NYSE$AFL

Aflac Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aflac reported Q4 2020 earnings with increased revenues and net earnings driven by net investment gains.

Aflac Incorporated reported a strong fourth quarter with total revenues of $5.9 billion, a 5.5% increase from the previous year, and net earnings of $951 million, up 21.6% year-over-year. The results were driven by an increase in net investment gains.

  • Total revenues increased by 5.5% to $5.9 billion compared to Q4 2019.
  • Net earnings rose by 21.6% to $951 million, or $1.35 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted earnings remained nearly flat at $755 million, a 0.1% decrease.
  • Aflac repurchased $500 million of its common shares during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.91B

Previous: $5.6B+5.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.07

Previous: $1.03+3.9%
Annualized ROE

11.5%

No prior period
Net Income

$951M

Previous: $782M+21.6%
Operating Income

$1.22B

Previous: $1.06B+14.9%
Gross Profit

$6.03B

Previous: $5.6B+7.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$150B

Previous: $4.9B+2958.7%
Total Assets

$165B

Previous: $153B+8.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Aflac · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.91B

Q4 2020+5.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aflac · $5.07B total across 3 segments · Q1 2022

  • Aflac Japan Revenue
    $3.4B
  • Aflac U.S. Revenue
    $1.6B
  • Corporate and Other Revenue
    $74M-10.8%

Forward guidance

Aflac expects pandemic conditions to continue impacting sales results in the United States and Japan through the first half of 2021. The company anticipates a slow return to normal in the second half of the year, expecting to realize the benefits of their 2020 investments.

Tailwinds

  • Marginal sales improvements have been seen on a sequential basis in the last two quarters.
  • Continued investment in virtual and digital sales methods and promotion of new products.
  • Launched a new medical product in Japan.
  • Closed on the acquisition of Zurich North America’s group benefits business.
  • Announced the national launch of Aflac Dental & Vision.

Headwinds

  • Pandemic conditions continue to impact sales results in the United States and Japan.
  • Earned premium and revenues are also affected by the pandemic.
  • Uncertain economic conditions persist.
  • Claims activity remains a concern in both the U.S. and Japan.
  • Need to remain vigilant as the safety and health of everyone with whom we do business is our greatest priority.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

46 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.4%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-11.1%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-1.5%-3.3%
Q4 2025+3.4%+2.0%-2.1%
Q3 2025+2.3%+4.4%+0.4%
Q2 2025+3.4%+5.3%+8.1%
Q1 2025-4.7%-2.6%-4.7%
Q4 2024-3.9%-4.0%+1.0%
Q3 2024-4.7%-5.0%+3.6%
Q2 2024+6.6%+1.9%+15.7%
Q1 2024+0.5%+1.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-11.1%-11.0%-6.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+4.2%+5.8%
Q2 2023+5.4%+6.2%+3.1%
Q1 2023+5.6%+7.0%-1.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.3%-6.9%
Q3 2022+3.1%+3.7%+11.0%
Q2 2022+2.5%+3.7%+3.7%
Q1 2022-2.5%-5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.4%+3.8%-4.4%
Q3 2021-3.1%-4.0%-2.7%
Q2 2021+3.4%+1.7%+6.1%
Q1 2021+1.3%+1.8%+5.9%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.1%+7.9%
Q3 2020-7.1%-7.7%+24.0%
Q2 2020+0.2%-2.4%+1.2%
Q1 2020-1.5%-5.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019+2.4%+1.8%-20.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+2.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019-0.1%-1.9%-10.3%
Q1 2019+1.3%+3.0%+6.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%+1.8%+3.8%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.5%+0.5%
Q2 2018+5.8%+6.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018+1.1%+0.9%+0.4%
Q4 2017+1.3%-2.7%-1.2%
Q3 2017-1.1%-0.9%+0.5%
Q2 2017+2.6%+4.6%+4.6%
Q1 2017+0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-4.5%-2.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.0%+2.8%
Q2 2016-1.5%-2.4%-0.8%
Q1 2016+2.1%
Q4 2015-1.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+4.9%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+1.4%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013+3.7%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012+9.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-10.8%
Q1 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2009+7.5%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2009+3.1%
Q3 2008+3.1%
Q2 2008+2.9%
Q4 2008+2.9%
Q2 2009+2.9%

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