NYSE$AFG

American Financial Group Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AFG reported net earnings of $263 million, or $3.13 per share, and core net operating earnings of $238 million, or $2.84 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2023.

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) reported a strong performance in Q4 2023, with net earnings of $263 million ($3.13 per share) and core net operating earnings of $238 million ($2.84 per share). The Specialty P&C operations achieved a combined ratio of 87.7%. A special cash dividend of $2.50 per share was declared.

  • Net earnings per share were $3.13 in the fourth quarter.
  • Core net operating earnings per share were $2.84 in the fourth quarter.
  • Specialty Property & Casualty fourth quarter calendar year combined ratio was 87.7%.
  • A special cash dividend of $2.50 per share was declared, payable February 28, 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.08B

Previous: $1.62B+28.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.84

Previous: $2.99-5.0%
Net Income

$263M

Previous: $276M-4.7%
Operating Income

$335M

Previous: $346M-3.2%
Gross Profit

$2.08B

Previous: $1.93B+8.0%

Revenue & EPS history

AFG · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.08B

Q4 2023+28.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 15 quarters(87%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Net Earned Premiums
    $1.86B

Forward guidance

Beginning in 2024, AFG will cease providing guidance. Performance in line with the assumptions underlying our 2024 business plan would result in core operating earnings per share of approximately $11.00 and generate a core operating return on equity excluding AOCI of approximately 20%.

Tailwinds

  • 8% growth in net written premiums compared to 2023
  • A similar combined ratio to the strong result in 2023
  • A reinvestment rate of approximately 5.5%
  • A return of approximately 6% on our $2.4 billion portfolio of alternative investments.
  • Focus on long-term shareholder value creation by generating strong returns on equity that grow book value per share

Headwinds

  • Ceasing to provide guidance beginning in 2024
  • Changes in financial, political and economic conditions
  • Performance of securities markets
  • New legislation or declines in credit quality or credit ratings
  • Levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-9.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.8%-2.6%
Q4 2025-0.7%-0.5%+0.4%
Q3 2025+2.7%+8.2%+0.8%
Q1 2025-6.3%-5.0%-3.7%
Q4 2024-6.2%-7.0%-6.5%
Q3 2024+5.5%+9.4%+13.9%
Q2 2024+0.1%+3.2%+7.8%
Q1 2024-0.1%+1.8%+1.7%
Q4 2023+3.1%+3.5%+8.4%
Q3 2023-0.5%+0.9%+6.5%
Q2 2023-7.6%-6.8%-3.6%
Q1 2023-5.8%-5.9%-8.4%
Q4 2022-5.5%-4.2%-6.9%
Q3 2022+0.3%+2.0%-2.3%
Q2 2022-3.4%-1.9%-2.3%
Q1 2022+4.8%+1.8%-1.4%
Q4 2021+2.5%+1.8%+2.2%
Q3 2021+6.7%+5.2%+0.8%
Q2 2021+2.5%+4.4%+9.7%
Q1 2021+0.9%+3.8%+11.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+10.3%+21.4%
Q3 2020+0.5%+4.1%+25.9%
Q2 2020+1.0%+6.5%+8.5%
Q1 2020-9.0%-17.2%+1.4%
Q4 2019+1.2%+4.1%-12.2%
Q3 2019+0.9%+2.8%+7.9%
Q2 2019+3.0%+5.1%+6.1%
Q1 2019-1.0%+0.7%-5.1%
Q4 2018+1.1%-0.0%+5.7%
Q3 2018-0.1%+0.1%+2.6%
Q2 2018+0.8%+0.4%-1.2%
Q1 2018-3.9%-2.3%-2.5%
Q4 2017+6.4%-1.2%-2.1%
Q3 2017-3.4%-2.5%-0.3%
Q2 2017+3.4%+3.2%+0.4%
Q1 2017+3.7%+1.8%+3.2%
Q4 2016+5.6%+5.6%+10.4%
Q3 2016+2.0%-0.3%+11.2%
Q2 2016-1.4%+0.6%+2.9%
Q1 2016+1.6%
Q4 2015-2.1%
Q3 2015-2.5%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-0.5%
Q4 2014+4.7%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q2 2014-0.5%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013+0.9%
Q3 2013+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.0%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012+1.0%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q4 2008+3.6%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011-1.0%
Q3 2011-0.8%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q3 2010-2.9%
Q3 2009-2.9%
Q2 2010+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%

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