NASDAQ$MRNA

Moderna Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moderna's financial results for Q4 2020 were reported, highlighting increased revenue driven by grant revenue and product sales, along with updates on vaccine manufacturing and pipeline progress.

Moderna reported a significant increase in revenue for Q4 2020, driven by grant revenue and product sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is expanding its manufacturing capabilities and advancing its mRNA development programs.

  • Moderna raised the lower end of its 2021 global manufacturing plan from 600 million to 700 million doses.
  • The company is making capital investments to increase manufacturing capacity up to 1.4 billion doses in 2022.
  • Moderna established 8 commercial subsidiaries in 2020 and plans to expand to Japan, South Korea, and Australia in 2021.
  • The Phase 2/3 study of mRNA-1273 in adolescents has completed enrollment of 3,000 participants.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$571M

Previous: $14.1M+3960.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.69

Previous: -$0.37-86.5%
R&D Expense

$759M

No prior period
SG&A Expense

$79M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$23.3M

Previous: $6.66M+249.8%
Free Cash Flow

$1.24B

Previous: -$102M+1311.5%
Net Income

-$272M

Previous: -$124M-119.3%
Operating Income

-$275M

Previous: -$131M-110.7%
Gross Profit

$221M

Previous: -$107M+306.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.25B

Previous: $236M+2123.1%
Total Assets

$7.34B

Previous: $1.59B+361.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$25.5M

Previous: $20.3M+25.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Moderna · Revenue · Quarterly

$571M

Q4 2020+3,960.8%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 12 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moderna · $1.93B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $1.76B
  • Other Revenue
    $174M

Forward guidance

Moderna anticipates approximately $18.4 billion in product sales from already signed APAs for scheduled delivery in 2021. The cost of sales is expected to be approximately 20% of product sales for fiscal year 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Signed APAs reflect $18.4 billion in anticipated product sales for 2021.
  • Additional discussions are ongoing with governments for 2021 and 2022 deliveries.
  • Replied to UNICEF tender to supply COVAX in 2021 and 2022.
  • Effective tax rate expected in the mid-teen percentage level.
  • Planned capital investments of $350-400 million for 2021.

Headwinds

  • R&D and SG&A expenses expected to increase in Q1 2021.
  • The fourth quarter 2020 reported expense was $0.8 billion.
  • Adjusted Q4 expense, totaling $0.5 billion, excludes $0.3 billion of reported expenses
  • Expenses are now capitalized and expensed through cost of sales.
  • Change from a research and development to a commercial organization.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+8.2%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

17 / 29 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q3 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+6.2%+2.7%
Q4 2025+5.3%+16.2%+31.0%
Q3 2025+2.6%+12.1%+17.6%
Q1 2025-5.3%-14.4%-6.9%
Q4 2024+3.4%+12.5%+8.5%
Q3 2024-9.6%-16.1%-14.2%
Q2 2024-27.4%-31.0%-35.1%
Q1 2024+12.1%+8.6%+27.9%
Q4 2023+10.1%+9.8%+20.4%
Q3 2023+1.7%-3.3%+4.8%
Q2 2023-1.8%-9.5%+2.1%
Q1 2023+5.3%+2.8%+0.3%
Q4 2022-12.0%-12.2%-4.6%
Q3 2022+6.6%+10.8%+22.7%
Q2 2022+20.8%+13.8%-13.8%
Q1 2022-3.1%-7.3%-6.4%
Q4 2021+11.5%+10.2%+22.2%
Q3 2021-31.5%-31.5%-11.3%
Q2 2021-1.3%+9.0%-0.6%
Q1 2021+0.2%-2.4%+26.5%
Q4 2020+6.9%+1.4%-7.9%
Q3 2020+2.6%+5.1%+93.2%
Q2 2020-6.0%-8.2%-20.2%
Q1 2020+21.0%+27.4%+18.9%
Q4 2019+10.1%+25.8%+26.5%
Q3 2019+3.6%+3.0%+12.1%
Q2 2019+7.3%+5.9%+29.2%
Q1 2019-5.3%-0.5%-28.6%
Q4 2018-3.6%-4.4%+21.5%
Q3 2018
Q2 2018
Q1 2018
Q4 2017
Q3 2017
Q2 2017
Q1 2017

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