NASDAQ$MRNA
Moderna Inc · Q4 2020 earnings
Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Moderna's financial results for Q4 2020 were reported, highlighting increased revenue driven by grant revenue and product sales, along with updates on vaccine manufacturing and pipeline progress.
Moderna reported a significant increase in revenue for Q4 2020, driven by grant revenue and product sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is expanding its manufacturing capabilities and advancing its mRNA development programs.
- Moderna raised the lower end of its 2021 global manufacturing plan from 600 million to 700 million doses.
- The company is making capital investments to increase manufacturing capacity up to 1.4 billion doses in 2022.
- Moderna established 8 commercial subsidiaries in 2020 and plans to expand to Japan, South Korea, and Australia in 2021.
- The Phase 2/3 study of mRNA-1273 in adolescents has completed enrollment of 3,000 participants.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Moderna · Revenue · Quarterly
$571M
Revenue by segment
Moderna · $1.93B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023
- Net Product Sales$1.76B—91.0%
- Other Revenue$174M—9.0%
Forward guidance
Moderna anticipates approximately $18.4 billion in product sales from already signed APAs for scheduled delivery in 2021. The cost of sales is expected to be approximately 20% of product sales for fiscal year 2021.
Tailwinds
- Signed APAs reflect $18.4 billion in anticipated product sales for 2021.
- Additional discussions are ongoing with governments for 2021 and 2022 deliveries.
- Replied to UNICEF tender to supply COVAX in 2021 and 2022.
- Effective tax rate expected in the mid-teen percentage level.
- Planned capital investments of $350-400 million for 2021.
Headwinds
- R&D and SG&A expenses expected to increase in Q1 2021.
- The fourth quarter 2020 reported expense was $0.8 billion.
- Adjusted Q4 expense, totaling $0.5 billion, excludes $0.3 billion of reported expenses
- Expenses are now capitalized and expensed through cost of sales.
- Change from a research and development to a commercial organization.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020
+0.8%
Avg return
Earnings day
+1.4%
Avg return
5 days after
+8.2%
Avg return
30 days after
59%
17 / 29 earnings
Positive
+21.0%
Q1 2020
Best reaction
-31.5%
Q3 2021
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +0.0% | +6.2% | +2.7% | |
| Q4 2025 | +5.3% | +16.2% | +31.0% | |
| Q3 2025 | +2.6% | +12.1% | +17.6% | |
| Q1 2025 | -5.3% | -14.4% | -6.9% | |
| Q4 2024 | +3.4% | +12.5% | +8.5% | |
| Q3 2024 | -9.6% | -16.1% | -14.2% | |
| Q2 2024 | -27.4% | -31.0% | -35.1% | |
| Q1 2024 | +12.1% | +8.6% | +27.9% | |
| Q4 2023 | +10.1% | +9.8% | +20.4% | |
| Q3 2023 | +1.7% | -3.3% | +4.8% | |
| Q2 2023 | -1.8% | -9.5% | +2.1% | |
| Q1 2023 | +5.3% | +2.8% | +0.3% | |
| Q4 2022 | -12.0% | -12.2% | -4.6% | |
| Q3 2022 | +6.6% | +10.8% | +22.7% | |
| Q2 2022 | +20.8% | +13.8% | -13.8% | |
| Q1 2022 | -3.1% | -7.3% | -6.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +11.5% | +10.2% | +22.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | -31.5% | -31.5% | -11.3% | |
| Q2 2021 | -1.3% | +9.0% | -0.6% | |
| Q1 2021 | +0.2% | -2.4% | +26.5% | |
| Q4 2020 | +6.9% | +1.4% | -7.9% | |
| Q3 2020 | +2.6% | +5.1% | +93.2% | |
| Q2 2020 | -6.0% | -8.2% | -20.2% | |
| Q1 2020 | +21.0% | +27.4% | +18.9% | |
| Q4 2019 | +10.1% | +25.8% | +26.5% | |
| Q3 2019 | +3.6% | +3.0% | +12.1% | |
| Q2 2019 | +7.3% | +5.9% | +29.2% | |
| Q1 2019 | -5.3% | -0.5% | -28.6% | |
| Q4 2018 | -3.6% | -4.4% | +21.5% | |
| Q3 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2017 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2017 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2017 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2017 | — | — | — |
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