NASDAQ$MRNA

Moderna Inc · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Moderna reported a strong second quarter performance, with revenue of $4.7 billion and GAAP diluted EPS of $5.24.

Moderna's Q2 2022 earnings showcased a robust performance with $4.7 billion in revenue and a GAAP net income of $2.2 billion. The company is reiterating advance purchase agreements for approximately $21 billion in expected deliveries for 2022 and announcing a new $3 billion share repurchase plan. Moderna has four infectious disease vaccines in Phase 3 and expects data from proof-of-concept studies in rare diseases and immuno-oncology later this year.

  • Second quarter 2022 revenues reached $4.7 billion.
  • GAAP net income was $2.2 billion, with a GAAP diluted EPS of $5.24.
  • The company is maintaining advance purchase agreements for expected 2022 delivery of approximately $21 billion.
  • A new $3 billion share repurchase plan has been announced.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.75B

Previous: $4.35B+9.1%
EPS (adj)

$5.24

Previous: $6.46-18.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$219M

Previous: -$65M-236.9%
Free Cash Flow

$1.98B

Previous: $2.72B-27.1%
Net Income

$2.2B

Previous: $2.78B-21.0%
Operating Income

$2.45B

Previous: $3.06B-20.1%
Gross Profit

$3.37B

Previous: $3.6B-6.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.87B

Previous: $5.6B-48.7%
Total Assets

$26B

Previous: $16.2B+61.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$50M

Previous: $35M+42.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Moderna · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.75B

Q2 2022+9.1%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Moderna · $1.93B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $1.76B
  • Other Revenue
    $174M

Forward guidance

Moderna anticipates that for sales in the second half, sales will be greater in the fourth quarter than the third quarter, driven by the timing for approval of our updated COVID-19 vaccines and the related manufacturing ramp-up of new products. Cost of sales as percentage of product sales are expected to be in the mid- 20s percentage range, with possible cost of sales in the high-20s in the event of further charges due to product updates. Full year expenses are expected to be approximately $4 billion. The Company expects an effective tax rate for the full year in the low- to mid-teen percentage range Expect capital investments for 2022 in the range of $0.6-$0.8 billion.

Tailwinds

  • Sales will be greater in the fourth quarter than the third quarter.
  • The company expects an effective tax rate for the full year in the low- to mid-teen percentage range
  • The Board of Directors has authorized an additional share repurchase program for $3 billion in August 2022 to return excess capital to shareholders.
  • Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs): Moderna’s APAs for product sales for which we expect to make delivery in 2022 are approximately $21 billion.
  • Expect capital investments for 2022 in the range of $0.6-$0.8 billion.

Headwinds

  • Possible cost of sales in the high-20s in the event of further charges due to product updates.
  • Adjustment for doses that remain unallocated by COVAX due to lack of demand.
  • Full year expenses are expected to be approximately $4 billion.
  • The company anticipates that for sales in the second half, sales will be greater in the fourth quarter than the third quarter, driven by the timing for approval of our updated COVID-19 vaccines and the related manufacturing ramp-up of new products.
  • Cost of sales as percentage of product sales are expected to be in the mid- 20s percentage range.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+8.2%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

17 / 29 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-31.5%

Q3 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%+6.2%+2.7%
Q4 2025+5.3%+16.2%+31.0%
Q3 2025+2.6%+12.1%+17.6%
Q1 2025-5.3%-14.4%-6.9%
Q4 2024+3.4%+12.5%+8.5%
Q3 2024-9.6%-16.1%-14.2%
Q2 2024-27.4%-31.0%-35.1%
Q1 2024+12.1%+8.6%+27.9%
Q4 2023+10.1%+9.8%+20.4%
Q3 2023+1.7%-3.3%+4.8%
Q2 2023-1.8%-9.5%+2.1%
Q1 2023+5.3%+2.8%+0.3%
Q4 2022-12.0%-12.2%-4.6%
Q3 2022+6.6%+10.8%+22.7%
Q2 2022+20.8%+13.8%-13.8%
Q1 2022-3.1%-7.3%-6.4%
Q4 2021+11.5%+10.2%+22.2%
Q3 2021-31.5%-31.5%-11.3%
Q2 2021-1.3%+9.0%-0.6%
Q1 2021+0.2%-2.4%+26.5%
Q4 2020+6.9%+1.4%-7.9%
Q3 2020+2.6%+5.1%+93.2%
Q2 2020-6.0%-8.2%-20.2%
Q1 2020+21.0%+27.4%+18.9%
Q4 2019+10.1%+25.8%+26.5%
Q3 2019+3.6%+3.0%+12.1%
Q2 2019+7.3%+5.9%+29.2%
Q1 2019-5.3%-0.5%-28.6%
Q4 2018-3.6%-4.4%+21.5%
Q3 2018
Q2 2018
Q1 2018
Q4 2017
Q3 2017
Q2 2017
Q1 2017

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