NASDAQ$METC

Ramaco Resources Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Ramaco Resources reported its strongest financial quarter of the year, driven by growth strategy execution and increased sales volume.

Ramaco Resources reported net income of $30.0 million for Q4 2023, a significant increase compared to the previous quarter. The company's strong performance was attributed to increased sales volume and execution of its growth strategy, shipping at a 4 million ton per annum run rate. The company also reduced its term debt and ended the year with a record level of liquidity.

  • Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was $58.5 million, compared to $45.4 million in the third quarter of 2023.
  • Net income for Q4 2023 was $30.0 million, compared to $19.5 million in the third quarter of 2023.
  • The company shipped at a 4 million ton per annum run rate in both the third and fourth quarters of 2023.
  • The company ended 2023 with a record level of liquidity of $91 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$203M

Previous: $135M+49.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.60

Previous: $0.32+87.5%
Realized Pricing

$175.00

No prior period
Cash Cost per Ton

$107.00

No prior period
Cash Margin per Ton

$68.00

Previous: $68.00+0.0%
Total Tons Sold

988.0K

Previous: 675+146270.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$58.5M

No prior period
Cash Capex

$18M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$18M

Previous: $31.6M-156.8%
Net Income

$30M

Previous: $14.4M+108.8%
Operating Income

$37.3M

Previous: $18.1M+105.6%
Gross Profit

$48.6M

Previous: $39.8M+22.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.2M

Previous: $2.03M+57.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Ramaco · Revenue · Quarterly

$203M

Q4 2023+49.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 13 quarters(23%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Ramaco Resources anticipates sales of 4.2 - 4.6 million tons and production of 4.0 - 4.4 million tons in 2024, with roughly two-thirds of sales exported at index-linked pricing.

Tailwinds

  • Potential for annual sales run-rate above guidance by year-end 2024, including sales of more than 0.5 million tons of purchased coal and carryover inventory.
  • Expected operational coal preparation plant at Maben Complex by Q4 2024, reducing trucking and mine cash costs.
  • Anticipated increasing shipment cadence throughout 2024, with a higher run rate in the second half of the year.
  • Extension and increase in size of existing Revolver facility with KeyBank, NA, providing greater liquidity for growth plans.
  • Expected release of updated Exploration Target report on the Company’s rare earth deposit in Wyoming.

Headwinds

  • Dependence on continued market conditions to achieve sales exceeding guidance.
  • Additional $8 million in initial development capital expenditures related to the coal preparation plant relocation.
  • Anticipated first quarter shipments of 800,000 – 950,000 tons of coal, lower than the targeted run rate for the second half of 2024.
  • Finalization of the new syndicated Revolver facility expected to be completed early in the second quarter.
  • Uncertainty regarding the commercial development of the Brook Mine REE project, pending the updated Target Exploration report.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+19.9%

Q2 2021

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%-2.2%-3.6%
Q4 2025-15.4%-12.4%-11.9%
Q3 2025-16.9%-10.6%-53.9%
Q1 2025-0.4%+3.8%+12.1%
Q4 2024-3.9%+13.8%-8.2%
Q3 2024+10.2%+17.5%+39.4%
Q2 2024+10.9%+12.7%-19.9%
Q1 2024-15.4%-17.7%-16.7%
Q4 2023+7.7%-9.0%-17.3%
Q3 2023-1.8%+46.6%+43.5%
Q2 2023-11.9%-11.6%-15.4%
Q1 2023+9.7%+33.5%+3.2%
Q4 2022-3.9%-4.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022-7.7%-12.1%-9.8%
Q2 2022-17.1%-4.7%-9.7%
Q1 2022+2.6%+11.0%+22.8%
Q4 2021-10.7%+0.4%-1.4%
Q3 2021-10.9%-13.9%-30.8%
Q2 2021+19.9%+25.0%+34.6%
Q1 2021+8.9%+17.4%+32.4%
Q4 2020+8.4%+14.9%+1.8%
Q3 2020-1.3%-2.7%+5.6%
Q2 2020+7.5%+13.3%+20.8%
Q1 2020-8.8%-4.2%+8.8%
Q4 2019-3.9%-9.9%-16.1%
Q3 2019-6.5%-3.1%-11.5%
Q2 2019-9.7%+7.2%+30.5%
Q1 2019-4.3%-5.0%-19.2%
Q4 2018+8.8%+12.0%+2.7%
Q3 2018-17.8%-19.5%-29.9%
Q2 2018+5.9%+24.3%+20.9%
Q1 2018-0.3%+3.2%+13.1%
Q4 2017+1.1%+6.7%-9.2%
Q3 2017-18.4%-26.2%-15.4%
Q2 2017-8.5%-2.5%-1.3%
Q1 2017+2.9%+8.1%-9.1%
Q4 2016+16.2%+9.4%-11.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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