NASDAQ$METC

Ramaco Resources Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss due to force majeure and lower realized pricing.

Ramaco Resources reported a net loss of $4.8 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA was $0.6 million, negatively impacted by force majeure events. Export coal sales reached a quarterly record, and the company anticipates year-end liquidity above $30 million.

  • Net loss was $4.8 million (EPS loss of $0.11), while adjusted EBITDA was $0.6 million in the third quarter of 2020.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was negatively affected by $2.6 million, primarily due to the force majeure of nearly 90,000 tons scheduled to be shipped domestically and subsequently resold into a lower priced spot market.
  • Export coal sales (including to Canada) of almost 300,000 tons were a quarterly record for the Company.
  • Year-end 2020 liquidity is anticipated to be above $30 million, as compared to $21.8 million at year-end 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$39.5M

Previous: $61.4M-35.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.11

Previous: $0.14-178.6%
Realized Pricing

$78.00

No prior period
Cash Cost per Ton

$69.00

No prior period
Cash Margin per Ton

$9.00

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$600K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$20.5M

Previous: -$34M+39.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$25.3M

Previous: -$28.5M+11.2%
Net Income

-$4.78M

Previous: $5.55M-186.1%
Operating Income

-$7.58M

Previous: $6.45M-217.5%
Gross Profit

$3.77M

Previous: $16.4M-77.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$6.36M

Previous: $5.5M+15.7%
Total Assets

$241M

Previous: $228M+6.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.09M

Previous: $1.1M-1.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Ramaco · Revenue · Quarterly

$39.5M

Q3 2020-35.7%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 16 quarters(44%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Ramaco Resources expects to end the year with over $30 million in liquidity and anticipates a record fourth quarter of shipping over 500,000 total tons. The company has placed roughly 1.1 million mostly high-vol tons for 2021 at an average price of $84 per ton.

Tailwinds

  • Expect to end the year with over $30 million in liquidity.
  • Have now placed roughly 1.1 million mostly high-vol tons for 2021 at an average price of $84 per ton.
  • Markets are stronger than these prices might suggest given the contango in the forward price curve.
  • Reserved over one million tons of additional production to be placed into export markets throughout 2021.
  • Anticipate a record fourth quarter of shipping over 500,000 total tons.

Headwinds

  • Uncertainties of operating in today’s unprecedented COVID-19 conditions.
  • Force majeures negatively impacted cost structure.
  • Metallurgical coal price indices hit a multi-year low in the third quarter, due to COVID-19 related demand concerns.
  • Shipments were intermittent, due to the impact of COVID-19.
  • Received force majeure notices from two customers, which could adversely affect up to 10% of the total contracted sales volumes.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+19.9%

Q2 2021

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%-2.2%-3.6%
Q4 2025-15.4%-12.4%-11.9%
Q3 2025-16.9%-10.6%-53.9%
Q1 2025-0.4%+3.8%+12.1%
Q4 2024-3.9%+13.8%-8.2%
Q3 2024+10.2%+17.5%+39.4%
Q2 2024+10.9%+12.7%-19.9%
Q1 2024-15.4%-17.7%-16.7%
Q4 2023+7.7%-9.0%-17.3%
Q3 2023-1.8%+46.6%+43.5%
Q2 2023-11.9%-11.6%-15.4%
Q1 2023+9.7%+33.5%+3.2%
Q4 2022-3.9%-4.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022-7.7%-12.1%-9.8%
Q2 2022-17.1%-4.7%-9.7%
Q1 2022+2.6%+11.0%+22.8%
Q4 2021-10.7%+0.4%-1.4%
Q3 2021-10.9%-13.9%-30.8%
Q2 2021+19.9%+25.0%+34.6%
Q1 2021+8.9%+17.4%+32.4%
Q4 2020+8.4%+14.9%+1.8%
Q3 2020-1.3%-2.7%+5.6%
Q2 2020+7.5%+13.3%+20.8%
Q1 2020-8.8%-4.2%+8.8%
Q4 2019-3.9%-9.9%-16.1%
Q3 2019-6.5%-3.1%-11.5%
Q2 2019-9.7%+7.2%+30.5%
Q1 2019-4.3%-5.0%-19.2%
Q4 2018+8.8%+12.0%+2.7%
Q3 2018-17.8%-19.5%-29.9%
Q2 2018+5.9%+24.3%+20.9%
Q1 2018-0.3%+3.2%+13.1%
Q4 2017+1.1%+6.7%-9.2%
Q3 2017-18.4%-26.2%-15.4%
Q2 2017-8.5%-2.5%-1.3%
Q1 2017+2.9%+8.1%-9.1%
Q4 2016+16.2%+9.4%-11.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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