NYSE$AFG

American Financial Group Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

American Financial Group reported a decrease in net earnings and core net operating earnings for the third quarter of 2022, driven by lower returns in the alternative investment portfolio. The company also announced a special cash dividend.

American Financial Group's third quarter 2022 net earnings were $165 million ($1.93 per share) compared to $219 million ($2.56 per share) in the 2021 third quarter. Core net operating earnings were $192 million ($2.24 per share) for the 2022 third quarter, compared to $231 million ($2.71 per share) in the 2021 third quarter. The company announced a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share.

  • Net earnings per share of $1.93; includes ($0.31) per share in after-tax non-core items.
  • Core net operating earnings $2.24 per share, includes $0.36 per share of after-tax catastrophe losses.
  • Specialty P&C combined ratio of 91.1% includes 2.5 points of catastrophe losses.
  • Announces special cash dividend of $2.00 per share, payable November 22, 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.98B

Previous: $1.75B+13.1%
EPS (adj)

$2.24

Previous: $2.71-17.3%
Book Value / Share

$46.18

Previous: $61.80-25.3%
Free Cash Flow

$165M

Previous: $219M-24.7%
Net Income

$165M

Previous: $219M-24.7%
Operating Income

$210M

Previous: $267M-21.3%
Gross Profit

$1.98B

Previous: $1.75B+13.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$794M

Previous: $2.83B-72.0%
Total Assets

$29.5B

Previous: $29.9B-1.4%

Revenue & EPS history

AFG · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.98B

Q3 2022+13.1%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Net Earned Premiums
    $1.86B

Forward guidance

AFG expects 2022 core net operating earnings to be in the range of $11.00 to $11.75 per share and an overall 2022 calendar year combined ratio in the range of 86% to 87%. Net written premiums are expected to be 10% to 12% higher than the $5.6 billion reported in 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Expects 2022 core net operating earnings to be in the range of $11.00 to $11.75 per share.
  • Assumes an overall annual yield of 12% on alternative investments for the full year.
  • Expects an overall 2022 calendar year combined ratio in the range of 86% to 87%.
  • Expects net written premiums to be 10% to 12% higher than the $5.6 billion reported in 2021.
  • Achieving renewal pricing in excess of prospective loss ratio trends in the vast majority of businesses.

Headwinds

  • Guidance reflects minimal income from alternative investments in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Management assumes that continued strong performance of multi-family housing investments will offset weaker performance of traditional private equity investments.
  • Guidance continues to reflect an average crop year.
  • Catastrophe losses impacted AFG’s underwriting results for the third quarter of 2022 by $39 million.
  • Property and casualty net investment income was approximately 12% lower than the comparable 2021 period.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-9.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.8%-2.6%
Q4 2025-0.7%-0.5%+0.4%
Q3 2025+2.7%+8.2%+0.8%
Q1 2025-6.3%-5.0%-3.7%
Q4 2024-6.2%-7.0%-6.5%
Q3 2024+5.5%+9.4%+13.9%
Q2 2024+0.1%+3.2%+7.8%
Q1 2024-0.1%+1.8%+1.7%
Q4 2023+3.1%+3.5%+8.4%
Q3 2023-0.5%+0.9%+6.5%
Q2 2023-7.6%-6.8%-3.6%
Q1 2023-5.8%-5.9%-8.4%
Q4 2022-5.5%-4.2%-6.9%
Q3 2022+0.3%+2.0%-2.3%
Q2 2022-3.4%-1.9%-2.3%
Q1 2022+4.8%+1.8%-1.4%
Q4 2021+2.5%+1.8%+2.2%
Q3 2021+6.7%+5.2%+0.8%
Q2 2021+2.5%+4.4%+9.7%
Q1 2021+0.9%+3.8%+11.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+10.3%+21.4%
Q3 2020+0.5%+4.1%+25.9%
Q2 2020+1.0%+6.5%+8.5%
Q1 2020-9.0%-17.2%+1.4%
Q4 2019+1.2%+4.1%-12.2%
Q3 2019+0.9%+2.8%+7.9%
Q2 2019+3.0%+5.1%+6.1%
Q1 2019-1.0%+0.7%-5.1%
Q4 2018+1.1%-0.0%+5.7%
Q3 2018-0.1%+0.1%+2.6%
Q2 2018+0.8%+0.4%-1.2%
Q1 2018-3.9%-2.3%-2.5%
Q4 2017+6.4%-1.2%-2.1%
Q3 2017-3.4%-2.5%-0.3%
Q2 2017+3.4%+3.2%+0.4%
Q1 2017+3.7%+1.8%+3.2%
Q4 2016+5.6%+5.6%+10.4%
Q3 2016+2.0%-0.3%+11.2%
Q2 2016-1.4%+0.6%+2.9%
Q1 2016+1.6%
Q4 2015-2.1%
Q3 2015-2.5%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-0.5%
Q4 2014+4.7%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q2 2014-0.5%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013+0.9%
Q3 2013+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.0%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012+1.0%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q4 2008+3.6%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011-1.0%
Q3 2011-0.8%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q3 2010-2.9%
Q3 2009-2.9%
Q2 2010+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%

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