NASDAQ$MERC

Mercer International Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mercer International Inc. reported a decrease in operating EBITDA and net income compared to the same quarter last year, influenced by lower sales prices, higher costs, and the German energy windfall tax, while pulp sales remained strong.

Mercer International Inc. reported fourth-quarter net income of $20.0 million and Operating EBITDA of $96.1 million. The results reflect strong pulp sales offset by lower sales prices, higher costs, and the impact of the German energy windfall tax.

  • Fourth quarter net income was $20.0 million.
  • Operating EBITDA was $96.1 million.
  • Pulp sales were strong, offsetting lower sales prices and higher costs.
  • The German energy windfall tax negatively affected results by approximately $49 million compared to the prior quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$583M

Previous: $519M+12.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.30

Previous: $1.12-73.2%
Avg Lumber Sales Realizations

$454.00

Previous: $689.00-34.1%
Capital Expenditures

$49.9M

Previous: $33.7M+47.8%
Free Cash Flow

$782K

Previous: -$3.12M+125.1%
Net Income

$20M

Previous: $74.5M-73.1%
Operating Income

$47.3M

Previous: $130M-63.6%
Gross Profit

$83M

Previous: $184M-54.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$354M

Previous: $346M+2.4%
Total Assets

$2.73B

Previous: $2.35B+15.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.06M

Previous: -$196K+1659.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Mercer · Revenue · Quarterly

$583M

Q4 2022+12.4%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 14 quarters(79%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mercer · $468M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Pulp Segment
    $349M-23.6%
  • Solid Wood Segment
    $120M+61.0%

Forward guidance

Mercer anticipates modestly higher NBSK pulp prices in China due to reopening and seasonal demand, but expects declining prices in Europe and North America due to inflationary pressures. Lumber prices are expected to increase modestly due to curtailments and low inventory, offset by economic uncertainty.

Tailwinds

  • Expect modestly higher NBSK pulp prices in China due to China's reopening after lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and the seasonal demand increase after the lunar new year.
  • Expect lumber prices to modestly increase in the first half of 2023 due to producer curtailments.
  • Expect lumber prices to modestly increase in the first half of 2023 due to low customer inventory levels.
  • Expect lumber prices to modestly increase in the first half of 2023 due to the start of the construction season.
  • Mercer has strong operational foundation and the many options it gives us as we look to continue to grow and diversify our solid wood and bio-products revenues.

Headwinds

  • Expect modestly declining NBSK pulp prices in Europe and North America in the first half of 2023 as a result of lower demand due to inflationary pressures negatively impacting paper demand.
  • For NBHK pulp we currently expect prices to decrease in the first half of 2023 due to additional supply coming online.
  • Positive impacts will be partially offset by lower demand caused by continued economic uncertainty due to inflation and higher interest rates.
  • The Stendal mill is currently running at or about capacity and the repairs related to the fire are expected to be completed in the second quarter.
  • Mercer will continue to run the Company based on continuous improvement to enhance efficiency, lower costs and manage our liquidity prudently to enhance value.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+24.5%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-15.5%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.6%-26.9%-24.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-6.3%-11.7%
Q1 2025-7.3%-20.0%-15.0%
Q4 2024+16.9%+22.8%-1.1%
Q3 2024-0.2%-2.3%-4.3%
Q2 2024+6.6%+0.8%-12.6%
Q1 2024-2.4%-3.3%-17.2%
Q4 2023+9.1%+7.7%+20.4%
Q3 2023+22.4%+19.3%+23.4%
Q2 2023+7.1%-4.9%+7.1%
Q1 2023-5.1%-3.6%-6.7%
Q4 2022-2.4%-5.6%-17.8%
Q3 2022-4.7%-11.6%-3.4%
Q2 2022+0.0%-5.4%+1.8%
Q1 2022+1.4%+3.5%-5.4%
Q4 2021+1.4%+4.6%+11.0%
Q3 2021+2.2%+0.3%+5.7%
Q2 2021-0.3%+0.9%+0.4%
Q1 2021-3.8%-5.8%-13.4%
Q4 2020-4.8%-2.2%+5.9%
Q3 2020+6.8%+16.5%+39.9%
Q2 2020-6.9%-10.5%+6.0%
Q1 2020-2.9%-13.9%-16.1%
Q4 2019-5.5%-4.5%-30.8%
Q3 2019+3.4%+6.9%+1.9%
Q2 2019-5.4%-10.6%-7.6%
Q1 2019+23.8%+23.8%+2.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-3.7%-9.4%
Q3 2018-8.0%-13.0%-30.8%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.2%+5.7%
Q1 2018+1.5%+7.1%+20.6%
Q4 2017+1.5%-2.3%-0.8%
Q3 2017-2.4%+2.8%+0.0%
Q2 2017-7.0%-9.0%-9.0%
Q1 2017-2.0%-5.2%-7.6%
Q4 2016+0.4%+4.2%+2.1%
Q3 2016+1.9%+1.3%+23.2%
Q2 2016-3.2%-2.7%+2.9%
Q1 2016-12.8%
Q4 2015+24.5%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015-0.9%
Q1 2015-2.4%
Q4 2014+0.9%
Q3 2014+11.4%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+8.3%
Q4 2013+0.6%
Q3 2013+5.6%
Q2 2013+0.0%
Q1 2013+0.5%
Q4 2012-0.7%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012+7.2%
Q1 2011-0.1%
Q1 2012+0.6%
Q4 2009-0.3%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q3 2011-5.7%
Q3 2010-5.7%
Q2 2010-9.1%
Q2 2011-9.1%
Q4 2010-9.1%
Q1 2010-15.5%

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