NYSE$AFG
American Financial Group Inc · Q2 2023 earnings
Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
American Financial Group reported mixed results for Q2 2023, with decreased core operating earnings but increased net earnings.
American Financial Group's Q2 2023 net earnings increased to $200 million ($2.34 per share) compared to $167 million ($1.96 per share) in Q2 2022. However, core net operating earnings decreased to $202 million ($2.38 per share) from $243 million ($2.85 per share) in the prior year, primarily due to elevated catastrophe losses and lower prior year reserve development in the Specialty P&C insurance operations. The company revised its full-year 2023 core net operating earnings guidance to $10.15 to $11.15 per share.
- Net earnings per share were $2.34, including a $0.04 per share loss from after-tax non-core items.
- Core net operating earnings per share were $2.38.
- Annualized ROE was 17.9%, with a core operating ROE of 18.2%.
- Net written premiums increased by 10% year-over-year.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
AFG · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.84B
Revenue by segment
AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023
- Net Earned Premiums$1.86B—100.0%
Forward guidance
AFG revised its full year 2023 core net operating earnings guidance to $10.15 to $11.15 per share.
Tailwinds
- The higher interest rate environment contributed to meaningfully higher year-over-year investment income.
- The company is pleased with the performance of its alternative investment portfolio, where returns exceeded expectations during the quarter.
- New business opportunities contributed to double-digit growth in premiums during the quarter.
- A continued favorable pricing environment contributed to double-digit growth in premiums during the quarter.
- Payroll growth contributed to double-digit growth in premiums during the quarter.
Headwinds
- Elevated catastrophe losses are expected to continue for the second half of the year.
- Lower profitability in the Specialty Casualty Group is expected to continue.
- Lower favorable prior year reserve development in workers’ compensation is expected to continue.
- The impact of social inflation on selected businesses is expected to continue.
- Overall 2023 calendar year combined ratio is now expected in the range of 89% to 91%, revised upward from previous guidance.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023
+0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.9%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.8%
Avg return
30 days after
59%
40 / 68 earnings
Positive
+6.7%
Q3 2021
Best reaction
-9.0%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +1.0% | -0.8% | -2.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | +8.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | -5.0% | -3.7% | |
| Q4 2024 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -6.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +9.4% | +13.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.1% | +3.2% | +7.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | -0.1% | +1.8% | +1.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | +3.5% | +8.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.5% | +0.9% | +6.5% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -3.6% | |
| Q1 2023 | -5.8% | -5.9% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2022 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -6.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | +0.3% | +2.0% | -2.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.8% | +1.8% | -1.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +6.7% | +5.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | +2.5% | +4.4% | +9.7% | |
| Q1 2021 | +0.9% | +3.8% | +11.3% | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.2% | +10.3% | +21.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +25.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +8.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | -9.0% | -17.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q4 2019 | +1.2% | +4.1% | -12.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +7.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +3.0% | +5.1% | +6.1% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | +0.7% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2018 | +1.1% | -0.0% | +5.7% | |
| Q3 2018 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | |
| Q2 2018 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% | |
| Q1 2018 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2017 | +6.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | |
| Q3 2017 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -0.3% | |
| Q2 2017 | +3.4% | +3.2% | +0.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | +3.7% | +1.8% | +3.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +5.6% | +5.6% | +10.4% | |
| Q3 2016 | +2.0% | -0.3% | +11.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +2.9% | |
| Q1 2016 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -2.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +2.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +4.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -0.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +2.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +0.4% | — | — |
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