NYSE$AFG
American Financial Group Inc · Q1 2021 earnings
Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
American Financial Group reported first quarter results with net earnings per share of $4.84 and core net operating earnings of $2.38 per share, driven by strong performance in the Specialty P&C segment and alternative investments.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) reported a strong first quarter in 2021, with net earnings attributable to shareholders of $419 million ($4.84 per share) compared to a net loss of $301 million ($3.34 per share loss) for the 2020 first quarter. Core net operating earnings were $206 million ($2.38 per share), a 75% increase from the prior year period. The company increased its full-year core net operating earnings guidance to $7.00 - $8.00 per share.
- Net earnings per share were $4.84, including $2.46 from after-tax non-core items.
- Core net operating earnings were $2.38 per share, a 75% increase year-over-year.
- The annualized return on equity was 29.9%, with a core operating ROE of 14.7%.
- Full-year 2021 core net operating earnings guidance increased to $7.00 - $8.00 per share.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
AFG · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.51B
Revenue by segment
AFG · $1.17B total across 1 segment · Q1 2021
- Net Earned Premiums$1.17B—100.0%
Forward guidance
AFG now expects core net operating earnings in 2021 to be in the range of $7.00 to $8.00 per share. This guidance excludes earnings from discontinued annuity operations and assumes zero earnings on parent company cash.
Tailwinds
- Market to remain firm throughout 2021, allowing solid renewal rate increases.
- Expect an overall 2021 calendar year combined ratio in the range of 89% to 91%.
- Expect net written premiums to be 7% to 10% higher than the $5.0 billion reported in 2020.
- The sale of our Annuity business to Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual) is expected to close in the second quarter and will significantly enhance AFG’s cash and excess capital.
- Based on the strong results reported in the first quarter, we now expect AFG’s core net operating earnings in 2021 to be in the range of $7.00 to $8.00, an increase from our previous range of $6.25 to $7.25 per share.
Headwinds
- Guidance excludes earnings from our discontinued annuity operations that will be sold to MassMutual.
- Guidance continues to assume zero earnings on parent company cash, including the expected $3.4 billion in net cash proceeds.
- Guidance excludes non-core items such as results of discontinued operations, realized gains and losses and other significant items that are not able to be estimated with reasonable precision.
- Guidance reflects a normal crop year.
- Guidance reflects an annualized return of approximately 8% on alternative investments that are marked to market through core earnings over the remaining three quarters of 2021.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021
+0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.9%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.8%
Avg return
30 days after
59%
40 / 68 earnings
Positive
+6.7%
Q3 2021
Best reaction
-9.0%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +1.0% | -0.8% | -2.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | +8.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | -5.0% | -3.7% | |
| Q4 2024 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -6.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +9.4% | +13.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.1% | +3.2% | +7.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | -0.1% | +1.8% | +1.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | +3.5% | +8.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.5% | +0.9% | +6.5% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -3.6% | |
| Q1 2023 | -5.8% | -5.9% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2022 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -6.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | +0.3% | +2.0% | -2.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.8% | +1.8% | -1.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +6.7% | +5.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | +2.5% | +4.4% | +9.7% | |
| Q1 2021 | +0.9% | +3.8% | +11.3% | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.2% | +10.3% | +21.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +25.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +8.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | -9.0% | -17.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q4 2019 | +1.2% | +4.1% | -12.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +7.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +3.0% | +5.1% | +6.1% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | +0.7% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2018 | +1.1% | -0.0% | +5.7% | |
| Q3 2018 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | |
| Q2 2018 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% | |
| Q1 2018 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2017 | +6.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | |
| Q3 2017 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -0.3% | |
| Q2 2017 | +3.4% | +3.2% | +0.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | +3.7% | +1.8% | +3.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +5.6% | +5.6% | +10.4% | |
| Q3 2016 | +2.0% | -0.3% | +11.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +2.9% | |
| Q1 2016 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -2.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +2.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +4.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -0.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +2.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +0.4% | — | — |
Discussion
Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.
Join the conversation
Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.
Sign in with eToro