NASDAQ$METC

Ramaco Resources Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income of $26.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $50.7 million, which were 282% and 185% respectively above the prior highest third quarter on record, despite a $3.9 million negative impact from idle costs at the Berwind mine.

Ramaco Resources reported a record third quarter, with net income increasing by over 280% compared to the same period last year, driven by higher realized pricing. The company is fully sold out for 2022 and has committed 1.8 million tons for 2023 delivery. The refurbishment of the Berwind Preparation Plant is nearing completion, expected to lower cash costs.

  • Net income of $26.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $50.7 million were significantly above the prior highest third quarter on record.
  • The Company is now fully sold out for 2022 at an average price of $210 per short ton FOB mine.
  • Work is nearing completion of the refurbishment and upgrade of the Berwind Preparation Plant, anticipated to materially lower cash costs.
  • The Company is providing an initial framework for its proposed 2023 shareholder return program, including progressive dividend increases and share repurchase.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$137M

Previous: $76.4M+79.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.60

Previous: $0.16+275.0%
Realized Pricing

$202.00

Previous: $105.00+92.4%
Cash Cost per Ton

$98.00

No prior period
Cash Margin per Ton

$104.00

No prior period
Total Tons Sold

608

Previous: 644.0K-99.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$91.4M

Previous: -$17.6M-418.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$64.5M

Previous: -$10.6M-507.9%
Net Income

$26.9M

Previous: $7.04M+282.4%
Operating Income

$36.7M

Previous: $8.77M+318.5%
Gross Profit

$57.3M

Previous: $21.6M+165.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$46.6M

Previous: $46.7M-0.1%
Total Assets

$562M

Previous: $299M+88.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.02M

Previous: $1.34M+50.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Ramaco · Revenue · Quarterly

$137M

Q3 2022+79.3%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 3 of 13 quarters(23%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company expects a record fourth quarter in 2022 based on being fully sold out for the year. Looking ahead to 2023, the company anticipates almost doubling 2023 production and expects to place over 60% of its coal into the export markets.

Tailwinds

  • The plant will materially lower our cash costs from the Berwind Complex by avoiding millions of dollars of annual trucking costs.
  • It will similarly reduce logistical challenges by elimination of a 25-mile truck haul to our Knox Creek preparation plant.
  • Our overall mine costs across all operations came down around 8% this quarter and have again positioned us as a peer cost leader in the Central Appalachian markets.
  • We recently processed our first tons of coal at our Berwind preparation plant.
  • In late September, we closed on the accretive Maben low vol reserve acquisition, which we anticipate being a meaningful earnings contributor in 2023.

Headwinds

  • Results are below what we would have hoped given the combination of the unfortunate Berwind ignition event in early July.
  • Declines in seaborne coal pricing
  • Continued macro pressure on worldwide steel demand
  • Ongoing logistical rail challenges
  • Macro headwinds in the overall economic climate

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+19.9%

Q2 2021

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%-2.2%-3.6%
Q4 2025-15.4%-12.4%-11.9%
Q3 2025-16.9%-10.6%-53.9%
Q1 2025-0.4%+3.8%+12.1%
Q4 2024-3.9%+13.8%-8.2%
Q3 2024+10.2%+17.5%+39.4%
Q2 2024+10.9%+12.7%-19.9%
Q1 2024-15.4%-17.7%-16.7%
Q4 2023+7.7%-9.0%-17.3%
Q3 2023-1.8%+46.6%+43.5%
Q2 2023-11.9%-11.6%-15.4%
Q1 2023+9.7%+33.5%+3.2%
Q4 2022-3.9%-4.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022-7.7%-12.1%-9.8%
Q2 2022-17.1%-4.7%-9.7%
Q1 2022+2.6%+11.0%+22.8%
Q4 2021-10.7%+0.4%-1.4%
Q3 2021-10.9%-13.9%-30.8%
Q2 2021+19.9%+25.0%+34.6%
Q1 2021+8.9%+17.4%+32.4%
Q4 2020+8.4%+14.9%+1.8%
Q3 2020-1.3%-2.7%+5.6%
Q2 2020+7.5%+13.3%+20.8%
Q1 2020-8.8%-4.2%+8.8%
Q4 2019-3.9%-9.9%-16.1%
Q3 2019-6.5%-3.1%-11.5%
Q2 2019-9.7%+7.2%+30.5%
Q1 2019-4.3%-5.0%-19.2%
Q4 2018+8.8%+12.0%+2.7%
Q3 2018-17.8%-19.5%-29.9%
Q2 2018+5.9%+24.3%+20.9%
Q1 2018-0.3%+3.2%+13.1%
Q4 2017+1.1%+6.7%-9.2%
Q3 2017-18.4%-26.2%-15.4%
Q2 2017-8.5%-2.5%-1.3%
Q1 2017+2.9%+8.1%-9.1%
Q4 2016+16.2%+9.4%-11.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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