NYSE$AFG
American Financial Group Inc · Q3 2020 earnings
Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
American Financial Group reported third quarter results with increased earnings and a strong ROE.
American Financial Group, Inc. reported a strong third quarter in 2020, with net earnings attributable to shareholders of $164 million, or $1.86 per share. Core net operating earnings were $217 million, or $2.45 per share. The company's annualized return on equity was 12.9%, and the annualized core operating ROE was 17.1%.
- Net earnings per share of $1.86; includes ($0.59) per share in after-tax non-core items
- Core net operating earnings of $2.45 per share; includes $0.61 per share in earnings from alternative investments
- Third quarter annualized ROE of 12.9%; annualized core operating ROE of 17.1%
- Full year 2020 core net operating earnings guidance excluding the impact of alternative investments $7.00 - $7.50 per share, an increase from our previous guidance of $6.60 - $7.40 per share
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
AFG · Revenue · Quarterly
$2.06B
Revenue by segment
AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023
- Net Earned Premiums$1.86B—100.0%
Forward guidance
AFG has provided full year 2020 core net operating earnings per share guidance excluding earnings or losses from alternative investments (marked-to-market through core operating earnings), due to the uncertainty of the implications of COVID-19 and the resulting volatility in the financial markets, particularly in the first six months of 2020.
Tailwinds
- AFG now expects its 2020 core net operating earnings per share excluding alternative investments to be in the range of $7.00 to $7.50 per share, an increase from our previous guidance of $6.60 to $7.40 per share.
- P&C pretax core operating earnings, excluding the impact of alternative investments, in the range of $650 million to $690 million, an increase from our previous guidance of $615 million to $675 million.
- We continue to expect an overall 2020 calendar year combined ratio in the range of 92% to 94%.
- 2020 gross annuity premiums will be between $3.7 billion and $4.0 billion, and will result in growth in average assets and reserves of 5% to 7% in 2020.
- Pretax Annuity core operating earnings for the full year of 2020, excluding earnings from alternative investments, are expected to be in the range of $310 million to $325 million, an increase over our most recent guidance of $300 million to $320 million.
Headwinds
- Low interest rates
- A decline in property and casualty premiums
- Renewal rate actions taken on annuity policies near or after the end of their surrender charge period
- Our current estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on AFG’s results of operations.
- Net written premiums to be down 5% to 9% when compared to the $5.3 billion reported in 2019, due primarily to the run-off of Neon.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020
+0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.9%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.8%
Avg return
30 days after
59%
40 / 68 earnings
Positive
+6.7%
Q3 2021
Best reaction
-9.0%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +1.0% | -0.8% | -2.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | +8.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | -5.0% | -3.7% | |
| Q4 2024 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -6.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +9.4% | +13.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.1% | +3.2% | +7.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | -0.1% | +1.8% | +1.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | +3.5% | +8.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.5% | +0.9% | +6.5% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -3.6% | |
| Q1 2023 | -5.8% | -5.9% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2022 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -6.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | +0.3% | +2.0% | -2.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.8% | +1.8% | -1.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +6.7% | +5.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | +2.5% | +4.4% | +9.7% | |
| Q1 2021 | +0.9% | +3.8% | +11.3% | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.2% | +10.3% | +21.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +25.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +8.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | -9.0% | -17.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q4 2019 | +1.2% | +4.1% | -12.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +7.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +3.0% | +5.1% | +6.1% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | +0.7% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2018 | +1.1% | -0.0% | +5.7% | |
| Q3 2018 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | |
| Q2 2018 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% | |
| Q1 2018 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2017 | +6.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | |
| Q3 2017 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -0.3% | |
| Q2 2017 | +3.4% | +3.2% | +0.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | +3.7% | +1.8% | +3.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +5.6% | +5.6% | +10.4% | |
| Q3 2016 | +2.0% | -0.3% | +11.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +2.9% | |
| Q1 2016 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -2.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +2.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +4.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -0.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +2.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +0.4% | — | — |
Discussion
Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.
Join the conversation
Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.
Sign in with eToro