NYSE$AFL

Aflac Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aflac reported solid earnings results, driven by strategic initiatives in the U.S. and Japan, despite a weaker yen.

Aflac Incorporated reported first quarter net earnings of $1.2 billion, or $1.94 per diluted share, compared to $1.0 billion, or $1.60 per diluted share in the prior year. Total revenues were $4.8 billion, down from $5.2 billion in the first quarter of 2022. Adjusted earnings were $953 million, an increase of 1.2% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per diluted share increasing 7.6% to $1.55. The company deployed $700 million in capital to repurchase 10.3 million common shares.

  • Net earnings increased to $1.2 billion, or $1.94 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted earnings increased 1.2% to $953 million, with adjusted EPS up 7.6% to $1.55.
  • Aflac Japan's pretax adjusted earnings increased 3.2% in yen terms.
  • Aflac U.S. pretax adjusted earnings increased 5.7%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.8B

Previous: $5.27B-9.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.55

Previous: $1.42+9.2%
Annualized ROE

23.8%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$1.19B

Previous: $1.03B+15.1%
Net Income

$1.19B

Previous: $1.03B+15.1%
Operating Income

$1.13B

Previous: $1.14B-0.9%
Gross Profit

$2.45B

Previous: $2.46B-0.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$121B

Previous: $4.28B+2718.7%
Total Assets

$135B

Previous: $147B-8.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Aflac · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.8B

Q1 2023-9%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aflac · $5.07B total across 3 segments · Q1 2022

  • Aflac Japan Revenue
    $3.4B
  • Aflac U.S. Revenue
    $1.6B
  • Corporate and Other Revenue
    $74M-10.8%

Forward guidance

Aflac is focused on initiatives in the U.S. and Japan around new products and distribution strategies, which present both challenges and opportunities for future growth. They are also committed to prudent liquidity and capital management, dividend growth, and tactical share repurchases.

Tailwinds

  • Planned May reclassification of COVID-19 in Japan is encouraging.
  • Continued sales improvements in Japan reflect the ongoing rollout of the new cancer insurance policy.
  • Japan Post Company and Japan Post Insurance began selling the new cancer insurance product.
  • Continued improvement in the productivity of U.S. agents and brokers.
  • Contribution from the buildout of acquired platforms in the U.S., namely network dental and vision and group life and disability.

Headwinds

  • Material weakening of the yen.
  • Numerous initiatives in the U.S. and Japan present challenges.
  • First quarter tends to generate the lowest sales of the year in the U.S.
  • Evolving economic conditions require a defensive position.
  • Unspecified risks related to global capital markets, economy, and COVID-19.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

46 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.4%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-11.1%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-1.5%-3.3%
Q4 2025+3.4%+2.0%-2.1%
Q3 2025+2.3%+4.4%+0.4%
Q2 2025+3.4%+5.3%+8.1%
Q1 2025-4.7%-2.6%-4.7%
Q4 2024-3.9%-4.0%+1.0%
Q3 2024-4.7%-5.0%+3.6%
Q2 2024+6.6%+1.9%+15.7%
Q1 2024+0.5%+1.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-11.1%-11.0%-6.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+4.2%+5.8%
Q2 2023+5.4%+6.2%+3.1%
Q1 2023+5.6%+7.0%-1.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.3%-6.9%
Q3 2022+3.1%+3.7%+11.0%
Q2 2022+2.5%+3.7%+3.7%
Q1 2022-2.5%-5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.4%+3.8%-4.4%
Q3 2021-3.1%-4.0%-2.7%
Q2 2021+3.4%+1.7%+6.1%
Q1 2021+1.3%+1.8%+5.9%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.1%+7.9%
Q3 2020-7.1%-7.7%+24.0%
Q2 2020+0.2%-2.4%+1.2%
Q1 2020-1.5%-5.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019+2.4%+1.8%-20.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+2.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019-0.1%-1.9%-10.3%
Q1 2019+1.3%+3.0%+6.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%+1.8%+3.8%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.5%+0.5%
Q2 2018+5.8%+6.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018+1.1%+0.9%+0.4%
Q4 2017+1.3%-2.7%-1.2%
Q3 2017-1.1%-0.9%+0.5%
Q2 2017+2.6%+4.6%+4.6%
Q1 2017+0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-4.5%-2.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.0%+2.8%
Q2 2016-1.5%-2.4%-0.8%
Q1 2016+2.1%
Q4 2015-1.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+4.9%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+1.4%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013+3.7%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012+9.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-10.8%
Q1 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2009+7.5%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2009+3.1%
Q3 2008+3.1%
Q2 2008+2.9%
Q4 2008+2.9%
Q2 2009+2.9%

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