6.2%+3.1%
Q1 2023+5.6%+7.0%-1.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.3%-6.9%
Q3 2022+3.1%+3.7%+11.0%
Q2 2022+2.5%+3.7%+3.7%
Q1 2022-2.5%-5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.4%+3.8%-4.4%
Q3 2021-3.1%-4.0%-2.7%
Q2 2021+3.4%+1.7%+6.1%
Q1 2021+1.3%+1.8%+5.9%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.1%+7.9%
Q3 2020-7.1%-7.7%+24.0%
Q2 2020+0.2%-2.4%+1.2%
Q1 2020-1.5%-5.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019+2.4%+1.8%-20.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+2.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019-0.1%-1.9%-10.3%
Q1 2019+1.3%+3.0%+6.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%+1.8%+3.8%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.5%+0.5%
Q2 2018+5.8%+6.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018+1.1%+0.9%+0.4%
Q4 2017+1.3%-2.7%-1.2%
Q3 2017-1.1%-0.9%+0.5%
Q2 2017+2.6%+4.6%+4.6%
Q1 2017+0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-4.5%-2.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.0%+2.8%
Q2 2016-1.5%-2.4%-0.8%
Q1 2016+2.1%
Q4 2015-1.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+4.9%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+1.4%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013+3.7%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012+9.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-10.8%
Q1 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2009+7.5%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2009+3.1%
Q3 2008+3.1%
Q2 2008+2.9%
Q4 2008+2.9%
Q2 2009+2.9%

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