NYSE$AFG

American Financial Group Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

American Financial Group reported mixed results for Q2 2023, with decreased core operating earnings but increased net earnings.

American Financial Group's Q2 2023 net earnings increased to $200 million ($2.34 per share) compared to $167 million ($1.96 per share) in Q2 2022. However, core net operating earnings decreased to $202 million ($2.38 per share) from $243 million ($2.85 per share) in the prior year, primarily due to elevated catastrophe losses and lower prior year reserve development in the Specialty P&C insurance operations. The company revised its full-year 2023 core net operating earnings guidance to $10.15 to $11.15 per share.

  • Net earnings per share were $2.34, including a $0.04 per share loss from after-tax non-core items.
  • Core net operating earnings per share were $2.38.
  • Annualized ROE was 17.9%, with a core operating ROE of 18.2%.
  • Net written premiums increased by 10% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.84B

Previous: $1.54B+19.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.38

Previous: $2.85-16.5%
Free Cash Flow

$200M

Previous: $167M+19.8%
Net Income

$200M

Previous: $167M+19.8%
Operating Income

$255M

Previous: $206M+23.8%
Gross Profit

$1.84B

Previous: $1.54B+19.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$988M

Previous: $967M+2.2%
Total Assets

$29B

Previous: $28.1B+3.4%

Revenue & EPS history

AFG · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.84B

Q2 2023+19.6%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Net Earned Premiums
    $1.86B

Forward guidance

AFG revised its full year 2023 core net operating earnings guidance to $10.15 to $11.15 per share.

Tailwinds

  • The higher interest rate environment contributed to meaningfully higher year-over-year investment income.
  • The company is pleased with the performance of its alternative investment portfolio, where returns exceeded expectations during the quarter.
  • New business opportunities contributed to double-digit growth in premiums during the quarter.
  • A continued favorable pricing environment contributed to double-digit growth in premiums during the quarter.
  • Payroll growth contributed to double-digit growth in premiums during the quarter.

Headwinds

  • Elevated catastrophe losses are expected to continue for the second half of the year.
  • Lower profitability in the Specialty Casualty Group is expected to continue.
  • Lower favorable prior year reserve development in workers’ compensation is expected to continue.
  • The impact of social inflation on selected businesses is expected to continue.
  • Overall 2023 calendar year combined ratio is now expected in the range of 89% to 91%, revised upward from previous guidance.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-9.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.8%-2.6%
Q4 2025-0.7%-0.5%+0.4%
Q3 2025+2.7%+8.2%+0.8%
Q1 2025-6.3%-5.0%-3.7%
Q4 2024-6.2%-7.0%-6.5%
Q3 2024+5.5%+9.4%+13.9%
Q2 2024+0.1%+3.2%+7.8%
Q1 2024-0.1%+1.8%+1.7%
Q4 2023+3.1%+3.5%+8.4%
Q3 2023-0.5%+0.9%+6.5%
Q2 2023-7.6%-6.8%-3.6%
Q1 2023-5.8%-5.9%-8.4%
Q4 2022-5.5%-4.2%-6.9%
Q3 2022+0.3%+2.0%-2.3%
Q2 2022-3.4%-1.9%-2.3%
Q1 2022+4.8%+1.8%-1.4%
Q4 2021+2.5%+1.8%+2.2%
Q3 2021+6.7%+5.2%+0.8%
Q2 2021+2.5%+4.4%+9.7%
Q1 2021+0.9%+3.8%+11.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+10.3%+21.4%
Q3 2020+0.5%+4.1%+25.9%
Q2 2020+1.0%+6.5%+8.5%
Q1 2020-9.0%-17.2%+1.4%
Q4 2019+1.2%+4.1%-12.2%
Q3 2019+0.9%+2.8%+7.9%
Q2 2019+3.0%+5.1%+6.1%
Q1 2019-1.0%+0.7%-5.1%
Q4 2018+1.1%-0.0%+5.7%
Q3 2018-0.1%+0.1%+2.6%
Q2 2018+0.8%+0.4%-1.2%
Q1 2018-3.9%-2.3%-2.5%
Q4 2017+6.4%-1.2%-2.1%
Q3 2017-3.4%-2.5%-0.3%
Q2 2017+3.4%+3.2%+0.4%
Q1 2017+3.7%+1.8%+3.2%
Q4 2016+5.6%+5.6%+10.4%
Q3 2016+2.0%-0.3%+11.2%
Q2 2016-1.4%+0.6%+2.9%
Q1 2016+1.6%
Q4 2015-2.1%
Q3 2015-2.5%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-0.5%
Q4 2014+4.7%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q2 2014-0.5%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013+0.9%
Q3 2013+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.0%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012+1.0%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q4 2008+3.6%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011-1.0%
Q3 2011-0.8%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q3 2010-2.9%
Q3 2009-2.9%
Q2 2010+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%

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