NYSE$AFG
American Financial Group Inc · Q4 2020 earnings
Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
AFG's fourth quarter net earnings attributable to shareholders were reported at $692 million, or $7.93 per share, compared to $211 million, or $2.31 per share, for the same period in 2019. Core net operating earnings were $269 million, or $3.09 per share, compared to $203 million, or $2.22 per share, in the prior year.
American Financial Group reported strong fourth-quarter results, with net earnings attributable to shareholders reaching $692 million ($7.93 per share) compared to $211 million ($2.31 per share) in the prior year. Core net operating earnings increased to $269 million ($3.09 per share) from $203 million ($2.22 per share) in the 2019 fourth quarter. The increase was driven by higher underwriting profit in the Specialty Property and Casualty insurance operations and higher earnings from alternative investments.
- Net earnings attributable to shareholders for Q4 2020 were $692 million ($7.93 per share), compared to $211 million ($2.31 per share) for Q4 2019.
- Core net operating earnings for Q4 2020 were $269 million ($3.09 per share), compared to $203 million ($2.22 per share) for Q4 2019.
- Specialty P&C insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $179 million for Q4 2020, compared to $89 million for Q4 2019.
- AFG expects core net operating earnings in 2021 to be in the range of $6.25 to $7.25 per share, excluding earnings from annuity operations.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
AFG · Revenue · Quarterly
$1.33B
Revenue by segment
AFG · $1.86B total across 1 segment · Q3 2023
- Net Earned Premiums$1.86B—100.0%
Forward guidance
AFG expects core net operating earnings in 2021 to be in the range of $6.25 to $7.25 per share, excluding earnings from annuity operations, which are being sold to MassMutual and are expected to be reported as discontinued operations effective January 1, 2021.
Tailwinds
- P&C Operations, including parent company interest and expenses are expected to contribute $5.90 to $6.90 per share.
- Real estate alt investments (partnerships) to be acquired by AFG Parent are expected to contribute $0.31 per share, based on an 8% pretax yield on $430 million invested.
- Directly owned real estate to be acquired by AFG Parent are expected to contribute $0.04 per share, based on a 4% yield on $100 million invested.
- The market is expected to remain firm throughout 2021.
- Solid renewal rate increases are expected to continue.
Headwinds
- Parent cash, including cash received at close of the Annuity sale, is expected to generate zero earnings, based on a 0% yield on $3.2 billion in parent cash.
- The projected core net operating earnings for 2021 assumes zero earnings on parent company cash.
- Core earnings per share guidance excludes non-core items such as realized gains and losses, results of discontinued operations, and other significant items that are not able to be estimated with reasonable precision, or that may not be indicative of ongoing operations.
- The above guidance reflects an approximately 8% return on alternative investments that are marked-to-market through core earnings and a normal crop year.
- Uncertainties introduced by COVID-19 may impact results.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020
+0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.9%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.8%
Avg return
30 days after
59%
40 / 68 earnings
Positive
+6.7%
Q3 2021
Best reaction
-9.0%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +1.0% | -0.8% | -2.6% | |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.7% | +8.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | -6.3% | -5.0% | -3.7% | |
| Q4 2024 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -6.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +9.4% | +13.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.1% | +3.2% | +7.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | -0.1% | +1.8% | +1.7% | |
| Q4 2023 | +3.1% | +3.5% | +8.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.5% | +0.9% | +6.5% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.6% | -6.8% | -3.6% | |
| Q1 2023 | -5.8% | -5.9% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2022 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -6.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | +0.3% | +2.0% | -2.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -3.4% | -1.9% | -2.3% | |
| Q1 2022 | +4.8% | +1.8% | -1.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +6.7% | +5.2% | +0.8% | |
| Q2 2021 | +2.5% | +4.4% | +9.7% | |
| Q1 2021 | +0.9% | +3.8% | +11.3% | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.2% | +10.3% | +21.4% | |
| Q3 2020 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +25.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +8.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | -9.0% | -17.2% | +1.4% | |
| Q4 2019 | +1.2% | +4.1% | -12.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +7.9% | |
| Q2 2019 | +3.0% | +5.1% | +6.1% | |
| Q1 2019 | -1.0% | +0.7% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2018 | +1.1% | -0.0% | +5.7% | |
| Q3 2018 | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | |
| Q2 2018 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% | |
| Q1 2018 | -3.9% | -2.3% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2017 | +6.4% | -1.2% | -2.1% | |
| Q3 2017 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -0.3% | |
| Q2 2017 | +3.4% | +3.2% | +0.4% | |
| Q1 2017 | +3.7% | +1.8% | +3.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +5.6% | +5.6% | +10.4% | |
| Q3 2016 | +2.0% | -0.3% | +11.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +2.9% | |
| Q1 2016 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -2.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +2.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +4.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.5% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +0.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -0.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +0.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +1.0% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | -0.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -1.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +1.2% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +2.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +0.4% | — | — |
Discussion
Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.
Join the conversation
Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.
Sign in with eToro