NYSE$AFL

Aflac Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aflac reported Q3 2022 results with net earnings of $1.6 billion.

Aflac Incorporated reported third quarter net earnings of $1.6 billion, or $2.53 per diluted share, compared to $888 million, or $1.32 per diluted share a year ago. Total revenues were $4.8 billion, compared with $5.2 billion in the third quarter of 2021.

  • Total revenues were $4.8 billion, compared with $5.2 billion in the third quarter of 2021.
  • Net earnings were $1.6 billion, or $2.53 per diluted share, compared with $888 million, or $1.32 per diluted share a year ago, reflecting a release of $695 million in deferred taxes in the third quarter.
  • Adjusted earnings in the third quarter were $725 million, compared with $1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2021, reflecting a decrease of 29.7%.
  • Aflac U.S. sales increased 11.8% in the quarter to $334 million, reflecting continued improvement from investment in growth initiatives as well as productivity gains.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.82B

Previous: $5.24B-8.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.15

Previous: $1.53-24.8%
Annualized ROE

25.3%

Previous: 10.6%+138.7%
Free Cash Flow

$1.6B

Previous: $888M+79.7%
Net Income

$1.6B

Previous: $888M+79.7%
Operating Income

$880M

Previous: $1.29B-31.9%
Gross Profit

$2.21B

Previous: $2.35B-5.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$115B

Previous: $146B-21.6%
Total Assets

$128B

Previous: $161B-20.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Aflac · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.82B

Q3 2022-8%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aflac · $5.07B total across 3 segments · Q1 2022

  • Aflac Japan Revenue
    $3.4B
  • Aflac U.S. Revenue
    $1.6B
  • Corporate and Other Revenue
    $74M-10.8%

Forward guidance

Aflac expects sales to improve in the fourth quarter, with sales growth in both Japan and the U.S. segments.

Tailwinds

  • Pandemic conditions in Japan and the U.S. continued to move toward normalcy, contributing to positive sales growth in both segments in the third quarter and momentum into the fourth quarter.
  • Sales continued to improve in the quarter with the launch of new cancer insurance product through agencies in August, generating an increase of 10.2% in Japan.
  • Persistency remained strong in the third quarter in Japan.
  • Benefit ratio will normalize in the fourth quarter given the narrowed scope for deemed hospitalization introduced toward the end of the third quarter in Japan.
  • Continued improvement in the productivity of agents and brokers as we enter what is typically our strongest quarter of the year in the U.S.

Headwinds

  • The company generated solid earnings for the first nine months, despite the weakening yen.
  • We continue to monitor evolving pandemic conditions, as this impacts our ability to meet face-to-face with customers, which continues to be key to a recovery in sales.
  • We continue to expect stronger sales in the fourth quarter, assuming that productivity continues to improve at Japan Post and that we execute on our product introduction and refreshment plans.
  • We continue to work toward reinforcing our leading position and generating stronger sales for the fourth quarter.
  • We continue to generate strong investment results while remaining in a defensive position as we monitor evolving economic conditions.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

46 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.4%

Q1 2012

Best reaction

-11.1%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-1.5%-3.3%
Q4 2025+3.4%+2.0%-2.1%
Q3 2025+2.3%+4.4%+0.4%
Q2 2025+3.4%+5.3%+8.1%
Q1 2025-4.7%-2.6%-4.7%
Q4 2024-3.9%-4.0%+1.0%
Q3 2024-4.7%-5.0%+3.6%
Q2 2024+6.6%+1.9%+15.7%
Q1 2024+0.5%+1.3%+7.4%
Q4 2023-11.1%-11.0%-6.2%
Q3 2023+4.6%+4.2%+5.8%
Q2 2023+5.4%+6.2%+3.1%
Q1 2023+5.6%+7.0%-1.9%
Q4 2022-6.3%-5.3%-6.9%
Q3 2022+3.1%+3.7%+11.0%
Q2 2022+2.5%+3.7%+3.7%
Q1 2022-2.5%-5.7%-0.6%
Q4 2021+1.4%+3.8%-4.4%
Q3 2021-3.1%-4.0%-2.7%
Q2 2021+3.4%+1.7%+6.1%
Q1 2021+1.3%+1.8%+5.9%
Q4 2020-1.2%-0.1%+7.9%
Q3 2020-7.1%-7.7%+24.0%
Q2 2020+0.2%-2.4%+1.2%
Q1 2020-1.5%-5.4%-3.5%
Q4 2019+2.4%+1.8%-20.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+2.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019-0.1%-1.9%-10.3%
Q1 2019+1.3%+3.0%+6.4%
Q4 2018+1.2%+1.8%+3.8%
Q3 2018-4.7%-4.5%+0.5%
Q2 2018+5.8%+6.3%+6.6%
Q1 2018+1.1%+0.9%+0.4%
Q4 2017+1.3%-2.7%-1.2%
Q3 2017-1.1%-0.9%+0.5%
Q2 2017+2.6%+4.6%+4.6%
Q1 2017+0.1%+0.3%+0.1%
Q4 2016-4.5%-2.5%+2.6%
Q3 2016-1.8%-2.0%+2.8%
Q2 2016-1.5%-2.4%-0.8%
Q1 2016+2.1%
Q4 2015-1.2%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+4.9%
Q1 2015-0.2%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+1.4%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013+3.7%
Q4 2012-3.2%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q4 2011+4.2%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012+9.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-10.8%
Q1 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.2%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2009+7.5%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2007+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%
Q3 2009+3.1%
Q3 2008+3.1%
Q2 2008+2.9%
Q4 2008+2.9%
Q2 2009+2.9%

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