NYSE$AFG

American Financial Group Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

American Financial Group reported mixed results for Q2 2020. Net earnings were impacted by non-core items, while core operating earnings decreased due to alternative investment adjustments and COVID-19 related losses. The company increased its full-year core net operating earnings guidance, excluding alternative investments.

American Financial Group (AFG) reported net earnings attributable to shareholders of $177 million, or $1.97 per share, for the second quarter of 2020, compared to $210 million, or $2.31 per share, in the second quarter of 2019. Core net operating earnings were $95 million, or $1.05 per share, compared to $192 million, or $2.12 per share, in the prior year. The company increased its full-year 2020 core net operating earnings guidance, excluding the impact of alternative investments, to $6.60-$7.40 per share.

  • Net earnings per share were $1.97, including $0.92 per share in after-tax non-core items.
  • Core net operating earnings before the impact of alternative investments were $1.53 per share, including $0.75 per share in COVID-19 related losses.
  • Core net operating earnings were $1.05 per share, including $0.48 per share loss from alternative investments and $0.75 per share in COVID-19 related losses.
  • Overall Specialty P&C renewal rates were up 13%, excluding workers’ compensation.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.95B

Previous: $1.96B-0.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.05

Previous: $2.12-50.5%
Book Value / Share

$69.10

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$177M

Previous: $210M-15.7%
Net Income

$177M

Previous: $210M-15.7%
Operating Income

$218M

Previous: $259M-15.8%
Gross Profit

$1.95B

Previous: $1.96B-0.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.7B

Previous: $2.37B+13.6%
Total Assets

$70.9B

Previous: $67.7B+4.7%

Revenue & EPS history

AFG · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.95B

Q2 2020-0.5%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Net Earned Premiums
    $1.86B

Forward guidance

AFG provided full year 2020 core net operating earnings per share guidance excluding earnings or losses from alternative investments (marked-to-market through core operating earnings), due to the uncertainty of the implications of COVID-19 and the resulting volatility in the financial markets. AFG now expects its 2020 core net operating earnings per share excluding alternative investments to be in the range of $6.60 to $7.40 per share, an increase from our previous guidance of $6.45 to $7.25 per share.

Tailwinds

  • Overall Specialty P&C Group underwriting margins were excellent.
  • Exceptionally strong renewal pricing is exceeding objectives.
  • P&C pretax core operating earnings, excluding the impact of alternative investments, are expected to be in the range of $615 million to $675 million.
  • Annuity core operating earnings, excluding earnings from alternative investments, are expected to be in the range of $300 million to $320 million.
  • AFG has the ability to lower the crediting rates on $32 billion of annuity reserves by an average of 114 basis points.

Headwinds

  • The continued negative impact of low interest rates.
  • A decline in property and casualty premiums.
  • Renewal rate actions taken on annuity policies near or after the end of their surrender charge period.
  • The impact of COVID-19 on AFG’s results of operations.
  • Uncertainties associated with loss exposures resulting from COVID-19.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

40 / 68 earnings

Positive

+6.7%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-9.0%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.0%-0.8%-2.6%
Q4 2025-0.7%-0.5%+0.4%
Q3 2025+2.7%+8.2%+0.8%
Q1 2025-6.3%-5.0%-3.7%
Q4 2024-6.2%-7.0%-6.5%
Q3 2024+5.5%+9.4%+13.9%
Q2 2024+0.1%+3.2%+7.8%
Q1 2024-0.1%+1.8%+1.7%
Q4 2023+3.1%+3.5%+8.4%
Q3 2023-0.5%+0.9%+6.5%
Q2 2023-7.6%-6.8%-3.6%
Q1 2023-5.8%-5.9%-8.4%
Q4 2022-5.5%-4.2%-6.9%
Q3 2022+0.3%+2.0%-2.3%
Q2 2022-3.4%-1.9%-2.3%
Q1 2022+4.8%+1.8%-1.4%
Q4 2021+2.5%+1.8%+2.2%
Q3 2021+6.7%+5.2%+0.8%
Q2 2021+2.5%+4.4%+9.7%
Q1 2021+0.9%+3.8%+11.3%
Q4 2020+3.2%+10.3%+21.4%
Q3 2020+0.5%+4.1%+25.9%
Q2 2020+1.0%+6.5%+8.5%
Q1 2020-9.0%-17.2%+1.4%
Q4 2019+1.2%+4.1%-12.2%
Q3 2019+0.9%+2.8%+7.9%
Q2 2019+3.0%+5.1%+6.1%
Q1 2019-1.0%+0.7%-5.1%
Q4 2018+1.1%-0.0%+5.7%
Q3 2018-0.1%+0.1%+2.6%
Q2 2018+0.8%+0.4%-1.2%
Q1 2018-3.9%-2.3%-2.5%
Q4 2017+6.4%-1.2%-2.1%
Q3 2017-3.4%-2.5%-0.3%
Q2 2017+3.4%+3.2%+0.4%
Q1 2017+3.7%+1.8%+3.2%
Q4 2016+5.6%+5.6%+10.4%
Q3 2016+2.0%-0.3%+11.2%
Q2 2016-1.4%+0.6%+2.9%
Q1 2016+1.6%
Q4 2015-2.1%
Q3 2015-2.5%
Q2 2015+2.2%
Q1 2015-0.5%
Q4 2014+4.7%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q2 2014-0.5%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013+0.9%
Q3 2013+0.9%
Q2 2013-1.0%
Q1 2013-0.6%
Q4 2012+1.0%
Q3 2012+0.3%
Q2 2012+1.0%
Q4 2008+3.6%
Q4 2009+3.6%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011-1.0%
Q3 2011-0.8%
Q4 2010-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.0%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q3 2010-2.9%
Q3 2009-2.9%
Q2 2010+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%

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