NASDAQ$METC

Ramaco Resources Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for Q4 and full year 2022.

Ramaco Resources reported a net income of $14.4 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, for the three months ended December 31, 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was $31.9 million. Results were affected by extreme cold temperatures and a drop in API2 index pricing.

  • Net income of $14.4 million (diluted EPS of $0.32).
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $31.9 million.
  • Berwind Preparation Plant refurbishment and upgrade completed in Q4 2022.
  • First shipments made this quarter into India.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$135M

Previous: $87.5M+54.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.32

Previous: $0.42-23.8%
Cash Margin per Ton

$68.00

Previous: $66.00+3.0%
Total Tons Sold

675

Previous: 535.0K-99.9%
Capital Expenditures

$31.6M

Previous: $11.8M+167.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$2.56M

Previous: $3.76M-168.0%
Net Income

$14.4M

Previous: $18.6M-22.8%
Operating Income

$18.1M

Previous: $22.5M-19.5%
Gross Profit

$39.8M

Previous: $35.9M+11.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$35.6M

Previous: $21.9M+62.7%
Total Assets

$596M

Previous: $329M+81.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.03M

Previous: $1.34M+51.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Ramaco · Revenue · Quarterly

$135M

Q4 2022+54.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 3 of 12 quarters(25%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Ramaco Resources anticipates an ~825,000 ton increase in production over 2022 at the high end of guidance. Expects to pay down the majority of their remaining debt in order to maintain their strong balance sheet. Lastly, they will continue to pursue their dual longer-term objectives of combining an increase in profitable production with a steady growth in return of capital to their shareholders.

Tailwinds

  • The Company expects that approximately two thirds of its 2023 production at the high end of guidance will be sold as mostly floating index priced export business to take advantage of any upward pricing environment.
  • The mine returned to operations last week, and we expect it will hit full production from the first section by the third quarter of 2023.
  • In late April, the Company expects a 50% increase from 2 million to 3 million tons per year in the annualized processing and shipping capacity at the Elk Creek preparation plant.
  • In 2023 we anticipate an ~825,000 ton increase in production over 2022 at the high end of guidance.
  • We also expect to pay down the majority of our remaining debt in order to maintain our strong balance sheet.

Headwinds

  • The Company’s net income and Adjusted EBITDA were affected by extreme cold temperatures that caused approximately 150,000 tons of shipments to be pushed into January 2023 due to negative rail and port performance.
  • Company earnings were negatively impacted by the 50% drop during December in API2 index pricing on a large seaborne met coal sale for thermal use into Europe.
  • We had the unfortunate ignition at Berwind in July. This cost us several hundred thousand tons of projected production in 2022 and with it substantial expected earnings.
  • At the time of the contract, the API2 index was priced around $400 per ton. Unfortunately, the API2 index moved against us and our realized pricing dropped by almost two-thirds over the course of the contract.
  • We now estimate that last year rail and logistics issues negatively impacted our earnings each quarter by an average of $14 million of Adjusted EBITDA or $11 million of net income.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+19.9%

Q2 2021

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%-2.2%
Q4 2025-15.4%-12.4%-11.9%
Q3 2025-16.9%-10.6%-53.9%
Q1 2025-0.4%+3.8%+12.1%
Q4 2024-3.9%+13.8%-8.2%
Q3 2024+10.2%+17.5%+39.4%
Q2 2024+10.9%+12.7%-19.9%
Q1 2024-15.4%-17.7%-16.7%
Q4 2023+7.7%-9.0%-17.3%
Q3 2023-1.8%+46.6%+43.5%
Q2 2023-11.9%-11.6%-15.4%
Q1 2023+9.7%+33.5%+3.2%
Q4 2022-3.9%-4.5%-13.2%
Q3 2022-7.7%-12.1%-9.8%
Q2 2022-17.1%-4.7%-9.7%
Q1 2022+2.6%+11.0%+22.8%
Q4 2021-10.7%+0.4%-1.4%
Q3 2021-10.9%-13.9%-30.8%
Q2 2021+19.9%+25.0%+34.6%
Q1 2021+8.9%+17.4%+32.4%
Q4 2020+8.4%+14.9%+1.8%
Q3 2020-1.3%-2.7%+5.6%
Q2 2020+7.5%+13.3%+20.8%
Q1 2020-8.8%-4.2%+8.8%
Q4 2019-3.9%-9.9%-16.1%
Q3 2019-6.5%-3.1%-11.5%
Q2 2019-9.7%+7.2%+30.5%
Q1 2019-4.3%-5.0%-19.2%
Q4 2018+8.8%+12.0%+2.7%
Q3 2018-17.8%-19.5%-29.9%
Q2 2018+5.9%+24.3%+20.9%
Q1 2018-0.3%+3.2%+13.1%
Q4 2017+1.1%+6.7%-9.2%
Q3 2017-18.4%-26.2%-15.4%
Q2 2017-8.5%-2.5%-1.3%
Q1 2017+2.9%+8.1%-9.1%
Q4 2016+16.2%+9.4%-11.2%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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