NYSE$AFG
American Financial Group Inc · Q3 2022 earnings
Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
American Financial Group reported a decrease in net earnings and core net operating earnings for the third quarter of 2022, driven by lower returns in the alternative investment portfolio. The company also announced a special cash dividend.
American Financial Group's third quarter 2022 net earnings were $165 million ($1.93 per share) compared to $219 million ($2.56 per share) in the 2021 third quarter. Core net operating earnings were $192 million ($2.24 per share) for the 2022 third quarter, compared to $231 million ($2.71 per share) in the 2021 third quarter. The company announced a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share.
- Net earnings per share of $1.93; includes ($0.31) per share in after-tax non-core items.
- Core net operating earnings $2.24 per share, includes $0.36 per share of after-tax catastrophe losses.
- Specialty P&C combined ratio of 91.1% includes 2.5 points of catastrophe losses.
- Announces special cash dividend of $2.00 per share, payable November 22, 2022.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
AFG · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.98B
Revenue by segment
AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023
- Net Earned Premiums$1.86B—100.0%
Forward guidance
AFG expects 2022 core net operating earnings to be in the range of $11.00 to $11.75 per share and an overall 2022 calendar year combined ratio in the range of 86% to 87%. Net written premiums are expected to be 10% to 12% higher than the $5.6 billion reported in 2021.
Tailwinds
- Expects 2022 core net operating earnings to be in the range of $11.00 to $11.75 per share.
- Assumes an overall annual yield of 12% on alternative investments for the full year.
- Expects an overall 2022 calendar year combined ratio in the range of 86% to 87%.
- Expects net written premiums to be 10% to 12% higher than the $5.6 billion reported in 2021.
- Achieving renewal pricing in excess of prospective loss ratio trends in the vast majority of businesses.
Headwinds
- Guidance reflects minimal income from alternative investments in the fourth quarter of 2022.
- Management assumes that continued strong performance of multi-family housing investments will offset weaker performance of traditional private equity investments.
- Guidance continues to reflect an average crop year.
- Catastrophe losses impacted AFG’s underwriting results for the third quarter of 2022 by $39 million.
- Property and casualty net investment income was approximately 12% lower than the comparable 2021 period.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022
+0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.9%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.8%
Avg return
30 days after
59%
40 / 68 earnings
Positive
+6.7%
Q3 2021
Best reaction
-9.0%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +1.0% | -0.8% | -2.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | +8.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | -5.0% | -3.7% | |
| Q4 2024 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -6.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +9.4% | +13.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.1% | +3.2% | +7.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | -0.1% | +1.8% | +1.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | +3.5% | +8.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.5% | +0.9% | +6.5% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -3.6% | |
| Q1 2023 | -5.8% | -5.9% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2022 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -6.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | +0.3% | +2.0% | -2.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.8% | +1.8% | -1.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +6.7% | +5.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | +2.5% | +4.4% | +9.7% | |
| Q1 2021 | +0.9% | +3.8% | +11.3% | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.2% | +10.3% | +21.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +25.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +8.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | -9.0% | -17.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q4 2019 | +1.2% | +4.1% | -12.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +7.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +3.0% | +5.1% | +6.1% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | +0.7% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2018 | +1.1% | -0.0% | +5.7% | |
| Q3 2018 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | |
| Q2 2018 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% | |
| Q1 2018 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2017 | +6.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | |
| Q3 2017 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -0.3% | |
| Q2 2017 | +3.4% | +3.2% | +0.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | +3.7% | +1.8% | +3.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +5.6% | +5.6% | +10.4% | |
| Q3 2016 | +2.0% | -0.3% | +11.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +2.9% | |
| Q1 2016 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -2.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +2.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +4.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -0.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +2.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +0.4% | — | — |
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