NYSE$AFL

Aflac Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aflac's Q4 2019 earnings were reported, with net earnings of $782 million and adjusted EPS of $1.03.

Aflac Incorporated reported fourth-quarter results, with total revenues of $5.6 billion and net earnings of $782 million, or $1.06 per diluted share. Adjusted earnings were $756 million, or $1.03 per diluted share. The company affirms its 2020 adjusted EPS outlook and increased its first-quarter cash dividend by 3.7%.

  • Total revenues reached $5.6 billion, up from $5.1 billion in Q4 2018.
  • Net earnings increased to $782 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, compared to $525 million, or $0.69 per diluted share in the previous year.
  • Adjusted earnings were $756 million, a slight decrease from $779 million in Q4 2018.
  • Aflac Japan's pretax adjusted earnings declined 8.8% on a reported basis and 7.2% on a currency-neutral basis.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.6B

Previous: $5.13B+9.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.03

Previous: $1.02+1.0%
Japan Net Premium Income

$3.2B

No prior period
Japan Net Investment Income

$618M

No prior period
US Net Premium Income

$1.4B

No prior period
US Net Investment Income

$180M

No prior period
Net Income

$782M

Previous: $525M+49.0%
Operating Income

$1.06B

Previous: $780M+35.6%
Gross Profit

$5.6B

Previous: $5.11B+9.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.9B

Previous: $4.34B+12.9%
Total Assets

$153B

Previous: $140B+8.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Aflac · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.6B

Q4 2019+9.3%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 16 of 16 quarters(100%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aflac · $5.51B total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • Aflac Japan Revenue
    $3.8B
  • Aflac U.S. Revenue
    $1.6B
  • Corporate and Other Revenue
    $106M

Forward guidance

Aflac aims to produce stable adjusted earnings per diluted share of $4.32 to $4.52, assuming the 2019 weighted-average exchange rate of 109.07 yen to the dollar.

Tailwinds

  • The company is focused on driving future earned premium growth.
  • Aflac is committed to rewarding shareholders through dividend increases.
  • The company is reinvesting in its platform to drive efficiencies.
  • Aflac is balancing reinvestment with a focus on increasing the dividend and repurchasing shares.
  • Share repurchase is expected to be in the range of $1.3 to $1.7 billion in 2020.

Headwinds

  • Aflac Japan saw a decline in total earned premium in 2019 due to limited-pay policies reaching paid-up status.
  • Full-year third sector and first sector protection sales were down in the mid-teens.
  • Aflac U.S. financial results reflected elevated expenses due to ongoing investments.
  • Aflac expects a decline in the range of 0.7% in third sector and first sector protection earned premium for the year.
  • The company's objectives assume stable capital conditions and the absence of compelling alternatives.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

46 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.4%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-11.1%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-1.5%-3.3%
Q4 2025+3.4%+2.0%-2.1%
Q3 2025+2.3%+4.4%+0.4%
Q2 2025+3.4%+5.3%+8.1%
Q1 2025-4.7%-2.6%-4.7%
Q4 2024-3.9%-4.0%+1.0%
Q3 2024-4.7%-5.0%+3.6%
Q2 2024+6.6%+1.9%+15.7%
Q1 2024+0.5%+1.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-11.1%-11.0%-6.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+4.2%+5.8%
Q2 2023+5.4%+6.2%+3.1%
Q1 2023+5.6%+7.0%-1.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.3%-6.9%
Q3 2022+3.1%+3.7%+11.0%
Q2 2022+2.5%+3.7%+3.7%
Q1 2022-2.5%-5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.4%+3.8%-4.4%
Q3 2021-3.1%-4.0%-2.7%
Q2 2021+3.4%+1.7%+6.1%
Q1 2021+1.3%+1.8%+5.9%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.1%+7.9%
Q3 2020-7.1%-7.7%+24.0%
Q2 2020+0.2%-2.4%+1.2%
Q1 2020-1.5%-5.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019+2.4%+1.8%-20.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+2.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019-0.1%-1.9%-10.3%
Q1 2019+1.3%+3.0%+6.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%+1.8%+3.8%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.5%+0.5%
Q2 2018+5.8%+6.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018+1.1%+0.9%+0.4%
Q4 2017+1.3%-2.7%-1.2%
Q3 2017-1.1%-0.9%+0.5%
Q2 2017+2.6%+4.6%+4.6%
Q1 2017+0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-4.5%-2.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.0%+2.8%
Q2 2016-1.5%-2.4%-0.8%
Q1 2016+2.1%
Q4 2015-1.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+4.9%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+1.4%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013+3.7%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012+9.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-10.8%
Q1 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2009+7.5%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2009+3.1%
Q3 2008+3.1%
Q2 2008+2.9%
Q4 2008+2.9%
Q2 2009+2.9%

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